Will Israel really attack Iran within a year?
After interviewing dozens of Israeli, American and Arab officials, Jeffrey Goldberg of the Atlantic Magazine concludes Israel may not even ask for a U.S. 'green light' to attack Iran nuclear sites.
By Natasha Mozgovaya Tags: Iran Iran nuclear Barack Obama Israel USIsrael might attack Iranian nuclear sites within a year, if Iran stays the current course and the U.S. administration doesn't succeed in persuading Israel's leadership that U.S. President Barack Obama is ready to stop Iran by force if necessary, so argues Jeffrey Goldberg in Atlantic magazine's September cover story, obtained by Haaretz ahead of publication.
 |
A nuclear reactor in Bushehr, Iran. |
| Photo by: Bloomberg |
Based on dozens of interviews the Atlantic correspondent conducted in recent months with Israeli, American and Arab officials, Goldberg came to the conclusion that the likelihood of an Israeli strike has crossed the 50 percent mark. And Israel might not even ask for the famous "green light" from the U.S. - or even give couple of false pre-attack alerts, so that Washington won't try to stop the unilateral operation.
"…one day next spring, the Israeli national-security adviser, Uzi Arad, and the Israeli defense minister, Ehud Barak, will simultaneously telephone their counterparts at the White House and the Pentagon, to inform them that their prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, has just ordered roughly one hundred F-15Es, F-16Is, F-16Cs, and other aircraft of the Israeli air force to fly east toward Iran - possibly by crossing Saudi Arabia, possibly by threading the border between Syria and Turkey, and possibly by traveling directly through Iraq's airspace, though it is crowded with American aircraft…," Goldberg paints a possible scenario.
The repercussions of such a strike, which could include the bombing of the Iranian facilities in Natanz, Qom, Esfahan, and maybe even the Russian-built reactor in Bushehr, are less than clear, despite the endless discussions and several simulations. American experts speculate that attacking Iran's nuclear facilities will only slightly delay the nuclear program, whereas some Israelis, according to Goldberg, are a bit more optimistic, in light of the successful Israeli operations against Iraqi and Syrian reactors in the past.
The results might be dire: It's likely that the Israeli air force won't have much time to waste in Iran, as Hezbollah will probably retaliate against Israel in the North and the fighter jets will be needed there. The unilateral operation might throw relations between Jerusalem and Washington into an unprecedented crisis, and might even unleash full-scale regional war with possible economic repercussions for the whole world, not to mention the cost of human lives.
The timetable in this issue is an evasive one - the red lines were pushed back again and again, and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton told New York Times reporters this week: "Based on my conversations with allies, it's not so much the timing of when or how the Iranians might pursue the nuclear weapons, it's whether they do so. And so whether it would take six months, a year, or five years, it's that deep concern about Iran acquiring nuclear weapons that is the preoccupation of our friends and partners. And we would be pursuing the path we're pursuing regardless of any issue of timing because we think it's got the best potential for changing Iranian behavior."
According to Goldberg, for Israel the red lines are clear. The end of December is Netanyahu's deadline to estimate the success of "non-military methods to stop Iran."
And while Rahm Emanuel, the White House chief of staff, reminded Goldberg that "the expression 'All options are on the table' means that all options are on the table," - the Israeli interviewees repeatedly questioned Obama's resolve to actually do it. Some even asked Goldberg if he thought the American president was actually an anti-Semite, forcing the reporter to explain that Obama is probably "the first Jewish President" – but not necessarily Likud's idea of a Jew.
But the reply he got from one official was: "This is the problem. If he is a J Street Jew, we are in trouble."
Ben Rhodes, a deputy national security adviser, stressed that "This president has shown again and again that when he believes it is necessary to use force to protect American national security interests, he has done so" - but the Israeli government might need stronger assurances.
Israel is trying to convey the message not only through the official channels - Israeli military intelligence chief Major General Amos Yadlin visited Chicago recently to meet with the billionaire Lester Crown, one of Obama’s supporters, and asked to him to convey Israel's concerns to the American President, Goldberg reports.
"If the choice is between allowing Iran to go nuclear, or trying for ourselves what Obama won't try, then we probably have to try,” one senior Israeli official told Goldberg. Basically, the Israeli military officials agreed that it would be tough for Israel to do it alone – but on the other hand, the conclusion is Netanyahu might well risk this operation and alienation of his closest ally if he becomes convinced Iran's nuclear bomb "represents a threat like a Shoah."
