Is Iran 'inviting' Israel to strike its nuclear facility?
The New York Times: Iran moved its nuclear stockpile above ground as IAEA inspectors watched.
By Yossi Melman and Haaretz Service Tags: IAEA Iran nuclear Israel newsIs Iran goading Israel to strike one of its nuclear facilities? That is one explanation that international nuclear experts and analysts have come up with to explain why Iran recently moved nearly its entire stockpile of low-enriched uranium to above-ground storage, according to a report published Friday in the New York Times.
According to the New York Times, which quotes the latest International Atomic Energy Agency report, on Feb. 14 nuclear inspectors watched as Iran transferred more than 2,000 kilograms (4,300 pounds) of low-enriched uranium from deep underground storage to visible storageabove ground.
Supposedly, this enriched uranium will be used for a further enrichment of 20 percent to be used for its small reactor in Tehran that produces isotopes for medical equipment.
The report says the move makes no sense, because Iran does not need that much fuel to run an aging reactor in Tehran. Iran has repeatedly claimed its nuclear program is intended for peaceful purposes and not for developing atomic weapons.
Analysts have called this a puzzling move, as Iran last September was caught building a new underground enrichment site at a military base near the city of Qom. The site was dug deep inside the Iranian mountainside, and Iran said it was forced to build it there because of the threat of an Israeli or U.S. attack.
One of the explanations analysts have used to explain the about-face is that Iran's Revolutionary Guards are "inviting" an Israeli attack to deflect attention from the eight months of post-election violence that have divided the country.
One senior European diplomat told the New York Times on Thursday that an Israeli military strike could be the "best thing" for the Iranian regime, because it would rally Iranians around the government and against a common enemy.
However, other experts gave a different reason. They say Iran has run short of suitable storage containers for its enriched uranium, so it had to move almost all of it.
Kenneth Pollack, a scholar at the Brooking Institution, told the New York Times that Iran is basically jockeying for a better position in negotiations with the West.
Intelligence experts in Washington and Europe are not certain that Iran is seeking to actually build nuclear weapons or just to have the capability to assemble an atomic bomb if and when it desires.
However, officials have said that U.S. President Obama wants to prevent an Israeli strike and dispatched to Israel both his national security adviser and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff to reiterate that point.
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Very nice article Revolutionary Gurad in Iran needs this attck to kill more and imprison more in Iran just for the reason of War. The best thing is banning Iran not War
iran is moving it's low enriched fuel to areas it is baiting Israel to strike. The weapons grade is safely hidden inside the mountains. This way they think they can attack Israel when Israel strikes - and blame Israel for taking out the enriched fuel they "intended" to use to supply iranian citizens with electricity.
Mark you speak of uranium, not of enriched uranium. They stockpiled their low enriched uranium. Fuel rods packaged in containers, i assume. Is your comment also valid for that?
Sunni ,Shiite who cares about illiterate dumb suicidals ,as they are doing a very good job as wee speak taking each other out in Muslim lands on a daily basis ,keep it up peasants we,re loving it ?
Are you saying that Mohammed el-Baradei ,the IAEA head honcho has any credibilty in the western world after his continuous cover ups of Iran,s silly little boy,s ,games ,Mark,put your head back in the sand please?
Iran attack who ,with what , as the Sunni madman Saddam showed ,plastic keys to Allah and the ubiquitous Qoran ,you really are a laugh a minute Nathalie in LA,sweet dreams ?
We have no idea ,pray tell us stageviewer or maybe you are unable to ,yes?
Poor old Palestine observer still dreaming about past Arab glories ,well that,s in the past too late fot the 21st century ,salaam?
Until it eventually blows up in your face,typical dumb Shiite games?
Shirazi in London still tyring to kid 70 milliomn Shiite sheep that one sheepdog can control them all ,whatever?
Reason no.1 Chinese fireworks,two hashish about to go up in smoke,three illicit American alchol also about to go up in smoke ,four the Shiite Imam was seen riding his white horse with acompanying angels in the Eastern skies of Arabia ,it,s barbecue time ,praise Allah?
Wrong they are all about to receive the Tennessee bourbon and Swat hashish ,it,s been a very good yesar for tunnel building in Hanmastan ,the profits have been paid up ?
It,s actually Chinese supplied firewoks ,don,t be fooled?
why afraid of iran ,and not of others.what other nations do with their bomb.
Low enriched uranium, above ground.? More than likely drums of diesel fuel. All appropriately marked High Radiation. Israel will not be sucked into some Regional War. The invitation,..has been declined.
