Without Egypt, Israel will be left with no friends in Mideast
Without Egypt's Mubarak and with relations with Turkey in shambles, Israel will be forced to court new potential allies.
By Aluf BennThe fading power of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak's government leaves Israel in a state of strategic distress. Without Mubarak, Israel is left with almost no friends in the Middle East; last year, Israel saw its alliance with Turkey collapse.
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An anti-government protester ripping a poster of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak in Cairo, January 26, 2011. |
| Photo by: AP |
From now on, it will be hard for Israel to trust an Egyptian government torn apart by internal strife. Israel's increasing isolation in the region, coupled with a weakening United States, will force the government to court new potential allies.
Israel's foreign policy has depended on regional alliances which have provided the country with strategic depth since the 1950s. The country's first partner was France, which at the time ruled over northern Africa and provided Israel with advanced weaponry and nuclear capabilities.
After Israel's war against Egypt in 1956, David Ben-Gurion attempted to establish alliances with non-Arab countries in the region, including Iran, Turkey and Ethiopia. The Shah of Iran became a significant ally of Israel, supplying the country with oil and money from weapons purchases. The countries' militaries and intelligence agencies worked on joint operations against Egyptian President Gamal Abdel Nasser's rule, which was seen as the main threat against Israel and pro-Western Arab governments.
Israel's next alliances were forged with Jordan's King Hussein and Morocco's King Hassan. These ties were operated in secret, as well as ties with leaders in Lebanon's Christian community. The late 1970s saw the fall of the Shah of Iran, with an anti-Israel Islamic republic created in his stead.
Around the same time, Egypt and Israel broke their cycle of conflict by signing a peace agreement. Egypt positioned itself on the side of Saudi Arabia, as head of the pro-American camp.
Mubarak inherited the peace agreement after President Anwar Sadat's assassination. Mubarak was cold in his public relations with Israel, refusing to visit the country except for Yitzhak Rabin's funeral, which decelerated normalization between the countries.
Relations between the Israel Defense Forces and the Egyptian army were conducted on a low level, with no joint exercises. Egyptian public opinion was openly hostile towards Israel and anti-Semitic terminology was common. Civil relations between the countries were carried out by a handful of government workers and businessmen.
Despite all of this, the "cold peace" with Egypt was the most important strategic alliance Israel had in the Middle East. The security provided by the alliance gave Israel the chance to concentrate its forces on the northern front and around the settlements. Starting in 1985, peace with Egypt allowed for Israel to cut its defense budget, which greatly benefited the economy.
Mubarak became president while Israel was governed by Menachim Begin, and has worked with eight different Israeli leaders since then. He had close relations with Yitzhak Rabin and Benjamin Netanyahu. In the last two years, despite a stagnation in peace talks between Israel and the Palestinians and worsening relations between Netanyahu and the Arab world, Mubarak has hosted the prime minister both in Cairo and in Sharm el-Sheikh.
The friendship between Mubarak and Netanyahu is based on a mutual fear over Iran's strengthening and the rising power of Islamists, as well as over the weakening and distancing of the U.S. government with Barack Obama at its head.
Now, with Mubarak struggling over the survival of his government, Israel is left with two strategic allies in the region: Jordan and the Palestinian Authority. These two allies promise to strengthen Israel's Eastern battlefront and are also working to stop terror attacks and slow down Hamas.
But Israel's relationship with these two allies is complicated. Joint security exercises are modest and the relationship between the leaders is poor. Jordan's King Abdullah refuses to meet Netanyahu, and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas is waging a diplomatic struggle against Israel's right-wing government. It's hard to tell how Jordan and the PA could fill the role that Egypt has played for Israel.
In this situation, Israel will be forced to seek out new allies. The natural candidates include Syria, which is striving to exploit Egypt's weakness to claim a place among the key nations in the region.
The images from Cairo and Tunisia surely send chills down the backs of Syrian President Bashar Assad and his cronies, despite the achievement they achieved with the new Hezbollah-backed Lebanon government. As long as the Arab world is flooded with waves of angry anti-government protests, Assad and Netanyahu will be left to safeguard the old order of the Middle East.
