Psagot sees billion-dollar sales for Parkinson's therapy

Teva Pharmaceutical Industries could reach sales of $1 billion on Azilect by the year 2011, predicts analyst Limor Gruber of Psagot. "The global market for Parkinson's Disease drugs is estimated at $4 billion (a year)," she wrote.

Azilect's edge over other treatments for the neuro-degenerative disease lies in its evidently unique quality of being able to slow the progression of the disease. Gruber predicts Azilect sales will total $150 million in 2008, and adds that the news Teva announced yesterday, about the positive results of clinical trials, help assuage concerns about generic competition for Copaxone, Teva's flagship brand drug for multiple sclerosis. In any case she doesn't see generic competition for Copaxone arising before 2014, which is when patents protecting that drug run out.

Analyst Yoav Burgan of Leader Capital Markets isn't hastening to update his model for Teva, though. Teva's announcement yesterday is real news, he says, but it's the kind that has a long-run impact. The development isn't likely to impact sales seriously until 2009, which is when Teva hopes the FDA will allow Azilect to be marketed as an agent that slows the disease's progression.

Clal Finance analyst Gal Reiter points out that until now, Azilect had been perceived as an "insignificant brand drug" for Teva, but now it has blockbuster potential.

"If in the past we estimated its sales potential at $300 million (a year), now we see that potential doubling," he wrote. At present, Azilect is protected by a patent that expires in 2012, but the trials could translate into protection through 2017. However, he, too, cautions that Azilect's impact on Teva's results will not be immediate.