Will uranium shortage really slow down the Iranian nuclear program?

Iran is facing a shortage of uranium, according to assessments by Western analysts that were published yesterday in The Times of London. The material is essential for Iran's nuclear plans, but unlike the impression given by the report, intelligence assessments maintain that even if the shortage is real, it will not affect Iran's ability to develop nuclear weapons in one to two years.

According to diplomatic sources, Iran's stock of yellow cake uranium from uranium ore is estimated to be close to running out, and Western powers have embarked on a major diplomatic effort to convince uranium producers not to sell any to the Islamic Republic.

Among the countries being targeted in the diplomatic offensive are Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Brazil, all major uranium producers.

Iran's supply of several thousand tons of yellow cake originated in South Africa and was acquired by the Shah as part of a civil nuclear program. Even though Iran is trying to produce uranium from local mines, it is not believed to have enough to maintain a nuclear program on its own, because the mines are small and very expensive to run, and the material is of poor quality.

The sanctions imposed on Iran by the United Nations Security Council three years ago state that no materials, equipment or technology should be sold to Iran for its nuclear program.

Iran is actively trying to develop a military nuclear capability by enriching uranium with centrifuges. Iran acquires raw material and puts it through a chemical process that produces a material that is essentially uranium in powder form. The material is then converted into uranium hexafluoride gas at a plant in Esfahan. From there the material is taken to Natanz for enrichment, through the running of some 3,000 centrifuges, though the degree of enrichment is relatively low and insufficient for the production of sufficient fissile material for a bomb.

Iran, however, has the technology to enrich uranium at its Natanz plant to weapons grade 90 percent enrichment and International Atomic Energy Agency officials suspect that it is doing just that at a secret facility.

It is estimated that 200 kilograms of yellow cake could produce one kilogram of weapons-grade uranium. About 20 kilograms of highly enriched uranium are required for one bomb. Tehran's relative shortage of uranium raises questions about its claims of pursuing a peaceful civil nuclear program. Much larger quantities of yellow cake than it can produce from its own mines are necessary for it to have enough fuel for a civil nuclear program. "You need 200 tons per year just for one 1,000 megawatt power station," an IAEA source said.