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The entire world, including America, opposes Israel's settlement enterprise. The idea of "making new friends" while pursuing this policy is difficult to imagine.
Iran and Israel should become allies, of any country in the history of the world, the Iranians have been the best to the Jews. Cyrus the Great freed Jews from Babylonian Captivity. There are 25,000 Jews in Iran, they have been there since Babylon and Rome fell. Esther's and Daniel's Tombs, in Hamadan and Shusha. Shushan Purim, etc. Long history between Iranians and Jews, they should restore that friendship.
bacause from the looks of it Israel will have to use it pretty soon...
What do you think Netanyahu has been teaching Israelis for two years? The belief is that the entire world is an enemy of Israel. More than that, the world hates Israel, wishes to destroy Israel. No doubt there are many Israelis who do not share the national delusion, but they don't matter.
Egypt will continue to be at peace with Israel... Not even the Muslim Brotherhood would dare taking on the army...
This is precisely why we must trust our strength, have secure borders, presence in the Jordan Valley, etc. No peace agreement can fully guarantee us anything, only defensible borders and meaningful military edge.The piece of paper we sign with Abbas might not be worth a thing as soon as the he is thrown out by Hamas, Hizbullah, or another Iranian proxy. This is the neighborhood we live in.
It is amasing that Haaretz does not understand the dynamics of the ME. CNN reported that the Muslim Brotherhood was controlling the crowds in Cairo. The US and Israel are setting the stage to respond to whatever happens in Egypt.
Hopefully you'll finally realize that and the Right Wing of America aren't your friends either. Invading Iraq changed our interests in the Middle East.. Pushing the Palestinian elections was bad for you. Not trying to stop the last invasion of Lebanon turned out to be very bad for you and Lebanon and us and the ongoing support of the settlers from Right Wing Americans is bad for you. Israel cannot to survive as an occupying power forever and the tide has really turned in international opinion. Now is the time to go all out for a peace deal.
Israel doesn't have friends, it has only accomplices.
Meretz, Avodah and Kadimah will disappear from Knesset. Feiglin will take over Likud
The Palestinian Authority is Israel's strategic ally?!!!!!!!!!!!
Glad to see that some in Israel are waking up. However, the Palestine Authority's authority is paper thin. Why not ally instead with the Palestinian people? All you have to do is open Gaza's border, tear down the checkpoints and Wall, treat Palestinians as equals and give them the vote.
I just hope giving up Sinai does not turn into a huge mistake.
You've got good old Tony Blair to keep you company
What about Greece? I thought Greece had indicated their alliance with Israel in the region some time ago.
Israel will be left with no friends, and that's just the way the cookie crumbles
"From now on, it will be hard for Israel to trust an Egyptian government torn apart by internal strife" Egyptian government??? It was a totalitarian regime spanning 3 decades for gods sake. Good for them may the Arabs topple all of their despots. In the long run it will be good for Israel. All people enjoy freedom and and this internal struggle will distract attention from Israel and will turn the populous upon their leaders. Destabilizing at first, but if Israel can seize the day it can mean a true long lasting peace at last, for the Arabs will be busing themselves forming a new democratic government. I know these Arab kings and despots kept stability in the region, but at what price? by subjugating the populous it only served to bottle up more rage towards the government and Israel by proxy. If Israel supports Independence now, Israel can have a huge bargaining chip latter....play your cards smart Israel, and your security will be long-lasting.
Lieberman and the Christian Zionists are enough. Right?
The concerns of Aluf Benn (Israel's safety) by maintaining minimum relationships with authoritarian leaders are directly connected to Israel's shortsighted and paranoid foreign and domestic policies. The majority of Egyptian citizens are under 30 yrs/ old without employment. This and the resulting poverty are what threatens Israel - not losing an authoritarian leader who uses secret police to torture and roundup people striving for democracy. Instead of waging conflict resolution and moving psychologically FORWARD after the Holocaust, Israel continued to defy all peace negotiations with one excuse after another. Real conflict resolution was never built with the speed of how the settlements were built. The prevailing attitude of "they want to kill us, " was encouraged, especially by the religious and exclusive undemocratic theology and men guided by their testosterone instead of their intelligence and wisdom.
