Pollsters Admit: We Failed to Predict Kadima Primary Results

Under attack, pollsters try to explain why a projected 10 percent margin turned into a narrow win for Livni.

Israel's pollsters have admitted their failure in correctly predicting Wednesday's Kadima primary results.

The polls that were published ahead of the vote guaranteed a resounding victory to Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni by over a 10-percent margin, while the actual results indicated an extremely narrow win.

In fact, Livni secured 43.1 percent of the vote while Transportation Minister Shaul Mofaz fetched 42 percent - a difference of only 1.1 percent.

Pollsters then tried to offer explanations to their miscalculated insistence on a landslide victory for Livni.

Channel 10 pollster Prof. Camil Fuchs said, "We rightly predicted the identity of the winner, as well as the fact that victory will already be secured in the first round."

However, Fuchs added, "the statistical error was massive - much larger than any incidental margin of error. There was clearly a deviation of votes."

Channel 2 pollster Mina Tzemach excused the miscalculation by saying "a large percentage of voters refused to say who they will be voting for." She added that "the weight of this percentage was especially high among Arab voters."

"We formulated ways to decipher people's voting patterns," Tzemach said. "I guess it worked in the Jewish sector, but failed in the Arab sector."