Is Israel really a target for chemical warfare?
In their latest blog, Harel and Issacharoff ponder Israel's decision to distribute gas masks to all citizens.
By Avi Issacharoff and Amos Harel Tags: Hezbollah Israel newsIsrael announced Monday that it was going to mass distribute gas masks to protect its population against biological and chemical weaponry. Despite the fact that the speakers at the press conference to announce the details (which were disclosed by Haaretz some two months ago) claimed that the decision to distribute the masks "had nothing to do with anything," it is nonetheless difficult to see it as unrelated to the sharp climb in regional tensions of the last few months.
Israel's leaders have been engaged in intense flip-flopping over the issue of gas mask distribution in recent years. First, the masks (which were distributed on the eve of the first Gulf War, in 1990) were taken away from the public, a move explained by the claim that they would be better kept in one place by the IDF Home Command. Later, following a pointed cabinet dispute over redistribution, it was decided that the masks would be given out once again, this time only in areas considered to be especially under threat - such as the north of Israel (from Syria and Hezbollah) and the south (from Hamas from Gaza). Now, comes the official announcement that gas masks will be distributed to everyone, regardless of location.
The main consideration is likely a judicial one. The defense establishment came to realize that a decision to distribute masks to residents of Haifa, while withholding them from nearby Zichron Ya'akov on the grounds that it is located further south, would not survive the High Court. The judges would overrule the decision on grounds of discrimination, so the IDF may as well launch a general distribution and step production of the masks.
The Achilles' heel of the decision is the financial constraints. GOC Home Command Yair Golan admitted Sunday that an overall budget for the project had not yet been found, and that the issue of funding was still subject to negotiations by the defense and finance ministries. The masks would be another substantial addition to the budget, coming only a few months after the government authorized NIS 2 billion, most of which is dedicated to dealing with the Iranian threat.
Meanwhile, even though the development of the Iron Dome anti-missile defense system has been completed, no funds have been allocated for its production, with only two systems okayed. The army, however, believes more systems are needed to defend the Negev and the Galilee.
So to what extent is the chemical threat palpable? That's a deeply divisive question. Some civilian defense experts say the effect of such a threat is mostly psychological. The enemy would find it difficult, they say, to launch rockets and missiles with chemical warheads that would cause any real damage. Moreover, the other side knows that Israel would react with extreme aggression if such warheads were used.
Going against Yair Golan, who advocates gas mask distribution, are several top officers in the IDF general staff, who say such a move would be unnecessary and primarily serve to cover the behinds of politicians wary of another Winograd Commission in the wake of a future war.
The gas mask distribution is part of a feeding frenzy that has taken hold of the Israeli home front in the last two years. This doesn't only stem from Israel being caught with its pants down in the Second Lebanon War, but also from an understanding that in any future confrontation the enemy will focus most of its pressure on Israel's civilian population.
The fears over Israel's civilians are not only related to the possibility of a conflagration over Iran's nuclear program. In recent weeks, tensions have been rising between Israel and Syria and Hezbollah, with fears that Iran would attempt to push the region into a conflict, thus diverting the world's attention from its nuclear program and postponing any planned tough sanctions.
So does all of this actually have anything to do with chemical weapons and gas masks? In a roundabout way, yes. Syria is stockpiling large amounts of chemical warheads. Just a few years ago, Russian scientists reported they had developed the ability to install such warheads on rockets like those in the hands of Hezbollah. Even now, the presence of chemical weapons in Lebanon is still uncertain. But the (imaginary) scenario in which a guerilla organization, not just a nation state, has chemical weapon capability would shift the balance of deterrence between the sides.
Can Israel be certain that it will be able to dissuade Hezbollah before the group uses chemical weapons? And in the event of war, does Israel have an effective response to the launch of such weapons? These are the tough - and worrying - questions.
Posted by Amos Harel and Avi Issacharoff on March 2, 2010
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maybe yes..maybe no.....exactly i don,t know.
MUSLIM fighters won,t use chemicals to kill israeli innocent civilians .the fight will be only aginst idf , and again no chemicals to be used .war will be like vietnam type in close encounters , long-range missiles will be used extensively in later stages of war .