The queen is cornered. Few more moves like this and ... checkmate
a trap to lure israel to hit the sites and then all doors to hell will be opened 4 israelis .can israel dare attack IRAN? i leave answer to the hawks of israel .
Israel may do bold (some say stupid)things but I doubt that they will use nuclear weapons unless absolutely necessary. If Iran made peace with Israel they could help you build reactors that would put the Russian junk you have to shame. I don't think the best way to make plutonium is having a neutron beam zap a pile of Uranium with no control rods or coolant. The more you enrich it the greater danger you create for your people.
don't you know that facts and objective realism are nothing more than despised nuisances to those who prefer to sow fear and hate...and of course those who blindly buy into their rhetoric.
Iran invites confrontation now with Israel...watch out...Iran is not those Arabs, running for cover, after 6 days war...Iran is 5000 years old civilization with sophistications not seen in the Middle East...Israel interest is best served to seek peace in the region and stop thinking of dictating terms and polices on all Middle East...with the umbrella support of its very stupid American friends in Washington. USA to our regret bring pushed into black hole by Israel...and now Israel will pull USA into another war....this time Israel, you will be bruised very badly, and loose your so called supremacy of being the Dictator of the Middle East. Become please a normal state in our region. Drums of war will not serve Israel and the region. Every day the resistance camp grows stronger thanks to Iran...whether you like it or not.
Talkbackers, the Iranian could have a couple more. It makes it harder for the PR folks for Israel and the US to make it look like Iran is hiding something (not impossible, they'd make Iran inviting the IAEA inspectors to a meeting, asking them to pick somewhere they wanted to inspect, and taking them there sound like a plot). It also gives them a win-win-win situation. If Israel doesn't attack, it'll plant the suspicion that they couldn't. If Israel does attack, and fails, the world will see Israel as a warmonger, and Iran gains the prestige of having handed Israel a defeat. And if Israel attacks and suceeds, not only will they be seen as a warmonger, they will be forced to get clean IAEA inspections or lose access to the EU market. For those claiming it might be a case of wanting Israel to attack for domestic consumption, do you really think the difference between 90% support, and 99% total support is worth that much to them?
In the US Army I was a senior nuclear missle technician, one thing we knew was the prevailing wind currents around the world. the prevailing wind current in the Middle East is easterly which means any nuclear fallout will blow east, toward Iran. Maybe they are that stupid!!!
Robinca, if an blast in the entire stockpile of their low enriched uranium in the open field can end in an massive fall-out, than it is simply an defense measure, building at once and immediate an simple regional doomsday machine. So it is not an measure to invite an attack, but an smart defensive measure to prevent an attack. Contamination of the oil fields in Iran and Arabia would ruin the world entirely, Israel and US included. Maybe some expert between the readers is capable to say something about the the risk and reach of the fall-out of an blasted 2000kg LEU.
can you predict israels demise, i can tell you 100% that if israel attacks iran then the world will come down on you hard, and so will iran, syria, hamas and be very afraid of hezbollah,your as blind as a worm.
"Nothing puzzling.Iranians know Israelis don`t want radiation spreading from bombed uranium stockpiles in the open." - Absolute Sweden Uranium is weakly radioactive. The primary decay product from Uranium is alpha particles which won't even penetrate the skin. Uranium, as with other heavy metals is toxic. Uranium Hexafloride is very reactive and would explode on contact with air, as well as almost everything else. Uranium itself is pyrophoric. There would be local contamination and destruction but no threat of radioactivity. Guess again genius, and take a few high-school science courses.
Iran now feels confident enough and strong enough to take these risks, they know only too well that Israel will only attack soft targets and everyone knows Iran is no soft target. Israel can watch and foam at the mouth, but they know the consequences of an attack on Iran.
The events which happened over two weeks ago which were covered in the front page NY Times article by David E Sanger have a very simple explanation which was given at the time. The events were never secret, had been covered in the open press as well as announced by the IAEA which also supervised the operation. What is amazing is that it is clear Mr. Sanger aware of the real story. He states, "What touched off this whole guessing gamewas a single sentence in one of the normally bone-dry reports of the International Atomic Energy ." That refers to paragraph 12 of GOV/2010/10. It also states "The Agency inspectors sealed the cylinder containing the material to the feed station." Which leads to the question of how what is nothing more than paranoid gossip ends up on the front page of the NY Times when the whole story is known?
