Experts: Iran enrichment plans are largely bluster

is from the iran embassy in london.they tell us numerous families are involved in the industry. it os also a way to keep their women busy and productive. a nation of over seventy million many living in villages depend on this ancient art for their living.whole families are involved including young children. lately the far east has been involved in making carpets and so exports from iran may fall.

iran has reached breakout capability. it also has the ballistic missiles for a nuclear warhead. it also has the design for a nuclear warhead. iran has obtained much from a.q. khan, north korea and help from foreign scientists in its weaponisation program. iran has been able to increase leu production even while using fewer centrifuges, which proves that they have increased their profficiency in enrichment. there is no reason for the existence of iran's nuclear program other than military since it does not fit a civilian program. hezbollah is without doubt an iranian proxy. the military wing is directly controlled by revolutionary guards. i certainly hope that hezbollah is not interested in another war. they got pounded in 2006. what hezbollah calls a "mistake," was many years of provocation. only in the middle east would a cross border raid accompanied by katyushas on a sovereign state be considered a "mistake." hezbollah only says it was a mistake because they lost big time.

the two statements "s" has quoted are clearly declarations of intent. that you should not be concerned that the leaders of iran clearly state that "the perpetual aim of iran is the obliteration of israel," and "the application of an atomic bomb would not leave anything in israel," says a lot about your ethics and sense of reality.

and it has NO "near complete nuclear weapons". it doesn't even have uranium that's been enriched enough to make a bomb...or even to run a reactor. no one likes the ruling regime in iran cipora, and personally, i'd like to see "it" wiped from the face of the earth...but NOT by israel, or the united states, or anyone else outside of iran; and especially not over something that so far has been based more on circumstantial evidence, conjecture and presumptions than it has facts. we don't need a repeat of the iraq mistake. the iranians themselves will deal the regime given time, and support from the world. and until we KNOW iran is working towards nuclear weapons; nothing should change that. and honestly cipora, what makes you think that hezbollah is so much of an extension of iran? of course iran's going to arm hezbollah as long as its goal is israel's defeat. but that DOESN'T necessarily mean its going to risk all at iran's bidding...especially NOT in a losing proposition. don't forget, hezbollah is going to take care of hezbollah FIRST. you really think hezbollah's interested in going head on against israel? even the 2006 war was a mistake as far as it was concerned. they flat out stated that israel's response blew them away, and that they had never anticipated it. it went something like "if we'd known israel would respond this way; we would never have done it". afterwards of course, it was all bluster and defiance, and them claiming victory. it's always that way though, isn't it cipora...bluster, defiance, and rhetoric. that's because they have more of that than anything else.

where have i lied? what you've quoted are not threats. incitement maybe...but NOT threats. there's a difference between "someone needs to blow your ass away", and "i'm gonna blow your ass away". both express the sentiment of wishing you dead, but only one threatens to carry out that wish. as for rafsanjani being "moderate", that's true to extent, but it's my understanding, from a couple articles i read several years ago, that iranian moderates don't differ THAT much from the hardliners, except for tolerance and personal freedoms. maybe persian kitty can clarify. but either way, his rhetoric would still have had to follow the lead of the supreme ayatollah. and of course, after recent events in iran, some "moderates" may have actually become more moderate moderates. seems that once the movement began, it ended up dragging them along with it.

iran "has not yet shown any nuclear weapons capability despite having the ability to produce them." mark, capability is synonymous with ability. so you agree that iran has the ability to produce nuclear weapons. once iran does so, iran will control the middle east, have the power to engage in economic and military blackmail, and will also have the means to proliferate to any countries inimical to the u.s. the situation with the former ussr has nothing to do with iran. after stalin's death, the ussr became a rather rational country in its foreign policy dealings. even khrutchev was rather rational as history has shown. iran has shown no rationality in its dealings thus far. quite to the contrary, iran has shown that it will not respond even to the most reasonable offers of diplomatic solutions. thus far, iran has demonstrated that it is interested only in a blind pursuit of its nuclear weapons program without regard to any political or military consequences.

all the Iranians I've met are very friendly. They have been demonized too long by the main stream media.

by selling its oil and gas at high prices. Iran threatens Israel with bluster.

Iran will tried to negotiate with the world by reducing its planned 10 enrichment plants down to 5. That should make everybody happy.

