Iran can no longer talk credibly of 'exporting the revolution'
Tehran has built centers of control across the Middle East and beyond - but remains vulnerable at home.
By Zvi Bar'el Tags: Iran election 2009 Iran nuclear Israel newsCelebrations' to mark the anniversary of Iran's Islamic revolution on Thursday began early this year as the state closed on dissidents last week, arresting hundreds including 47 Iranian journalists employed by foreign media.
One Revolutionary Guard commander suggested putting the journalists on trial as 'traitors to the nation', as students began receiving telephone threats and opposition websites vanished from the internet.
Dozens of roadblocks sprang up on highways into Tehran and thousands of Basij militia received orders to man pro-government demonstrations.
But even as the state moved to crush protest against the Islamic regime, the government continued to trumpet particularly secular and 'Western' achievements to prove its superiority over enemies at home and abroad.
Iran's pageant of technological advance has in the last few weeks included a satellite launch, missile trials, test-flying a new 'stealth' aircraft and the unveiling of a domestically produced electric car - all to show the world that sanctions have done nothing to dampen Iranian creativity.
The announcement earlier this week that Iran would begin producing of high-grade nuclear fuel - amid increasingly implausible claims by the head of the country's Atomic Energy Authority that a deal to send uranium abroad for enrichment is still on the table - is yet another attempt to signal that Iran is unruffled by Western pressure.
With the United States struggling to overcome Chinese - and until recently, Russian - reluctance to stiffen UN sanctions, Iran's defiance may well continue.
In answer to the regime's bragging, opposition activists are expected to choose Thursday's anniversary for a show of strength. Arrests, torture and hangings have done little to quell the storm of opposition that erupted after disputed elections last June, surprising both the ruling Ayatollahs and the West.
What initially seemed to the regime to be a minor flurry of dissent, expected to die down in a few days, has crystallized into a genuine movement for change. The political rupture has crossed all strata of Iranian society, including senior clerics. Even if the opposition fails to change the face of the regime, Iran's ageing rulers will have no choice but to bow to the demands of a new generation (70 percent of Iranians are younger than 30) and enact reforms.
After 31 years the remaining figureheads of 1979, such as Khamenei and Rafsanjani, can no longer talk credibly of 'exporting the revolution' - and even discussing the position of the Supreme Leader is no longer taboo.
Yet instead of exporting ferment, the Ayatollahs now export policy. Iran has become a significant power with centers of control across the Middle East and beyond.
Thanks to the United States' war in Iraq, Iran has gained influence over the new state emerging on its western border. Iran practically dictates politics in Lebanon through its near-control of Hezbollah; and in Gaza through Hamas. Iranian influence in the Sudan and East Africa is strengthening, are ties with Ankara, Islamabad and Kabul.
Tehran continues to defy Western nuclear diplomacy, all the time sewing fear among its rivals in Cairo and Riyadh. Egypt and Saudi Arabia are terrified not so much by the prospect of an Iranian atom bomb as by the Ahmadinejad government's continual success in subverting Arab policy.
Iran may be a country under sanctions - but it is not isolated. Still, its impressive foreign policy coups cannot hide grave failures at home. The oil-rich state imports 40 percent of its gasoline, which it cannot refine at home, and spends a colossal $68 billion on imported raw materials and machinery each year.
Not only is the government dependant on foreign supplies; as its popular legitimacy declines, the regime is increasingly reliant on the elite Revolutionary Guard, which controls both national security and swathes of the economy. If, as expected, the UN enforces new sanctions in the coming weeks, it is these elites who will be targeted.
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Excellent article and right on target! The Iranian regime does have nuclear capabilities, but they can use other proxy states such as Lebanon, Syria, Jordan and groups like Hizbullah, Hamas to do their bidding. They are an Evil influences in the world and their initial goal is to try to either destroy or severely damage Israel and their ability to do business as usual. Israel knows this and I believe that they will have to make the first move against first Lebanon, Syria and then Iran being as Iran has to send missiles further than the aforementioned proxies, thus the more immediate threat. We are heading for tough times in this world and it is a shame that countries like Britain, U.S. and others aren't on board with Israel to put an end to this lunacy. But in some ways i believe that these western countries want to let israel take the blame for what they will ultimately have to do and then insult them for simply protected their homeland. Sad, very sad,
A democracy in Iraq? 511 opposition members were banned from the ballot for the upcoming elections. Now they will be allowed to run, but will be banned from serving later. That is democracy? Well, maybe in the Arab world. In 2008, Iran and Iraq did $4 billion in business, which went to fund terrorism and Iran's nuclear buildup. The amount will be greater in 2009. Iraqi PM Maliki has promised to fight on Iran's side should the US or Israel go to war against Iran. Iraq shares Iran's policy on terrorism, Israel, etc.
Glad to see you agree with this article. You're right that Israel will have to make some painfull adjustments I agree with you that the seeds of Iran's destruction have been sown. GOOD POINT!.
iran prove to be masters of techtecs and strategy letting the west to remove its strongest enemies in iraq (saddam)and (taliban)in afganistan giving iran free hand to do what ever they wish because no real threat to face , with the collapsing american power and the very fraghile isreali force proven by hundreds of fghiters in lebanon and gaza, so isreal will wait for ever depending on the iranian to achieve what isreal cannot do anything about
Durson....Israel isnt mentioned or discussed in the article. you really should read the articles before you share your limited thoughts. Across the Muslim world 230 innocent Muslims were killed today at the hands of fellow Muslims, and nearly 300 yesterday, but I cant find a single word on it from you...why is that.
Now, there is a relative democracy in Iraq, with mostly American and Western support among the populace. By now, Uday or Qusay might very well have been in power. It is irresponsible and wrong to suggest that America "worsened" the ME situation.
I read a very clear warning and prediction here, one Bradly Burston for instance could agree with in my view. Not hatred at all.
(1) in most Muslim-majority nations, the majority (70%+) of Muslims are Sunnis--which do not like Shias, the overwhelming (95%+) majority in Iran (2) it cannot export goondacracy to any Muslim-majority nation, as most of them (exceptions Turkey and Bangladesh) are already goondacracies (of either monarchist, military or other type) In other words, it would be "taking coal to Newcastle"!
I don't understand what your posting has to do with this article about Iran. What drives you that you have to spread such hatred even in totally unrelated areas.
Natallie, I fail to see the link in your post. The good people of Iran are courageous beyond our understanding. In fact they have taken the regime by surprise. Arbitrary arrests,torture and hangings will not stop this Iranian Tsunami called FREEDOM. The current export of revolution, has truly become impressive. Its not only in the Middle East and Africa, its also in South America. Hopefully diplomacy, bolstered through sanctions will have some positive effect, though I do disagree that Iran could enrich uranium at 20%-80% since it would require far more advanced equipment and retooling. Rather we are witnessing some truths and mostly bluff when the media has been informed of certain technical breakthroughs in stealth technology or other advances in outer space. Have a nice day.
Anything to be a thorn in the side of Israel regardless of what that means for the the rest of the world. Hateful, selfish and daft.
Not to mention what they are doing to their own countrymen in the opposition as well as journalists and foreign dignitaries.
Every nation has within it the seeds of its destruction. Israel has this a hundred times over. It is easy to be smug and superior about political unrest in Iran because Israel has always nurtured and coddled its potential seeds of destruction. Whether it be settlers, Haredi, or IDF refuseniks, Israel will have its day in the barrel. Israel has long been making its own domestic monsters. One day Israel will have to face those monsters and the result will make all of the efforts of Hamas and Hizbollah pale in comparison.