"If you want to know the future of Persia (Iran) read Ezekiel 38,39. Hang on to your set its coming!" - John "The word of the LORD came to me: ?Son of man, set your face against Gog, of the land of Magog, the chief prince of Meshech and Tubal; prophesy against him and say: ?This is what the Sovereign LORD says: I am against you, O Gog, chief prince of Meshech and Tubal." - Ezekiel 38:1-3 This story has the nuts coming out of the wood work and the full moon isn't until tomorrow.
Iran wants to test the newly delivered S300
"Tempting Israel to use neutron beam weapon" - Robinca Ah, you saw that on some Star Trek Episode? "I think that it is quite possible that they wish to temp Israel to attack the low enriched Uranium with its Neutronic weapons. " - Robinca Yup, a trekkie! http://memory-alpha.org/en/wiki/Neutronic_weapon
"The real reason is......that they are trying to confuse the enemy. Period." - Jew Then why did they send a letter to the IAEA stating what they were going to do? Why did Iran supervise the whole process of moving the hex from the Natanz Fuel Enrichment Plant to the Natanz Pilot Enrichment Plant? Why does Iran allow the IAEA to inspect all operations at both plants and publish for world to read exactly what is going on? There are some stupid comments on this form, Yours is a classic example. "They have other stockpiles available that the west hasn`t found out about yet and they feel they can afford to use this stockpile as a decoy." - Jew A voice inside your head tell you that?
it will enrich the stock real fast and no need for further enrichment May be thats why iran moved to the open relying on israel to act Dumb as they do all the time
But Sun Tzu and Von Clauwewitch may see a point here. The Iranians may want favorouble political fall out for saving mullah regime and to really put the pressure on the Saudi's and the Gulf States and make it impossible for Assad to switch alliance by moving to the West. After all, they want the Arab heartland of Islam and OIL under their control and couldn't care less for Arab Pals or Israel regarding this matter. The only thing the latter two are to Iran are usefull levers. They are willing to sacrifice big part of own population if needed to reach goal, as Iraq-Iran war showed.
?????????????????????????????????????? I believe you Mark.
Interesting that all of this talk is happening at Purim (book of Esther). If you want to know the future for Damascus (Syria) read Isiah 17 If you want to know the future of Persia (Iran) read Ezekiel 38,39. Hang on to your set its coming!
The nukes will be dropping like rain. Better to prepare now than blame politicians later. A regulation that structure smust have shelters capable of withstanding a nuke attack, occupants surviving at least a month.
Everybody should have a nuke to defend their territory and even more than that to threaten others from a position of equality. Isn't it why in the American West the hand gun was termed the equalizer? It made the small and slow as lethal as the big and the swift. The other great advantage is that nuclear war will finally obliterate mankind, thereby eliminating global warming. Think about it, there will no longer be any need for peoples liberation movements, democracy, evangelism, capitalism, socialism, communism, arabism, zionism, enthicism, cubuism, marxism, stalinism, maoism, castroism, hitlerism, .... It will be quiet and calm and the grass will continue to grow....at least for a while.
Best wishes to everyone for Purim 5770. Free Iran Now!!! Death to the murderers!
He has a name...it's Jesus. The same one that Christian's revere. Isn't that ironic? He'll lead an army out from Damascus. I guess we should have copyrighted our religions' icons.
What would Iran gain from attacking Israel? A response that would radiate the whole Middle East for thousands of years.
The most significant immediate reaction to an Israeli attack upon Iran would be the overnight doubling of oil prices. This would happen even if Iran took no action. The world would rightly hold Israel responsible for this. This would also be likely to cause the largest rift yet in American/Israeli relations. In addition to these bonuses, Iran would get a free shot at Israel. They could take it or not, depending on the situation. Israel would have to be frothing at the mouth to make such an attack, but anything can happen.
I think that it is quite possible that they wish to temp Israel to attack the low enriched Uranium with its Neutronic weapons. Above ground storage also means that attacking the facilities in any way would make one heck of a mess of fallout. This would simultaneously make Israel a stench in the nostrils of the entire Muslim world (to say the least) and also distract from the internal problems threatening to topple Tehran. The more immediate risk is that stores at the surface are far easier for terrorist groups to "steal" for use in dirty bombs which don't need large yields. Hamas (if their banners mean anything) really would like to deliver a suicide nuclear bomb in Israel.
