Jordanian role increasingly seen as crucial to peace process
Support growing for Jordan-PA confederation; Abdullah calls idea a conspiracy against both peoples.
By Shmuel RosnerThere are increasing signs, slowly but unmistakably, that the Jordanian option for solving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is once more assuming a central position on the agenda. Not necessarily along its original 'Jordan is Palestine' formula, but in a more sophisticated composition: Jordanian assistance to the Palestinians, the possibility of a confederation. This is no longer the preserve of people on the extreme right or of neo-conservatives, who have never supported the idea of creating a Palestinian state. These ideas are also being considered by more mainstream groups. Even more surprising, there are many senior Fatah members, exasperated with the likelihood that the Oslo process will yet yield results, who are also looking for a way out of the impasse.
A Palestinian source close to Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas told Haaretz that he 'was not frightened' by these ideas. However, he also clarified that 'this is a sensitive matter. Of course, it is difficult to address it publicly.' In any case, at this stage, talks about the Jordanian option are held in unofficial channels and in secret.'
The Bush administration is committed to an agenda of a two state solution, which now focuses on bolstering Abbas and his regime in the West Bank. Israeli sources have said that the Jordanian question has not been raised in official talks held with American officials during recent months. However, some senior administration officials have begun to ask: What would happen if the current strategy proves to be unproductive?
Meanwhile, a caustic response to the idea of such a solution came from King Abdullah of Jordan who said Sunday during an interview that 'we reject the formula of confederation and federation and we believe that proposing this issue at this specific point in time is a conspiracy against both Palestine and Jordan.' The King added that he was 'fed up talking about this issue.'
A diplomat who is familiar with Jordan said there is no reason to wish for a confederation at present. This may change, he added, if a chaotic situation in the West Bank begins to threaten stability. The diplomat said that Abdullah's reaction is an attempt to block an idea that is rapidly gaining supporters.'
The head of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, Dr. Robert Satloff, wrote last week that it is possible that the 'pursuit of an Israeli-Palestinian political horizon may in fact run counter to the interests and preferences of both sides. Instead, investing in an Arab-Palestinian political horizon 'including early negotiations on the outline of an eventual Jordanian-Palestinian confederation 'may be more realistic, valuable and effective.'
In a few weeks the Hudson Institute, a neo-conservative think tank, will host a delegation of former senior Jordanian and Palestinian officials for an exchange on the relations between the PA and the Hashemite Kingdom. Last year, another right-wing think tank, the American Enterprise Institute, hosted a similar dialogue, in which Jordan's former prime minister, Abdul Salam al-Majali, assessed that the idea of establishing a 'federation or a confederation' with Jordan was likely to be supported by 'a large number' of Palestinians.'
A survey conducted recently by Dr. Khalil Shikaki's Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research suggests that 42 percent of Palestinians would support a confederation, while 52 percent oppose it.'
Sources in the Israeli government, which is working together with the American administration to strengthen Abbas' hold on the West Bank, are also not raising the Jordanian option in public in great part because they would like to avoid angering President George W. Bush and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice. However, opposition leader Benjamin Netanyahu, who visited Washington 10 days ago, is openly discussing the need to deploy 'Jordanian forces' in the West Bank to assist in restoring order there.
In Israel, the Jordanian option is not the turf solely of the right-wing. President-elect Shimon Peres told the Winograd Committee during his testimony on the Second Lebanon War that 'we need to look for a new structure with the Palestinians. I have come back to the conclusion that... we must bring in the Jordanians. We cannot make peace only with the Palestinians.'
A U.S. administration official, who refused to address the Jordanian option specifically, said that 'the administration is committed to the agenda set by the president.' He added that, 'I do not think there will be any change on this matter. But this can happen in the administration of another president.'
A foreign policy adviser to one of the candidates for the presidency in 2008 told Haaretz Sunday that 'strengthening Abbas seems to be the right thing to do, but we all recognize that the chances it will succeed are low.'
Under such circumstances it is important to seek alternatives, he said, but 'it is dangerous [because] such a search weakens Abbas.'
The Republican presidential candidate leading the polls, Rudolph Giuliani of New York, told a Jewish audience in Washington last week that 'we should try to help Abbas,' but stressed that 'we should make sure that we're getting help from Jordan and other places, so the burden doesn't fall on Israel or on the United States.'