Dude, your 8 million figure is so skewed that you couldn't even see the center line! The actual figure is 1.2 million (which translates to 1.6% of the population). And what is wrong with that? It's a millennia-old skill still unmatched anywhere in the world. I'd be surprised if you don't own one yourself! Every American Jew I know owns at least one Persian rug!! Harzi maybe you should visit Iran and see how different the media portrays the country; and what sheep you and your type are to believe every single propaganda fed to you. Don't get me wrong LOTS is wrong w/Iran but its carpet industry isn't one of them-- neither is its people, nor the culture that has saved your people on multiple occasions.

israel is both historically,presently and in the future, the legitimate as the home of the JEWISH people. They did not come into being as a result of the holocaust, even though it was a very good and just reason for it as a result of the holocaust, but the location was not just randomly selected you buffoon. Israel(what used to be called palestine as given to the jewish land by the romans)does not have to justify it's existance or it's self defense. They said yes to the full partition in 1947..did you miss that or something? arabs said no..what about 48? what about husseini telling arabs to leave? what about 1964(PLO founding) 3 full yrs PRIOR to any occupation...go on natalie, say something you anti semtic goof. does your anti semitism blind you to facts? israel has NEVER targeted any civilians..whereas the pals always strategically target israeli civilians...question for you natalie, if there was no occupation in 1964, what was the PLO founded to liberate?

Coming from Turkey I will assume you must be a rather well educated Turk who made it all the way to Australia. In that case you must understand that a small nation the size of less then Konya with a population of just about 5 million compared to Istanbul being over 20 million, surrounded by many big oil rich Arab,/ Muslim states that have vowed to destroy it since 1948 Israel must have strong defenses and strong deterrents. However in its most desperate times, Israel did not use it. On the other hand you should very wel lknow that nuclear power in the hand of fanatic Mullahs in Iran with a president who clearly and openly threatens t owipe out israel is a danger. And not just a danger to israel but also to the other neighbouring states especially to secular Turkey. iyi aksamlar Oktay.

mark , you are soooooo right .

"iran keeps expanding its conventional and nuclear weapons capabilities." - Cipora Iran does continue to expand it's conventional capabilities. It has not yet shown any nuclear weapons capability despite having the ability to produce them. "the longer the stand-off, the larger the price the west will have to pay." - ibid I heard that line from John Birch Society types 50 years ago, and from the Committee for the Present Danger' types 30 years ago. We did not have to attack Russia as they said we did. "soon the time will come when the price will become prohibitive." - ibid It already is. "the iranian leadership does not care about loss of life, or about economic loss to the country." - ibid Only an external threat can save them. "the iranian leadership`s only goal is to consolidate and increase its iron grip on power." - Cipora Finally you have something right. But then you probably don't see how desperate they are and how close they are to losing power.

Right eric?

it is a nation where eight million men women and children are involved in carpet weaving.it is a nation hit for millenia by severe earthquakes yet has noty changed the way it builds its housing.it is an oil rich nation that has to seek science and technology from famine ravaged north korea. is iran blustering?yes.

eric says: "to curtail oil shipments ... which by the way, is the ONLY threat iran has voiced towards anyone." And the media (LA Times): "In a series of national sermons on December 15, 2000 and later in January 2001, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei declared that "The cancerous tumor called Israel must be uprooted from the region....and the perpetual aim of Iran is the obliteration of Israel." On December 14, 2001, former Iranian president Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani said that it might be a good thing to strike Israel with nuclear weapons. "The application of an atomic bomb would not leave anything in Israel, but the same thing would just produce damages in the Muslim world," Mr. Rafsanjani said. "Jews shall expect to be once again scattered and wandering around the globe the day when this appendix [Israel] is extracted from the region and the Muslim world." (1)" My note: Rafsanjani is the "moderate" one...

Saddam may have blustered. But Bush and Cheney believed him enough to start a war that cost 4000 GI's lives and about 40,000 permanently maimed, along with countless Iraqis. The dinnerjacket's words are not sufficient for war. I don't care how offensive the words are or were. If that make me an antisemite, so be it. Que Sera Sera.

a capability is just that. it means that iran is expanding its nuclear capabilities. read the iaea reports. as for the missiles, the navy and the near complete nuclear weapons being for retaliation, and for "economic blackmail," i suggest you review the lebanon war 2. there are now tens of thousands of missiles aimed at israel from three directions, plus mini-subs. i also suggest that you take a good look at the present situation with north korea and pakistan. you can always pray that none of the weapons fall into the hands of uncontrolled terrorists. your reference to missile defence was answered by israel iaf chief maj. gen. ido nehushtan who said that there is no security against multidirectional missiles aimed at israel. no military should underestimate the severe threat posed by a nuclear iran. a nuclear iran would control the entire region directly and through "blackmail," and would be in a position to proliferate to other states far away.

and it's conventional capabilities, other than naval, are generally lacking by modern standards. there's little doubt that its missile program is meant to compensate for that lack by providing it with a capability of retaliation...as ineffective as they might be against any missile defense system. and for similar reasons, it's emphasis on naval capability, which actually provides it with the means for inflicting the most damage; by disrupting the free flow of oil through the gulf. imagine that, cipora. the MOST effective capability the iranian military really has is its ability to curtail oil shipments from the gulf. actually, call it economic blackmail...and just like its missiles, for the purpose of retaliation. which by the way, is the ONLY threat iran has voiced towards anyone.