"Iran is daring israel to attack it, they are putting their proof of nuke above ground and begging the israeli government to go ahead and attack us if you dare." - Peter Iran informed the IAEA, and thus the whole world what it was going to do, and why. Then, on schedule, and with IAEA inspectors present it did it. The IAEA has published all of this information. Iran has published all this information. There is no taunt, no conspiracy to goad Israel, no invitation to attack, no black helicopters. Just the open movement as per IAEA safeguard requirements of 3.45% low enriched uranium hexafloride to the pilot plant to be turned into 19.8% low enriched uranium hexaflouride. There is ignorance, the lack of knowledge, education and awareness; then there is willful ignorance, which is obstinately and often perversely self-willed refusal to become knowledgeable, educated and aware. Which is your problem?
oh yes, it will be a much safer world with nukes in the hands of the mad mullahs... what a bunch of idiots you all are.
...that they are trying to confuse the enemy. Period. They have other stockpiles available that the west hasn't found out about yet and they feel they can afford to use this stockpile as a decoy.
Sure, he just needs to stop by the Black Hole Atomic Surplus Store in Los Alamos, NM, (4015 Arkansas Ave. 505-662-5053), ask for "Ed". Any other stupid questions?
Iran is daring israel to attack it, they are putting their proof of nuke above ground and begging the israeli government to go ahead and attack us if you dare. Well israel sent 25 assasins to kill an unarmed man in his hotel room and failed miserably in its "execution" so israel would have to sent all its air force navy and the mossad to attack Iran and most likely will fail as they did in 2006 in Lebanon. Ahmadinjad is challenging you from Syria in the open and plainly, still all israelis do is BLAH BLAH BLAH. put-up or shut-up guys.
Good work. I am glad to see more folks seeking information and refuting inflammatory disinformation and obfuscation.
"or perhaps the un international atomic energy agency is up to some trickery or perhaps they mistook barrels of horse manure for low-enriched uranium... or perhaps the un international atomic energy agency is up to some trickery or perhaps they mistook barrels of horse manure for low-enriched uranium... " - observer Or perhaps observer is purblind. or just ignorant.
The likles of Israel Beitenu will be JUMPING to take a shot and Obama admin will be disgusted.
"We don`t know exactly what is in the above ground facilities but its almost certain that it would be anything so important that if it was bombed it would be a setback to their nuclear program." - zionist forever You don't know. I do. If you had read the IAEA Report GOV/2101/10 a link to which I posted, you would know that on 14 February 2010 the stock of 1950 kg of 3.45% enriched Uranium Hexafloride had been moved from the Fuel Enrichment Plant to the Pilot Plant for enrichment to fuel for the Tehran Research Reactor. The only cascade Iran has configured for such enrichment is located in the Pilot Plant. The Pilot Plant contains a 10 centrifuge cascade of IR-2m machines, a 10 machine IR-4 cascade, a 20-machine IR-2m cascade, single IR-1, IR-2, Ir-2m and IR-4 centrifuges. All of this information is provided in GOV/2010/10 as a result of the presence of IAEA inspectors, inspections and 24/7 surveillance and safeguards.
The movement of the LEU to the Pilot plant happened over a week ago. Why did it take Yossi Melman 10 days after this 'news' was in the open press to discover it? And why doesn't he explain that the Pilot Plant is above ground? Think I am making this up? http://www.politico.com/blogs/laurarozen/0210/IAEA_Iran_report_Iran_transfers_all_LEU_to_pilot_Natanz_facility.html
-ading from bombed uranium stockpiles in the open. They use Israeli humanity as a weapon against Israel ,just like pals do.
The 3.47% Low Enriched Uranium Hexafloride is being moved from the enrichment plant to the Pilot Enrichment Plant to be processed into fuel for the Tehran Research Reactor. There is a single cascade at the Pilot Fuel Enrichment Plant configured to produce fuel for the TRR. A total of 120 kilos of 19.8% enriched fuel is required for the TRR. This will require processing the UF6 into metallic Uranium and producing the fuel plates. Interestingly the Iranians are still appealing to the IAEA to allow them to purchase fuel for the TRR.
Both the NYTimes and Mr Melman say refer to a lack of storage containers in Iran for enriched uranium. The NYTimes is more explicit: ALL of Iran's enriched uranium is in ONE "big specialized cask." When the call went out to enrich the 4-5% enriched uranium to 20% enriched, the entire container was moved to the enrichment facility. Everything else is pure speculation.