Israel let in many thousands of Jews kicked from Egypt while Egypt keeps its Gaza border shut tight against their fellow Arabs to this day. Are we surprised?
The American and Israeli policies significantly contributed to the discontent of the Arab populations. Israel will have to make peace with the people not the dictators.
He will have to move far away from Israel. BUT ... It is very likely that Mubarak will be gone before February is over, which will cause ALL of the countries bordering Israel, including Syria and Jordan to become even more anti-Israel. The Author is wrong, while the Syrian dictator may indeed worry about his future, he will NOT see becoming closer to Israel as a way to ensure his future health. Instead he will view confronting Israel and the US as a way to stabilize his power. Israel is about to become the whipping boy for the entire world but the US and the US is just going to quietly back away from Israel. Israel has run out of options. There is no country on earth it can turn to. Israel's future looks dimmer and dimmer.
Your case is not realistic. The Moderate Arab States, including some of the Oil States, have a "working" relation with Israel. They want to keep themselves in power as does the West. The presence of US Troops in the area is the "back stop."
Most Christians and Muslims in the Middle-East and the Islamic world in general, were yearning to pray one day where their parents and ancestors once prayed. The Church of Jerusalem and the Aqsa Mosque. They just caught a glimpse of both.
Another great article from the best journalists in the world,eye opener to live and let live.
While I have sympathy for those ordinary Israelis who just want to make a fair peace and get on with their lives, I have no sympathy whatsoever for for Bibi's bunch of ministerial idiots who have wilfully thrown away every chance of peace and alienated just about everybody in the world. They deserve everything they get and I hope it's bad, really bad for them. Benn's an idiot too iif he thinks Bibi's losers can pull off some secret alliance with Syria. Assad ain't smiling for the camera with Bibi unless he gets back the whole Golan. Israel should have bought peace when the price was low. The price is rising all the time now, and inevitably Bibi's losers are doing a big fat zero. Looks like a fun 2011 for Israel.
If Israel is loosing their friend Mubarak, the dictator of Egypt, it is time to make peace with the Palestinians. Israel will no longer be able to control the Gaza prison without egyptian aid. The complete isolation of Israel can only be interrupted, if they make peace with the Palestinians, treat their arab citizens correctly and stop to threaten Iran with war. USA and EU will stop their excessive support of Israel, if Israel don´t stop stealing land, destroying houses and imprison the indigenioues population and refuse to make peace.
I went to visit Egypt 3 days ago. In a restaurant I asked the waiter why Egyptians do not come and visit us in Israel. His answer came immediately; We hate you Aluf be kaka, go and learn...
Israel should have befriended the good guys we all love, Russia, China, Iran, Somalia, Sri Lanka, Nigeria, Sudan, Pakistan, Yemen, Burma, Afghanistan, Iraq ... all the countries known for their Human Rights efforts and Love and Kindness for all. Today the Americans are still killing them in Afghanistan but you won't read about it. You won't read about Russian and Chinese massacres and Human Rights violations because it doesn't serve the powers that be to incriminate the big guys. No, it's always better stoking the fires of Racism and if you think Antisemitism is on the up , try taking a hard look at Islamophobia. Naw...why should you??
Egypt was never Israel's ally. A state of non-belligerency is one thing, but calling it an alliance is a bad joke. Similarly, Israel has no alliance with the PA, but rather a tense relationship that has its moments of common interests and cooperation. On the other hand, Israel's relations with America is a real alliance.
Did my country really think that making friends with one dictator and one king gave us 'allies' forever? That we could could then relax forever and pursue an idiotic, arrogant, illegal settlements policy forever and no one would mind? Can we really be so stupid? The wakeup call had to come eventually and here it is. If we want to have allies, let alone friends, we have to start behaving like a good neighbour, not a fanatical bully.