Goldberg delves into Netanyahu’s relations with his father – the historical lessons he learned from Ben-Zion Netanyahu – and his eagerness not to disappoint him. He also offers a long list of Iran's verbal hostilities toward Israel to remind his readers that Israel is not personally obsessed with Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.
"I once asked Ali Asghar Soltanieh, a leading Iranian diplomat who is now Iran’s ambassador to the International Atomic Energy Agency, why the leadership of Iran persistently described Israel not as a mere regional malefactor but as a kind of infectious disease. 'Do you disagree?' he asked. 'Do you not see that this is true?'" Goldberg writes.
A recent poll conducted in six Arab countries showed a shift of opinion in favor of the Iranian nuclear weapon – views that the Arab leadership clearly doesn’t share with the street.
For Netanyahu, it's clear the bomb will not only strengthen Iran's proxies, but will undermine Israel’s status as a safe haven for Jews, embolden terrorists all over the word, and make the Arab countries more reluctant to make peace with Israel.
According to Goldberg, all the Arab officials he spoke to didn’t think that the U.S. administration truly understood Iran's ambitions. “The best way to avoid striking Iran is to make Iran think that the U.S. is about to strike Iran. We have to know the president’s intentions on this matter. We are his allies," one Arab minister told Goldberg.
Dennis Ross, special adviser to the U.S. president, told the Atlantic that imposing sanctions on Iran could work, despite Israeli doubts, because the Iranian government already faces public alienation. "They are looking at the costs of trying to maintain control over a disaffected public. They wanted to head off sanctions because they knew that sanctions would be a problem. There is real potential here to affect their calculus. We’re pursuing a path right now that has some potential."
Last week, Obama unexpectedly joined a White House briefing for a small group of senior reporters in Washington, raising questions whether he intended to convey some new message to Iran or hint at some new initiative. The accounts of the meetings were somewhat different, and the final impression was that there still is no answer for the question, what President Obama is ready to do if sanctions fail.
David Sanger, the New York Times reporter, heard from the White House sources that during his latest visit to Washington Netanyahu didn't list Iran as one of his top agenda items "whereas at the previous meetings when he has come here, [Iran] was the number one, two, and three issue," on the agenda, which might indicate that Netanyahu got some clear reassurances from the U.S. administration.
Why Facebook Connect?
Comment on Haaretz.com articles with your Facebook login, and share your thoughts on your own wall.
- Latest
- Most Viewed
- Most Rated
- Open all
Until a decade ago, it would have been a surprise not seeing US do what it believed in when it came to matters of foreign policy. But seems like, the will to initiate a military action is not something which comes very naturally to America any more. Perhaps the guilt of an ill conceived invasion of Iraq in pursuit of weapons of mass destruction, a bogged down operation in Afganistan and ever war ready North Korea might have some role here in America's hesitation but then its certainly more because of a substantial erosion of America's relative military strength versus the world. With its serious commitments already in Iraq and Afganistan, America may perhaps be lacking the extra teeth psychologically and militarily to initiate an yet another action in Iran.
Brilliantly written and oh so true. What all these intelligent prognosticators don't realize is that all countries are armed to the teeth by the same military-industrial complex that Eisenhower warned us about sixty years ago. The more bombs that are dropped, the more missiles that are fired, the more planes that are shot down, the more tanks that are destroyed only mean one thing: Business will be terrific for weapons and armament factories for years to come as countries reload.
