Incumbent party retains power in Indian elections

CALCUTTA − The results are in: India?s 15th Parliamentary elections have yielded a victory for the incumbent Indian National Congress ?(INC?) and its United Progress Alliance ?(UPA?). In a one-month-long election that often described as ?staggering? in scale, the UPA?s victory took many by surprise.

The main national parties in the fray were the INC, which was part of the ruling UPA government, and the Bharatiya Janata Party ?(BJP?), which led the National Democratic Alliance ?(NDA?). The NDA was the first coalition to complete the full five-year term.

While political analysts and exit polls had predicted the UPA would gain seats, most election predictions had been for a hung parliament, with many pundits even claiming that India would go to polls again in the next year or so.

The electorate proved them wrong. There has been no anti-incumbency factor; in fact the INC, which won a total of 200 seats, has more seats this time around than in 2004, when it won 150 seats.

With the UPA winning 256 seats and retaining power, it is set to form the next government, led by the INC. This will make Dr. Manmohan Singh the first prime minister after Jawaharlal Nehru to come back after completing a full term in office.

It is widely believed that the UPA was boosted by its ?pro-poor? image and the INC?s ?aam aadmi? ?(common person?) slogan. The UPA?s main thrust had been rural development, and its policies included universal primary education and the National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme. Much of India?s electorate is rural voters.

The BJP?s campaign, on the other hand, had focused more on restructuring the economy and on national security. These issues still tend to remain rather remote for rural voters. BJP also has an anti-minority image.The new government?s policies are likely to remain the same, it is believed. Change is not expected, even though young INC President Rahul Gandhi has said he wants to ?change the country?s politics.?

No sweeping change is expected in foreign policy matters, either. This time around, the UPA will not need support from the Left parties, as it did in 2004. This will give it a freer hand. In 2008, for example, the Left withdrew its support for the UPA over the Indo-U.S. civilian nuclear deal.

India?s foreign policy has been relatively consistent, regardless of which government is in power. In fact, foreign policy is one area where the political parties usually are in broad consensus. For example, many of the UPA?s policies in the last five years, were astutely built on initiatives begun by its predecessor − the NDA government. These include resuming peace talks with Pakistan, the civilian nuclear deal with the U.S., Russia, France and Kazakhstan, and military cooperation with Israel.

India has been a traditional supporter of the Palestinians, and keeps its cooperation and ties with Israel low-key because of its large Muslim minority. Nevertheless, it was under an INC government that India established full diplomatic ties with Israel in 1992. Israel became India?s largest arms supplier this year.

The new government?s foreign policy priority will most likely be its neighbors: Fear of a Taliban takeover of Pakistan looms large, and Nepal is on the verge of a civil war. In the South, the Sri Lankan army, while hunting down the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Ealam ?(LTTE?) has engaged in widespread killing and displacement of Tamil civilians who share ethnic, cultural and religious bonds with people from the Southern Indian state of Tamil Nadu.