Read... http://www.iaea.org/NewsCenter/PressReleases/2010/prn201002.html *shakes head*
does ignorance. All these armchair generals give there reasoning for this bizzare behavior. The iranian's would like to usher in the time of their socalled 12 immam. so as I have been saying for about 2 months now these beligerant animals are GOATING the the IDF/IAF into war. However syria, hamas, hizbullah, turkey have all been plotting a all out war to erase the Hebrew nation off the face of the earth, why is this little country surrounded by enemies still here. ask eygpt what happens to those who side againest Hashem. If Bibi would call for the world jewery to rise up againest the True evil iran he would be suprised with the reponse. ahmadman (dig a grave) is only trying to finish what his idol the nazi arab mufti al-sistani never finished and NO one ever will, its not in the cards.
That may be the Iranian thinking. However, I hope you are not suggesting that any military strike warrants a nuclear response! That logic would dictate that Gaza,Egypt, Lebanon, Syria and others should have been nuked by Israel many times over by now.
Israel...do nothing. If Barack Obama wants to do something..let him do it.
Iran is playing chess here. And the only reason they would ever allow a nuclear site to be known about, is to draw attention away from somewhere else much more critical for their nuclear program. Don't fall for the decoy.
and wooing Israel to play alone. Israel is not interested.
... they hardly come off a conveyer-belt... ... having or not having one or two nukes 'in hand' does not make a 'nuclear power' in the operative sense...
perhaps iran has had an clumsy accident with its nuclear program: then iran planted a "target"; so that after it is attacked, can the damge can be an excuse for iranian clumsiness... or perhaps the un international atomic energy agency is up to some trickery or perhaps they mistook barrels of horse manure for low-enriched uranium... after ALL it is PURIM observer
This one is on the scale, and repetition, of the old chestnut "Ahmadinejad threatened to wipe Israel off the map." Iran told UN atomic commission about this site. "...and as Iran last September was caught building a new underground enrichment site at a military base near the city of Qom."
We don't know exactly what is in the above ground facilities but its almost certain that it would be anything so important that if it was bombed it would be a setback to their nuclear program. Possibly its even a distraction and designed to hide a bellow ground facility if there are any UN inspections. Possibly its for the US spy sattelittes if they have an underground facility they want to keep secret but they know the US is watching and they can't keep it secret when you have trucks coming and going and perimeter fences etc all looks very suspicious but if you have an actual declared nuclear site which is above ground then the sattalites can watch all the good coming and going and there are good reasons why. Possibly to make the program look less secretive and more like an innocent civilian nuclear program rather than something hidden underground. There are many possibilities for them building an above ground facility but its not to invite a strike.
That is all they do, blah blah balh. Now that you have the proof, go ahead and destroy it.
http://www.iaea.org/NewsCenter/PressReleases/2010/prn201002.html
It wouldn't be the first time the Iranian regime decided war on its own soil and the deaths of large numbers of its citizens was preferable to losing its control of the government. It worked last time (rejecting all peace agreements and dragging out the Iran/Iraq war for seven years).
Good insight from X-Military, combining this development with Mahmood's trip to Syria, could mean that he brought him the good news personally. There has been rumours, that there will be a meeting between them and Nasrallh, and Meshal soon in Tehran. Are they going to receive their personal mini bombs???
The president of Iran wants to provoke Israel to strike because he believes he's the chosen one to usher in the Islamic Messiah, who will only come -- according to Muslim belief -- after the world has degenerated into violence. Israel, of course, will have no choice but to fall into this trap and strike Iran as they continue their path to produce nuclear weapons. May God help us all.
on the black market.
Can anybody tell me, if any country in the world is capable of buying a nuke from the Russian loose system instead of developing it? the same way, Palestinians were buying the guns from the IDF Generals(during Arafat Era). is there is a possibility, of a north Korean sale of an atomic bomb, flying in a civilian airplane to any country in the world. any thoughts?
provocating an Israeli attack no way
... saying that even if Iran had a nuke, it would not strike Israel...
I don't think Iran will use the nuke bomb on Israel,the only way i see iranians using nukes on Israel,is americans or israelis using nukes on Iran,in such case the nuclear retaliation is for sure,and not only on Israel....... Israelis are afreid of Iran nuclear capabilities,because a nuclear Iran power give the power of hizballah to act free on Israeli interests and targets.Arabs will be encoraged with a nuclear Iran,and nuclear proliferation will be a fact,creating a nuclear race in middleast,where Israel has all the points to lose. On the other Hand,i think Iran has nuclear power more greater than Pakistan,this is because Ahmadinejad has said it,indirectly. Bush had the chance to destroy iranian nuclear program,but he failed,and now the world will be different soon.Don't ask to Obama for miracles,nuclear Iran is unnavoidable at this stage.
Could be Iran has the nuke completed and wants Israel to attack so it has a legitimate reason to hit back at Israel with the nuclear device.