Race to the White House: The big election questions

How should we read the results of the second Super Tuesday?

Last Tuesday's debate between Democratic presidential contenders Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton was the biggest thing to hit Cleveland, Jay Leno joked last week. But Ohio is back on the map this week as one of four states- the others are Texas, Vermont and Rhode Island- to hold Democratic primaries on Tuesday. It has turned into a battleground state where the pouring rain from Cleveland to Columbus, replete with flood warnings, became a major focus of primaries speculation. Would young and less committed Obama supporters stay home, commentators wanted to know, or would the rain make it harder for elderly Clinton supporters to get to the polls?

This column, which was written before the election results came in, aims to advise readers how to understand them and what to look for.

Is Clinton dropping out?

This is the big question. If she wins in Texas and Ohio, the answer is no. If she loses in both states, the answer is yes. And what if she wins in one- Ohio, it seems- and loses in the other? In such a case, the answer is maybe. Bill Clinton and his big mouth already said a few days ago that his wife has no interest in a race without a clear victory, but the Clinton campaign has been trying to tone down the significance of that comment. What is clear is that party leaders want to see a frontrunner before the battle gets really ugly, and certainly do not want a big fight at the convention this summer. That's why if Hillary Clinton loses another big state, she will be under a lot of pressure to drop out of the race.

Can Obama get the number of delegates he needs to win?

Not right now, and not even if he scores another victory. Because of the Democratic Party's use of proportional representation to allocate delegates, a close race makes it very difficult for a candidate to receive the necessary threshold share of the vote. If there is a clear frontrunner, the superdelegates will trickle into that candidate's camp. That is how either Obama or Clinton will win a majority, whether in the next few weeks or closer to the convention.

Which demographic trends are worth examining?

Have women gone back to voting for Clinton? Is there a clear division between blue-collar voters and white-collar voters? And what happened to the Hispanic vote? It is very important for Obama to get Hispanic voters, because he will need those votes in the general election if he wins the nomination, especially since presumptive Republican candidate John McCain has a good chance of getting the Hispanic vote due to his stance on immigration.

What about the Republicans?

If McCain is lucky, he will already have gotten the necessary majority. That will rid Mike Huckabee of his last excuse to stay in the race.

What's the problem with Obama and Israel?

Irrespective of the results of yesterday's primaries, we asked the Israel Factor team - a panel of experts following the race for Haaretz from the Israel point of view- why they ranked Obama at the bottom. It turned out that the panel thinks Obama doesn't have the necessary experience to deal with the problems of the Middle East. And it's not so much that the panel sees Obama as bad for Israel, but rather that the panel sees the other candidates as particularly good for Israel.

These responses are both good news and bad news for Obama. On the one hand, the panel is not scared of his candidacy; it is not particularly worried about his advisers, does not think that his comments are less supportive of Israel, and has not noted a particular problem with his expressions of friendship with Israel or his commitment to maintaining the special relationship between the United States and Israel.

On the other hand, Obama will not be able to change what the panel doesn't like about him. Experience and a proven record of friendship are simply not something that can be acquired in a few months of campaigning.