This is the essence of the search for 'new ideas.' In Washington, like in Israel and also among the Palestinians, the Hamas takeover in the Gaza Strip has registered another record in the lack of confidence in the PA's ability to restore stability on its own and to serve as a partner in dialogue.
The head of the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institute, Martin Indyk, who served as U.S. ambassador to Israel, wrote last week that nothing would come of a 'renewed U.S. effort unless an antidote was found to the fundamental weakness of the Palestinian institutions.'
But experts focusing on this issue now say that Palestinian institutions may not be enough, and a future partner may also need to have Jordanian reliability.
Other scholars suggest even more provocative ideas, such as that of Edward Luttwak, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. In a recent article and during a conversation with Haaretz, Luttwak urged decision makers to 'leave the Palestinians alone.'
He believes that there will be no solution to the crisis until the Palestinians understand that they need to adopt 'realistic solutions' and cease toying with 'dreams.' It is best, he says, to let the Palestinians become accustomed to the fact that if they do not help themselves, they will get nothing.
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King Abdullah II of Jordan waving to the departing Saudi king at Amman airport on Thursday. (AP) |
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Arabia, who built all those old stone towns and villages. Who has been living in them from time immemorial? Genii?
The neo-cons and their supporters should remember that.
Nice bunch of people that are now the main backers of Israels occupation. The "Jordan is Palestine" has long been a wet dream of the ultra right and their ultra right light friends. It's just a dream though nothing else, it is ment to deprive the Palestinians of their right of return and their right to the liberation of East Jerusalem to serve as their capital. Sieg what ever you want, but they don't have any other idea but to expell them all or cut of the water. The Arab initiative has to be fought in every way, becuse peace isn't what Israel wants, but land and land and more land. It is the golden calf. Dance Zion, dance and misbehave until the retun of Messiah.
can the stoogfe deliver.... no way ... they never have. talk to the palestinian people... they are the ones who matter
and kicked out the rest of them before they could take over. He does not trust the darlings of the left.
war in the Middle East. The British regime may be toppled by leftists allied with Islamic fundementalists before the the Hachemite kingdom is toppled. It shows how little you know about the Middle East Clickfool
Ivan is right, as many of the more sane respondents have noted over time. For Rosner, only the voices of neo-con voices are presented, and as authoritative. The Middle East confederation idea has been written about extensively by the "left" as well -- I have had several pieces in Tikkun on the subject -- but we are ignored. The central issue, which Rosner does not address but which makes the confederation idea "neo-con" or not, is whether the Palestinians will become merely an extension of Jordan, leaving Israel in control of the land but having successfully fobbed off the people, or whether Palestinian will have their own state and citizenship within a confederation. Israel's, the neo-cons and Rosner's end-game is clear: an expanded Israel and a finessed "Jordan-is-Palestine" option. The two-state solution is indeed dead, apartheid is difficult to swing even with US support -- let's go back to the old Peres-Likud "Jordanian Option." Just don't look for any critical analysis in Rosner.
A few years down the line the Western puppet ruling Jordan will be toppled by forces of Islamic extremism. People still do not see the significance of the failed Iraq war.
recognizing the right of state in which this site is located, the Jewish state of Israel, to exist? Do you think it is the right thing to do, the ethical thing to do, a fair thing do, to use the site of people whose very life depends on the existence of the Jewish state of Israel in order to tell them that they, their children, grand children and their elderly have no right to have their own people's state? Is this mode of behavior part of the teaching of your church, the same one that for centuries has been haunting us Jews, and you are just its present time agent? Shame on you!
internalized that they just missed yet another opportunity for statehood and peaceful coexistence with the Jewish people, the latest having been brought about by themselves when they perminently separated between the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. Now it is time to think of how Egypt will gradually take control of the Gaza Strip and extend citizenship to its residents, and how Jordan will take control of the West Bank and gradually will extend citizenship to those residents there who still don't have Jordanian citizenship, including Jews who reside in the territory. Such an outcome will be to everyone's benefit in light of the facts that: 1) These two countries, unlike the Palestinians, know how to govern, and 2) The two countries live in peace with Israel and recognize its right to exist. The Palestinians have never really wanted to or even could govern themselves, hence their many missed opportunities to do so. Now is the time to resolve matters differently.
