Sharon to pursue a lesser evil

The averaged results of all three television surveys suggest that Prime Minister Ariel Sharon would be able to form a right-wing plus ultra-Orthodox coalition within a week that could survive for a long time.

However, in recent private conversations Sharon has repeatedly declared "there will be no right-wing government."

Sharon doesn't see himself at the head of a coalition that includes the National Union and its leader, Avigdor Lieberman - a government that would halt all political progress, push to expel Arafat, and keep Israel from getting American loan guarantees.

For the next 42 days, Sharon will do everything in his power and use everything at his disposal to establish a national unity government in the image of the previous one - including the Labor Party. If he fails, he will approach Shinui and offer the anti-religious party a place in a narrow, right-wing government, with or without Shas.

If that fails too, Sharon will be forced to establish the government he doesn't want - a right-wing government with the Haredi parties - and hope to change its composition later.

Sharon's favorite is a national unity government with the Labor Party. He will try to recruit his old friend Shimon Peres and various lobbies - from finance, defense, academia, agriculture, mayors, and even from the U.S. and Europe - to put pressure on Labor to join the government.

Sharon will use the impending conflict with Iraq to soften the opposition of senior Labor officials to his rule. One senior Labor official already said last night that if Peres "starts with his tricks to create a national unity government, he will travel that route alone and he will end up like Moshe Dayan - alone and desolate."

A Likud government with Labor would include the National Religious Party, Yisrael b'Aliya, United Torah Judaism, Shas and One Nation - without National Union. That would be about 76-77 seats.

Another optional government, although one hard to imagine, is Lapid's dream - a secular unity government. Sharon would have to do the inconceivable and violate the Likud's long-standing pact with the Haredi parties. This would drag Sharon into conflict with the faction of his own party led by Benjamin Netanyahu.

Netanyahu and others in the Likud will not allow Sharon to demand that they pay the price for his last term in office, and would vehemently oppose the removal of the religious parties. But Labor would have a hard time turning down an offer to join the coalition, whichwould include Likud, Shinui, Labor, Yisrael b'Aliya and One Nation and have about 74-75 seats. If NRP agreed to join a secular coalition, they would bring another four seats.

If Labor sticks to its guns, Sharon will offer Shinui a place in the coalition but demand the party waive its "no ultra-Orthodox" condition. Tommy Lapid and Joseph Paritzky yesterday said Shinui will not renege on its pledge not to sit with the ultra-Orthodox at the cabinet table.

If Lapid insists, Sharon will eventually have to bid farewell to Shas. In that case the coalition will include Shinui, Yisrael b'Aliya, One Nation, National Union and NRP. This would amount to about 68 seats. Sharon hopes Shinui's agreement would lead to Labor, or some of Labor, joining the coalition.

It is still too early to tell if UTJ and the NRP would join any coalition with Shinui. If those two vetoed the move, Sharon would not be able to give up Shas. A right-wing government with Shinui would not be stable because most Shinui MKs are left-wingers and would not be happy to approve policies not to their liking.

The government Sharon least wants is a narrow, right-wing government with Likud, Shas, NRP, UTJ, Yisrael b'Aliya, National Union, and maybe One Nation, which would have approximately 68 seats. That government would last a long time, because toppling it would require a 61-member majority,.

A narrow, right-wing government would suffer daily beatings at the hands of an efficient and aggressive opposition of Labor, Shinui, and Meretz. It would be hard for such a government to function, given the economic, social and security problems. But it wouldn't fall very quickly.