Iran must not be allowed to have nuclear bomb. The mad dogs in Iran will target Isreal at the end of the day. My take is nothing but military action against Iran. These Iranans do not respect any international agreement or law.

... but it did not prevent his neck from being stretched. There is no call for the words coming out of A'jad's pie hole.

Iran's posturing seemed to backfire. Iran is not Russia nor China which possess the technical and financial capabilities to enrich uranium. Its Revolutionary Guards missile gunboats in the Gulf would be a perfect targets for US and Western powers naval forces.

that's correct natalie

Ten more nuclear sites might be bluster, but what Iran presently has, is not. While Rome is burning, nero fiddles!!! further sanctions, that must be a joke! The debates continue and so does the construction. If Iran succeeds with a nuclear bomb, will the so-called friends of Israel come to it's rescue?

There is no proof that Iran is building the bomb, and even if they are then Israel is responsiable for starting the arms race in the middle east. Remember the secret nuclear site in Dimona and the life jail sentence for the Israeli nuclear technitian vernonu for telling the world that Isreal has 200 nuclear bombs in early 80's.

on their way to Dubai for a 360 mile yacht race. Said to have violated Iranian waters.

All, First, the sanctions already in place has hurt Iran. Iran basically has to launder money to do non-oil trade with the rest of the world. It's oil exports have declined over the last decade. Also, oil has to be $100/bbl for the Iranian government to break even. Outside of oil, defense, pistachios and small business, Iran has a stagnant economy. Consequently, the educated, the business elite and (more importantly) the bazaaris (small businessmen that overthrew the Shah) are blocked out of both the government and the economy. Iran must move to a totalitarian society run by the Revolutionary Guard or will crack. Russia has been playing a game but gains nothing by creating an independent nuclear power on its Southern border. The banking sanctions (that has made buying nuclear part very difficult for Iran) were passed the last time Iran rejected Russian offers to enrich uranium for Iran. Sanctions will include refined gasoline and raw materials (such as lithium).

Iran has offered that it's LEU be sealed and kept under IAEA supervision in Iran to be simultaneously exchanged with the nuclear rods from Russia/France. Can any one tell me what is wrong with this proposal. Isn't the end result of this proposal and that of President Obama exatly the same. Who's interest is to disrupt this deal? It's about time that all opposing sides in the middle east to sit down around a table and discuss seriously how not to let outsiders ruin further their countries. Eventually peace will arrive one day. Isn't it better to arrive before a devastating war than after?

Do you believe Iran is a sane democratic country ? Do you believe in DEMOCRACY ? Do you agree with the Ayatolah's handling of political opposition ?

"But I guess the US (and the rest of the West) feels that when it conflicts with their wishes, the NNPT is not worth the paper its written on." - Richard Pearce Last year the US voided the NPT by selling nuclear materials and technology to India which is a non-signatory. Yesterday Canada followed by doing the same. Clearly the NPT means nothing to either of those nations.

it before the rules say it has to, it's criticised. If Iran announces it is going to build an enrichment plant before any work has been done, it is criticised. Signing the NNPT, and complying with the rules in regards to inspections and disclosures is supposed to get a country things like access to nuclear fuel rods that it cannot produce itself, and the ability to have a nuclear energy program. But I guess the US (and the rest of the West) feels that when it conflicts with their wishes, the NNPT is not worth the paper its written on. Indeed, that seems to be the US position on everything (geneva convention, UN Charter, and on and on). The biggest question then has to be, how long will the majority of the world put up with that, and how ironic people will find it when the US is screaming that the rules must be followed when it no longer is the one in charge.

Yes, Iran might be building more batteries, but the sudden interest in Lithium and a BIG buy of 99% mercury might indicate someone intends to build a Colex separation plant. Curiously, one of the sister-firms of the one seeking the mercury is a supplier of Molybdenum targets. There is nothing firm, but the pattern is suggestive. I have still not seen anything conclusive about an Iranian bomb program, but I am always looking.

