Mofaz: New Iran nuke direction is just strategy of buying time
Former defense minister calls 2010 'year of Iran sanctions,' says Tehran unlikely to halt nuclear program.
By Reuters Tags: Iran Shaul Mofaz Iran nuclear Israel newsLong strident in its calls for tougher international action over Iran's nuclear program, Israel has fallen silent as world powers try to convert last week's talks with Tehran into a lasting deal.
Israeli officials have declined comment on Thursday's meeting in Geneva, which yielded agreements to open a newly disclosed Iranian uranium enrichment site to inspection and follow-up negotiations.
Former defense minister Shaul Mofaz, however, told Israel Radio on Sunday that he did not see Iran's recent cooperation as any other than a "strategy of buying time."
"The chance of the Iranians agreeing to a complete halt of the nuclear program looks relatively slim, in my view," Mofaz said. "Theirs is a strategy of buying time."
"Therefore, in my view, moving to a next stage of harsher sanctions, in global partnership, and with an emphasis on Russia and China, is inevitable." Mofaz told Israel Radio. "My assessment is that 2010 will be the year of sanctions on Iran."
Under the previous government, Mofaz was Israel's strategic liaison with the United States and set a core demand that any deal with Iran rule out uranium enrichment on its soil.
That stance could be challenged by Iran's offer, at the Geneva talks, to send low-enriched uranium (LEU) to Russia and France for further processing and then re-import it to fuel a U.N.-monitored Tehran reactor to produce medical isotopes.
An Israeli intelligence official voiced concern that such "outsourcing" might be used by Iran as a pretext to continue domestic LEU production for a stockpile that could be converted into bomb-grade highly enriched uranium (HEU) in the future.
But American and British officials said the export deal, which has yet to be finalized, would be a one-off. France, another of the six powers that met Iran last week, has led calls for a freeze on Iranian enrichment to be kept on the agenda.
While experts in Israel and abroad voiced scepticism about the value of such moves, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's right-leaning government appeared to have adopted the "wait and see" attitude of the United States and its European allies.
"I assume official Israel is saying, de facto, that they withhold judgment until the picture becomes clearer, and that for now no new decisions need to be made," said a recently retired Israeli government adviser.
Though Iran denies seeking nuclear weapons, the lack of transparency around its programme and the virulently anti-Israel rhetoric from Tehran has stirred global fear of secret bomb designs that could draw pre-emptive Israeli military strikes.
The hawkish Netanyahu has at times stoked such speculation. But centrist Defense Minister Ehud Barak last month suggested that Israel - assumed to have the Middle East's only atomic arsenal - could opt instead to fend off a nuclear-armed Iran.
Some analysts see Israeli forces as incapable of delivering long-term damage to Iran's distant and fortified nuclear sites, which could mean that Netanyahu has little choice but to hope for a diplomatic breakthrough or, failing that, for a U.S.-led military intervention along with upgraded defences for Israel.
The Obama administration has said it wants to see progress in the new engagement with Iran by year's end, and spoken of "crippling" sanctions as a punitive option.
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The IDF is the only arrow in the quiver. The US under Obama will not start a third front. No way, no how. Netanyahu has his work cut out for him.
What Iran wants is key here and that is the reactors in operation. Iran now has the ability to use uranium to make nukes for missile warheads but only afew. Iran needs the reactors working for 5 to 10yrs to get plutonium for large numbers of nukes. Iran also wants to rebuild it military before creating nukes so they will back down for now and get what they want in 7 to 10yrs. Any deal that lets Iran keep its reactors or centrifuges is bad for Israel but that is most likely to happen now and bombing is now not likely an option if Iran is working with IAEA.
Crippling sanctions will do nothing to Iran which has multi billion dollar business with Russia, China, India, Arabs, most of EU, Central Asia and South America. So dreams of crippling sanctions will only give Iran easy 3-4 years to perfect its nukes.
Israel needs sanctions? For who? Israel needs security. It is the only country on the planet, the only UN member state which is explicitly threatened with destruction by another UN member state. And what does the world do? Nothing but "talk" a-la-Chamberlain to give Iran time to pursue its devilish designs.
It will agree "in principle" to anything that can buy it time to take a slice of its Uranium, and spin it from LEU to HEU in a few, small, secret locations in their huge country. It will be impossible to find. All people with normal intelligence and neutral mindset know it. What BS is pushing the P5 into denial, procastination and "talks" about "sanctions"? Only the spirit of ostriches. And ElBaradei is helping Iran in every way he can, talking about "shifting gears from an era of confrontation to an era of cooperation". Yeah, sure... cooperation with Israel's demise. Who could give Obama a testosterone shot, please?
Iran has had a 5 Mw (thermal) research reactor running for decades. It is currently using 20% enriched Uranium fuel. This reactor can make 4-5 grams of Plutonium a day, or a bomb every four years or so. This crisis has been going on for longer than that. Where is the bomb? The answer is that the reactor is under IAEA inspections and safeguards and has not been used to produce Plutonium.
Did someone take baby War Hawk's war away from him? Poor thing.
But we have had enough of appeasement.
Period
Unfortunately I agree with him. Usually I have a good idea of what to be/not to be done. At this juncture in time, I believe the regime is just buying time. And I know that sanctions will not be helpful for they will hurt the ordinary people, not the regime. And the regime has been under sanctions for 3 decades & has developed ways of coping w/ them. The military option is definitely out of the question for: you will have to kill massive #s of civilians as the plants are near densely populated areas & the only way to scratch the highly fortified plants you'll have to use mini-nukes (which will have unimaginable cons). Secondly, even if you're crazy enough to go for military option the outcome: sets back the program only 3-5 years(doesn't eliminate it), Iran WILL pull out of NPT & definitely go for the bomb. Mind you right now even they know the know-how they haven't developed it & by intrusive IAEA inspctions we can keep it as is. A military attack would also kill opposition movement.
Of course they are stalling for time, Ahmadinejad no more has any intention of dropping the nuclear project than Bibi has of making peace with the Palestinians. This is just the macabre dance that precedes combat. The only cure available to Bibi is itself worse than the disease. For Iran it is a matter of national pride and honor. The Palestinians are Pawns, expendable and doomed. Obama will keep trying to keep the lid on. Only one thing is for sure, peace and goodwill ain't a fixin to break out.
First talk about talking then talk about nothing all the while doing exactly what you want to do then present it as fait acompli...you know like settling the west bank
Iran is a threat to nobody and nothing except Israel's illegal Settlements Enterprise, in blatant violation of the Fourth Geneva Convention.
a crisis where one no longer exists. The International Community has never asked Iran for a complete cessation of it's nuclear programme. As under the IAEA Iran is allowed and is perfectly entitled to have a nuclear power generating capability. What the International Community have asked for is that Iran ceases enriching Uranium, and the International Community would ensure Iran was given sufficient supplies of enriched Uranium that it required. Iran would also have sanctions put in place in 1979 removed. This was the offer Bush placed on the table. Netanyahu and Mofaz's problem is they thought they could artificially maintain a crisis where there was none to keep the Israeli public cowed and avoid the demands of the International Community for the establishment of a viable Palestinian State. Looks like Netanyahu and Mofaz are going to have to concentrate on matters closer to home. An unemployment rate of 10%, and passing a budget, come to mind.
Buing time and create facts on the ground... Do you think sanctions can stop that, then I know a country that needs sanctions as soon as possible!