"Now let us assume that there will be a military strike against Iran" WHY? "..the only RSVP weapons that are likely to be offered in reply are those which may be referred to as `BC` weapons... ie ABC but minus the A(tomic)component/capacity..." Is there evidence they have BC weapons? Don't they have any conventional weapons? Was there actually any evidence of BC weapons used by Iraq on Israel? It seems "Only one Israeli was killed by a missile, though 15 died of heart attacks, suffocation in their gas masks or reaction to a chemical-weapon antidote that some took in a panic. In the 1991 conflict, Iraq did not fire missiles tipped with chemical or biological agents" http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1003916,00.html "If anything, it may be seen as a further symbolic escalation in the intimidatory rhetoric issued against Iran which has been spewing forth from both the USA and Israel re. ` "all options being on the table" ` ... ... ad nauseum..." Scaremongering. No
"I would rather "live" in a country which is out side the law to defend its citizens against almost daily terrorist attacks then "die" in a country which has given up all its rights of self defense in order to satisfy self loathing jews like you." Save it for Hasbara classes http://wp.me/PDB7k-M#support-Israel Asking Israel to adhere to the law does not in any way jeopardize it's security. Nor does it make me a 'self loathing Jew' I at least adhere to the basic tenets of our faith, unlike your pathetic attempts at false witness against me. "If illegal behaviour means distributing gas marks as a defense against chemical weapons then so be it." Oh if you say so...I didn't. "I would rather be safe than sorry. I do love you snide little anti semetic comment about who is going to benefit from the juicy contract" Nice try. Defense contracts in any country, by any contractor are usually quite juicy. I guess that's an antisemitic remark about Australians or British or Russians etc
Why call it that? Not of the Israelis at least... Now let us assume that there will be a military strike against Iran, the only RSVP weapons that are likely to be offered in reply are those which may be referred to as 'BC' weapons... ie ABC but minus the A(tomic)component/capacity... If anything, it may be seen as a further symbolic escalation in the intimidatory rhetoric issued against Iran which has been spewing forth from both the USA and Israel re. ' "all options being on the table" ' ... ... ad nauseum...
Banning cars would make you alot safer! No one fears cars half as much though! The propaganda system that you have swallowed only see's exagerations of Israel the victim! Name any middle east nation that has invaded thier neighbours more than Israel has done! Israels nuclear, chemical and biological arsenal is the largest too. So who needs the masks more?..................... .......PEACE NEVER?
Israel the proverbial Peter. But in this nursery rhyme no one ignores him or disbelieves they just come running time and time again to the microphones and repeat his lies to the rest of the world.....be afraid be very afraid Avigdor is looking over the sheep....PEACE NEVER?
the whole world can be a target for chemical/nuclear warfare as long as these weapons exist. welcome to the free and save world and i wish everybody a good and happy life!
you will soon find out if you attack syria or iran, plain and simple, why?, because syria has learned not to trust jordan or egypt, they are cowards, while iran has the backing of greater powers, the syrians are wise to cosy up to them, trust me llan, you will be overun if you pick on any of these 2, it ain't rocket science.
to keep a certain government in power, i can't remember who started it, but the idea was that if you instill fear into the public, they will not change government in fear, many are using the draconian method, but it's only backfiring on em.
i've said this before, israel thinks it can hit syria without any consequences, think again, this time if syria looks like it will be beaten, it will do as israel almost did in 73, with a massive stockpile of chems in hand, israel will become unlivable, they have taken israels mentality, if we lose they will too, if we get demolished, they will too, funny how israels policies are caming back to bite you in the ass, hey?.
Relations between nations are not governed by the codes of the local kindergarden - Johnny has some candy so Billy should get some candy. These are issues of live and death. The US has never taken the attitude that because the US has a weapon system that therefore other nations are entitled to the same weapons system - for the sake of fairness. Is it wrong for the US to try and deny WMD to North Korea - of course it's not wrong. Nations don't want their enemies to get better weapons. To accuss them of not being fair is silly.
then American liberals will be compelled to feel sorry for them. So there's that.
And how effective are just gas masks alone against HD (Mustard Gas) or SB (Sarin)? Those are the agents stockpiled by Syria. Against some of the agents Iran used in the lran-Iraq war, CG (phosgene), AC (cyanide), gas masks alone are reasonably effective, but not against HD or nerve agents such as SA, SB, SD, and VX. They would help some as long as the attack were not intelligently conducted. . . But against many chemical warfare agents a gas mask alone is insufficient. Mustard, Tabun, Sarin, VX all are quite effective if they just contact your skin. Probably not worth the effort, but if it makes people feel safer perhaps the placebo effect is worth it.
As long as you are willing to allow every other country to defend its citizens by going into Israel and take out anyone it considers a threat, your disdain for international law is allowable. If, however, you maintain Israel's territory is inviolable, you must agree everyone else's is also. Or are you another of the zionists who feels no rules apply to Israel (just to everyone else)?
That why you live in Florida and not Israel then?
If anyone of you idiots had any idea of the Israeli people you would know that nobody "Keeps them in line". We are an ornery, chaos loving, mixed up people who hate authority and do pretty much what we please when we please. Obviously none of you have ever been to Tel Aviv much less driven in its traffic. No Isreali goverment has ever been able to keep the people in line. Thats why we have we have never had a majority goverment ever and usually have over 20 political parties competing for votes in a robust democracy. You should pay us a visit (Lithwaite (self hating jew) and Lincoln can save up unemployment benefits) and walk down Ben Yehuda street on a Saturday night and see how terrified and in line we are.