...of "West-kind of santions"? "Could Israel do anything whithout the American "green light"? If it did, Iran certainly would spur its friends and proxies into retaliation against Israeli and American targets in the region and around the world and would seek to close the Strait of Hormuz blocking the export of Gul oil to the west and dramatically raising the world oil price" (The Economist)

.....a few steps more to catch up with. the more steps, the higher the dangers. more sanctions being drafted as we argue among ourselves..... followed by the anouncement of 50 more nuke stations to be built on Lebanese land to supply electricity to Hizbolah....and Syria.....with the help of Russia's Putin and North Korea. Next World War : Iran, Syria, Hizbolah/Lebanon, Hamas, North Korea, Venezuela, Bolivia, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Malaysia, ....and Russia... AGAINST : Israel, USA, Canada, Australia, India,Guinea (in Africa), perhaps UK, France, Germany, Italy,Japan, Kurdistan, Armenia,..... Abstentions: China, Brazil,Monaco, Cyprus, ....... All other countries : ?????????????????????

First of all all these threats aqgainst Iran are not worth the paper they are written on. Second, you are ignorant o0f the fact that Israel with it's 5,5 million Jews and 1.5 million Arabs is surounded by 300 million Muslims who wish to wipe her of the map (U 2 ) Iran threatens the whole western world with Israel being Number 1 Target.

Is that why they inssit on HEU instead of the Pu

Iran has respected it's rights under the NPT. Many other countries have not...could Iran be singled out because of it's OIL...our is it because there government is not full of our chosen dictators. Amazingly their "sob's" are always worse then our "sob's". Remember O-peration I-raqi L-iberation, renamed operation iraqi freedom. Folks this is all about controlling ressources

The US and EU are so pathetic. They will be ignored because they will never do anything except "sanctions" which are as useless as the governments that initiate them. Now Israel vis a vie Iran is a different matter ...

"We need to buy mercury 98% ~ 99% tech grade. Qty.: 10mt Delivery : CFR bandar abbas Iran Payment term : L/c sight Please inform us if you can supply. If you are interested, please do not hesitate to contact with our office for more information, and at the same time we hope to set up a long-term business relationship with your esteemed company in the very near future." - an advertisement from a 40 year old chemical dealer in Tehran The man works for a pesticide manufacturer in Iran. According to the government of Iran, the use of Mercury in pesticides was banned in 1974. http://www.chem.unep.ch/MERCURY/OEWG1/Response_GOV_Iran.pdf The intersection of massive imports of mercury and lithium is a grim place.

All this legalistic fru-fru obscures from the craven leadership of the West that they have to make a decision as to what to do, diplomatically, economically, or militarily, given that Iran is expanding its nuclear program with periodic traces of nuclear weapon breakout and that Russia and China are pretty much OK with that. Doing nothing is actually an option. Doing nothing with endless but increasingly empty pronouncements that something will be done ("Oh, yeah? Step over that line. Oh yeah? Step over *that* line! Oh, yeah!!??? Step over THAT line!!!! Oh, yeah?....") is an invitation to contempt, aggression, ultimate miscalculation, and, worst case, an unavoidable war.

By the way, Israel is not responsible for global climate change, the swine flu, or the San Francisco earthquake of 1906. If Israel ceases to exist your personal life will not improve. The problems you have in your actual personal life will not go away, and generally, politically, some other source of war, conflict, and passion will surely emerge. Life is life. Demonizing scapegoats hasn't worked so far in four thousand years of recorded history.

Mark--you have dragged Israel into a situation that Israel is not responsible for--this is the hallmark of anti-Semitism, the refusal to see that Jewish claims have truth and the syllogistic reversal of reality. Iran has independently broken out of the NPT as was noted by Israel. Israel had no new lessons to offer Iran. As for Gaza, you ignore the fact that Israel had withdrawn its presence from Gaza--the result was Palestinian destruction of greenhouses and the launching of rockets.

I hope that when sanctions are extended they will cover the export of Mercury and Lithium to Iran. Iran just signed a deal with Bolivia to increase Lithium production. I have been watching this story develop and it does not bode well.

Canada has just joined the USA in voiding the NPT by selling nuclear materials and technology to non-signatory nation India.

Iran has not signed the Addional Protocol, so it is in its right not to abide with that. By a similar logic, Israel has not signed the NPT, so they are allowed to have nuclear weapons. You can't have it both ways. If Israel is not bound by treaties it did not sign, neither is Iran.