Other scholars suggest even more provocative ideas, such as that of Edward Luttwak, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. In a recent article and during a conversation with Haaretz, Luttwak urged decision makers to 'leave the Palestinians alone.' " I agree fully with the idea of Edward L.It's time the world should leave the pals to think what they actually want and stop focusing on them too much. Maybe when the world start to loose interest and support for the pals/israel conflict the pals/israel will have no choice but to made a decision once and for all to decide their future. After forty years of talks and negotiations for peace and they still can't find a solution to it that means either one or two of the parties do not peace.So why waste time on this issue. Their are more pressing issues in the world to attend to!! Let's give them less attention and see how effective it is!!!
It's plain chutzpa to even consider dumping our problems in the lap of Jordan. Ofcourse this enrages the King, our only friend in the nieghborhood. We may even risk loosing him.
I wish the civilized Brits will not demolish the so called terrorist Doctors houses and throw their families on the streets of London.
Some Israelis are still striving to "prempt" the west bank, to be annexed by Israel at some point. Before that can happen, they need to get rid of the Palestinians living there. Jordans king has no job more important than quashing this Israel strategem which surfaces from time to time. We have already gone beyond the point where a peaceful two state solution can be resolved. The new national borders for the two states will be established in the time honored method, war.
The question is, Is Israel ready to give back every inch of land it took by force? What about the refugees? Are they coming back to their original homes in Israel? It is only logical to settle the border and the refugee issues first. Palestinians later on may agree in a referendum to be in a confederation with Jordan. This article tries to put the cart before the horse.
this conflict? 1/Palestine was from biblical times the land on both shores of the river Jordan 2/The population of Jordan together with that of the West Bank and Gaza would be 75% Palestinian creating the opportunity of a national homeland for the Palestinians roughly 4 times bigger than Israel. 3/The Hashemite Monarchy claim to be direct descendants from the Prophet himself.What better ruler can righteous followers of Islam have? It seems though that hate of Israel and the desire to destroy that country are far more powerful than the need and the desire to have a viable,prosperous and peaceful homeland
Actually this is a very balanced piece in that it brings to public awareness that there are indeed several sub rosa channels being opened to the idea of a confederation. And cites them. It also offers notes of caution by those who have been bitterly disappointed about Oslo. Anything that offers a way out of the morass, a glimmer of hope, an unorthodox approach angers people who simply want to see a zero-sum approach to the problem. Diplomacy is not war, it is subtle and cautious. Abdullah?s Grandfather paid a heavy price for even talking to the Jews. The young King is a very smart man, and is well liked and holds many keys in his back pocket. Let's just wait and see. My money is on some sort of confederation, undoing what the late King Hussein did when he unhitched the WB from Jordan
The phony boy king already rules over an Arab population identical to the so-called "palestinians." As these Arabs refuse to live in peace and lust for war, they must be returned to their native Arabia or at the very least to Jordan. Iraq and Lebanon prove that Arabs will slaughter each other if not ruled by a strong dictator. The idea of Jordanian armed forces in Judea is obscene and dangerous. We saw yesterday in Glasgow and London what an educated, Jordanian Arab doctor will do if left in a free society.
When it suits them (in their struggle to annihilate Israel), Arabs have supported a pan-Arab movement or an all-encompassing Islamic state, but ask Jordan to have confederation with the Palestinians and they have a hissy fit.
a confederation would threaten the Hashemite Kingdom and lead to Jordan & the West Bank becoming Palestine. Of course His Royal Highness would oppose that, he would gain the West Bank, but would eventually be exiled to the West End (New York or London? :-))
Rosner says that the Jordanian option is not just the preserve of the far right and the neo-conservatives, but the only evidence he has for anyone else clinging on to this non-starter is that Peres said that the Jordanians have to be involved in peace making. That's not the same as the "Jordanian option" now, is it? King Abdullah says clearly that he is sick of the idea. There is absolutely no concrete piece of evidence in the article to support its thesis. If there is a Jordanian option way down the line (which is possible) raising "at this specific time" as Abdullah says is impossible. And why does S.R. end with quoting an Edward Luttwak, who is not suggesting the Jordanian option at all? There is no alternative to peace with the Palestinians, but if Rosner doesn't think so he should come out and take the responsibility for saying so and not invent non-existent experts or misleading interpretations for what real personalities have said.
"Increasing signs, slowly but unmistakeably" - I see that Shmuel Rosner's evidence doesnt actually go beyond the right-wing elements within New York and mysterious sources close to Abbas. The frustrating thing is that we all know what a future Palestinian state will look like, we just need to filter through all the political cr*p that this very article seems to spew.