" Fear is a big business it will thrive as long as a country continues to live outside the law, whilst citing `defense` in order to justify it`s illegal behaviour". CJ your holier than thou posts are tiresome. I would rather "live" in a country which is out side the law to defend its citizens against almost daily terrorist attacks then "die" in a country which has given up all its rights of self defense in order to satisfy self loathing jews like you. If illegal behaviour means distributing gas marks as a defense against chemical weapons then so be it. I would rather be safe than sorry. I do love you snide little anti semetic comment about who is going to benefit from the juicy contract.
why or Why do you do this to your citizens? What to scare your citizens? Make them live in fear? American taxpayers pay for this sillliness! Israel become modern--grow up--act regionally, start to make peace rather war.
has more of a resonance to the Jewish people and therefore the use of gas masks to keep the Israeli population in line. However for total protection Israelis would all need to have NBC suits issued. The fact that this isn't the case probably means there is no real threat.
makes them easier to control
During the Gulf War, the score was Chemical Weapons 0, Gas Masks 2, if I recall?
Yeah right we are sooooo scared here. You idiots keep telling to make peace or else, but on other hand say Netanyahooooo is scaring us from making peace. So is fear good or bad? Or can't you keep your story straight? We are not getting masks because the government wants to scare nor because we are scared. You are completely oblivious to what people think here.
I suppose the people of Syria don't care or have no way of expressing their opinion in regards to the billions spent on weapons that if ever used would start a process that would end in their deaths. Still it is annoying to think that we have to go through the expense of rigaramole of collecting gas masks just so chinless Assad will have doubts of the efficacy of actually using his chemical stockpile. No one come out ahead in this contest, but the Baathists are a bunch of cowards and criminals and we just have to wait out until they get flushed down the sewer of history.
Thus Netanyahu wants to keep Israelis terrified.
This is probably just another attempt to frighten Israelis into supporting the Netanyahoo gang. However, I wonder how Israeli emigration figures will change in the coming months. Those leaving are not likely to be Likud supporters, so why should the government worry.
Other than the terrorists developing chemical weapons which will be a threat to the northern towns within reach of Hizbollah chemical weapons Syria, Iran and Egypt at least along with countries who are not an imidiate threat to Israel all have chemical weapons. Even Egypt cannot be trusted because any treaty that can be made can be broken. Egypt & Syria may be smart enough not to use them as first strike weapons but may be willing to let them fall into terrorist hands and Iran would use them in a first strike. Hopefully there is no threat we know of in the short term things can change very quickly in the Middle East. In 1991 Saddam Hussain had chemical weapons and had used them in the past and he could have just as easily fired them at Israel instead of missiles with conventional warheads. Better to be safe than sorry and having the masks can't hurt the same way having a bomb shelter or secure room in your apartment or house can't hurt even if you don't see any threat short term.
As I recall, Israel was told not to participate in the First Gulf War, despite the fact that Scuds were landing on Tel Aviv, fired from Iraq. Do you really think your city is immune from anything? As I recall, lots of Arab rhetoric says that Tel Aviv was originally their city.
This article is nonsense. The only reason for the distribution of gas masks is to keep the Israeli public in a state of fear and panic and hence supportive of the government. It is a well known fact that chemical weapons are of limited value on the battle field and that the designation of WMD is inaccurate. They are incapable of causing mass casualties in any civilian population unless used in the fashion of Saddam Hussein; planes spraying the gases continually for hours over civilian areas. A scenario unlikely to occur in any war in the North. This MESS report is a load of trash. Every article has been trite. If they wanted to tell the truth they'd let the people in on the fact "security" here is used for internal political consumption 90% of the time and not take for granted the impartiality of the govt in this "holy" realm of Israeli politics. There's a very good deterrent to chemical weapons; A-bombs. Israel is covered. Thanks MESS report for your great analysis and insight. :-)
country continues to live outside the law, whilst citing 'defense' in order to justify it's illegal behaviour. What a juicy contract. I wonder who suggested it's necessity?
I doubt the intent is to scare the Israeli people, but that will be the result. You have a military establishment that is paid to be exceptionally cautious about any possible threat, because people's lives are at stake. This leads to a certain degree of paranoia, because it's better to be overvigilant than let Israelis die. Every terrorist attack that gets through, even the minor ones, and the security guys are telling themselves they need to be more vigilant, and believing in threats that are minute, just to be safe. Then you have a weak set of politicians, who go along with their military advisers, and implement the advice of those who must be paranoid to protect us. So you get schemes like this, which will drive everybody further into a perpetual-war mentality and cost billions. It's a terribly dangerous situation, because there truly are no crooks involved, but the results are the same as if there were. We have to remember, anything is legitimate when at war.
A WMD is a WMD. If Israel can stockpile atomic bombs, why can't they stockpile poison gas?