Do as you would have others do unto you. Israel is in exactly the same position as Iran on non-declaration of nuclear sites, so what is good for the goose

No one is permitted to make nuclear weapons. Not being an NPT member does not mean certain attack. Look at Israel, North Korea, India, and Pakistan, no one attacks their nuke sites. Now the Americans are calling for a return to the 1967 borders. Soon they will lead the world call for 67 borders. Then, just like South Africa, Israel will become a more civilized state

Should Iran put its armed forces in the control of an autonomous group less answerable to Irans leadership. Is there a precedent for this in liberal democracies? I ask this thinking of the UK decision to invade Iraq despite her own population being opposed, and an armed forces less under the control of the leadership might have been helpful. What kind of terror have western forces been carrying out against civilians at wedding parties in Afghanistan and flour factories in Gaza or water treatment facilities in lebanon? Do western powers observe the 'laws of war' when they attack dirt poor civilians filling jerry cans with petrol in Afghanistan or dropping white phosphorous on densely populated areas in Gaza, all for broadcast on global tv news networks or are these laws only observed when convenient? Why so pompous. Are you related to comical Ali.

It is a good idea for all of the nations in the region to be ready for any aggressive move from Israel. It is not only the killing of civilians that characterizes Israel. It is their lack of remorse when killing civilians that is a message to the world. We need a hero. America has proven too cowardly. Perhaps Iran will rise to the task.

Iran's centrifuge program is WAY behind schedule and not capable of building '10' new plants. It hasn't even been able to supply centrifuges for the new facility. That plant was originally to have been a pilot facility for the IR-2 centrifuge, which has not yet gone into production. New installations at Natanz have been delayed for the same reason. The story is ignored. The REAL story is Iran is thumping it's chest, boasting, and bluffing.

Meanwhile, Pakistan is playing musical chairs with the national nuclear weapon authority being ripped from the President and assigned to the Prime Minister as the President loses his amnesty and becomes exposed to corruption charges. Feelin' Up?

The definition of insanity is repeating the same action over & over & expecting a different outcome every time. For over 8 years the international community has tried dialogue with Iran and each time Iran has spit in the face of the U.S. & EU negotiators. What on earth makes Kouchner things will be different this time when Iran has announced plans to build 10 uranium enrichment plants?

Unable to make a serious comment about the Iranian situation you drop back to a cheap shot at Israel instead. Taking lessons indeed Mark, with Natallie as your teacher. The fact is Mark, Israel had nothing to do with the Mullah's decision to build 10 enrichment plants without a single civilian power plant on the drawing board. I must have read ten posts from you declaring that you believed Iran's nuclear program was peaceful. Instead of slagging off Israel, how about explaining to us why Iran feels the need to construct 10+2=12 enrichment facilities when your own country only has 1... and also why Iran has no plans to construct a reactor that would actually use the fuel to create electricity?

They can build as many as they want so they are in perfect compliance.

"these so called "revolutionary guards," will carry out all and any acts of terror against western or other "enemy" forces without regard to any laws of war" You mean just like Israel?

Who do you think will be the next on Iran's list once the Little Satan has been annihilated?

Mr .Obama your policy of engagement has failed , What are you going to do ?Impose sanctions ,this too will fail .Then what are you going to do? Nothing , a weak President with no backbone . The American people should know Iran plans to destroy first Israel ,then the USA .

"One of Iran's vice presidents said Monday that Tehran had no intention of building 10 new uranium enrichment facilities, until it was criticized by the United Nations nuclear watchdog for secretly constructing another facility" Absolute nonsense. What kind of country responds in this manner? "We don't like what you said about us so now we're going to teach you a lesson by doing it tenfold...so there..na na na na na na" The only logical conclusion is that further enrichment plants have been on the drawing board for some time, waiting for a reason to be constructed. The mullah's feigned indignation and collective tantrum now provides the raison d'etre. How much longer is this ridiculous charade going to go on for?

as all totalitarian states have done historically, iran has subsumed the traditional military and put in charge "revolutionary" elements whose loyalty to the regime is unquestioned. as in all other cases, these "revolutionary" elements are further encouraged in their zeal by hefty economic incentives. these so called "revolutionary guards," will carry out all and any acts of terror against western or other "enemy" forces without regard to any laws of war.

iran keeps expanding its conventional and nuclear weapons capabilities. the longer the stand-off, the larger the price the west will have to pay. soon the time will come when the price will become prohibitive. the iranian leadership does not care about loss of life, or about economic loss to the country. the iranian leadership's only goal is to consolidate and increase its iron grip on power.

Iran seems to have taken lessons from Israel in "he made me do it" diplomacy. It's all the US' and IAEA's fault that Iran will dig more holes in the ground and build more centrifuges. Sounds just like Israeli government reasoning for what happens in the settlements and what happened in Gaza. "They won't negotiate under our preconditions, so we have to build more and steal more land." "We had to bomb them with WP. They made us do it."