One reason why Israel has not been toppled by inside revolution is because it is, well, it's hard to believe, but the only functional true DEMOCRACY in the middle east. Its Arabs may have mass protest, but they're too afraid to "REVOLUTIONIZE" Israel because Israel provide more opportunities to their Arabs than the Arab nations do.
If Israel was not "toppled" by the Intifadas it is only because its ruthless repression of those contesting its power.
It is good for Israel to have Greece now
You think the best potential ally for Israel is Syria, a country Israel is at war with and working with Hizbullah in Lebanon, Israel's most dangerous adjacent threat? You think there's any chance in hell Syria would risk improving relations with Israel at a time when such a move could further anger the Arab street?
Didn't Israel want to bring democracy to the middle east? Why would a democratic arab country be a problem for Israel? Maybe there will be peace. If israel is afraid of a hamas or Iran regime- can't Israel defend herself, or is she planning to give up more land instead to secure her security? Maybe Israel should have demanded democracy in the Arab world before she even gave up any land for peace , because democracy will be the only true test of peace. Israel made some deals with devils , will there be hell to pay?
"No friends", Who said so ? e.g. A new star is rising in South Sudan. They'll be great friends of Israel. And what about Micronesia ? And don't forget the still mighty USA. Besides millions,& millions of people all around the world support Israel,some openly,but mostly quietly without making newspaper noises,which is of transient value.
The trouble is millions and millions more do not and regard Israel's brutal occupation and colonisation of Palestine with absolute abhorrance. You must realise this surely?
Who says Egypt is a friendly country to any nation, Mubarak is like a public telephone, you insert the coin to speak, no coin no speak. American Govt. had been pleasing him in the pretext of "A KNOWN DEVIL IS BETTER THAN UNKNOWN", now soon they would experience the unknown who would be far better than the present regime.
Mubarak isn't a friend of Israel but he has always been willing to be bribed by Uncle Sam.
If Israel is loosing their friend Mubarak, the dictator of Egypt, it is time to make peace with the Palestinians. Israel will no longer be able to control the Gaza prison without egyptian aid. The complete isolation of Israel can only be interrupted, if they make peace with the Palestinians, treat their arab citizens correctly and stop to threaten Iran with war. USA and EU will stop their excessive support of Israel, if Israel don´t stop stealing land, destroying houses and imprison the indigenioues population and refuse to make peace.
"USA and EU will stop their excessive support of Israel"... The USA is clearly prepared forfeit everything for the sake of Israel. The American people love Israel too much. Their policy won't change.
it has only itself to blame. its reluctance to give in to pa's demand, and propositions. its intransigence, its lack of vision, its selfishness, and its pleasing the settlers and their supporters.
By the looks of it, Greece & Cyprus r the only countries to be relied on
Interesting and uncertain times. A democratic Egypt is good news for Israel, but as for know we don´t know how the army or the moslim brotherhood will act. Our leaders will now have to be as astute and strong and creative as our forefathers were in the period from Herzl leading up to 1948.
The Egyptian people will now have the opportunity to vote against leaders who cow tow to the US and vote for leaders who want to see justice finally acheived for the Palestinians and other people in the region who are oppressed by US/Western backed dictators.
Maybe now Israel can consider the multiple peace agreements offered by various Arab parties? Or will our dysfunctional government use this as an excuse to expand settlement and continue to anger the world.... Some strategic depth...
if egypt cancells its peace accord with iSrael... then Israel was in the right not to act on the arab proposals...
You don't need to be a Gaon to know what "Aluf" Benn tells us,he repeats the repeats of repeats,not to mention in the most negative possible way.Must be very exciting to live in this negative world of his.
My guess is that the government knew this would l happen, sooner rather than later....just another day in the life an isolated country....
Egypt may turn around cards, and for the first time create a velvet revolution out of the ashes of the violence of the first day. Where are the Iranian people, who should start the second act of their velvet revolution out of solidarity with Egypt?
and the Airport in Charm-A-(Corrupt) Sheik will not see BB's Friend's Aircraft...