Israel is willing to give Obama more time on Iran, but the only way to delay the Iranian building the bomb is via deconstructing the key asset in their asymmetrical warfare doctrine Hizbullah and some units of the LAF in Lebanon. That way Obama can have another 18 to 24 months before Israel decides to take out Iran. Also it will give Obama more chance of success as Iran will be in a vulnerable position. This is why Hassan had to use the LAF to create an incident to commemorate the anniversary of the 2006 war, this is why Iran has taken a more direct roll over Hizbullah since 2006 and why they rushed to Lebanon after the incident, this is why Iran does not want a confrontation in the north which will result in the lose of their strategic asset. Hassan in 2006 by misjudging Israel and what its response was going to be to the abductions for Eldad Regev and Ehud Goldwasser put the development of the nuclear bomb which would have gone live in 2009 back 5 years. When no deal is achieved it is time to put all this silliness aside and complete the task at hand. Meir Dagan said they could have a bomb in 2009 back in 2006 and his was right, the only thing that has delayed the construction was the deconstruction of that key asset in their asymmetrical warfare doctrine Hizbullah/LAF in Lebanon in 2006. When they feel they have sufficient deterrent they will build the bomb, 3 to 6 months. If the 2006 war had not occurred Hizbullah would have between 80,000 to 100,000 rockets facing Israel. We can learn a few things via the Scud/M-600 transfer, one Iran seeks to create a deterrent to allow the continued build up in Lebanon of the Hizbullah arsenal to prevent an Israeli preemptive attack, two they are in the final stages of creating the strategic deterrent required to have the strategic confidence to finally produce a bomb. Thirdly Assad is a wily cat very hard to judge, perhaps the hardest leader in the Mid East to grasp his strategic intent. The transfer of the Scud/M-600 has fulfilled his responsibility to the Ayatollah and the Resistance and placated them without the need for Syria to become directly involved in war and for Assad to risk his regime. http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=176835
According to most military analysts, the Iranian military is at best third rate. Their soldiers are inexperienced in warfare, the military leadership hasn't made anyone forget Omar Bradley or Douglas MacArthur and the Iranian air force is still in desperate need of embargoed spare parts. The IDF would obliterate the Iranian armed forces in an open battlefield confrontation. The problem with a military operation to destroy or setback Iran's nuclear program involves the following - 1 does Israel possess precise intelligence concerning all of the appropriate targets 2 do the IAF and navy possess the proper munitions to destroy heavily reinforced nuclear locations 3 will IAF aircraft maintain the element of surprise If Israel decided to undertake an assault, it better be 99.9% sure that it will succeed.
Natasha Mozgovaya: I think this is a well-written article packed with good research and very informative. Kudos!
I laugh, smile and grind my jaws when I read many of the posts her. Please do not misconstrue my perespective here since I am a firm believer that M Ahmadi Nejad s the worst thing that ever happened to Iran, and much worse than many ruthless mullahs. What everyone here needs to understand is, we the great nation of the United States, will not allow anyone to destroy Iran, whom we believe that it is a matter of time before our former Persian comes back to us in the United States. It is a matter of time before the regime changes there, and therefore, no one is allowed to disrupt the flow of oi we need from the oil sheikhdoms in the Persian Gulf.
If you have the slightest notion that the United States propoganda play in the East Asian region is going to move China from defending Israel, you are what is commonly known as "wrong". The US government will attempt to distance itself from the conflict as per the norm and that is cute, but China will not. If anyone has the slightest inkling of thought that the response will be verbal; you are wrong.
The clash of civilizations could keep escalating into more costly wars. Israel could get caught in the middle. How to keep the peace. At the start of Bush's war on terror, a professor of law said ,"If Iraq were not as weak as it obviously is, relative to the U.S., it would be tempted to resort to a preemptive strike against the American forces that do seem to be threatening it." Preemptive strike to perceived threat was Bush's policy. What would prevent IRAN from preemptive strike against us? Article re: that matter in Haaretz. Why are muslim countries supporting Iran's nuclear weapons, as a protection from American invasion; are all muslim countries afraid of that now? I might mention they are really paranoid, esp. Turkey, which is the most paranoid of all being surrounded by enemies on all sides. Clash of civilizations imbued with demonizing the enemy, using inflamatory rhetoric, inciting muslim anger with cartoons; all wars do that to get popular support? Finally, "evil doing is routinely provided by the fearful and uninformed among us who invest would be terrorists with far more power and enduring influence than they are ever likely to have." Paying too much attention to Iran????? And finally, prejudice is the worst evil, because it leads to discimination, sometimes murder, and sometimes genocide. Antisemitism and islamophobia are both prejudice; under some circumstances both Jews and muslims have faced genocide (remember the Holocaust and Bosnia). At some future time, let's hope a more rational people will emerge to make peace.
The American radar that is supposed to protect Israel from missile attack also keeps an eye on the IDF. That Obama is a clever one. He can see you and hear you right in your own home, how could Israel have allowed this to happen is beyond me.
Natasha Mozgovaya is an excellent journalist. She doesn’t waste our time with her own conjecture. As for me... an Israeli decision to strike Tehran will be made at the absolute highest level. No one should misconstrue, that the National Security advisor Uzi Arad is pro-strike and a war advocate. And Labor’s Defense Minister Ehud Barak... is not. Netanyahu, at times has shown himself to be extreme right-of-center and other times a pragmatist. In my mind, there’s no way Bibi would risk his father’s disappointment, by launching an attack that may not completely produce the desired results. And most significantly... throw the Middle East and possibly the region into a catastrophic war.
If Israel think this will be a cake walk for them, well, we will just have to wait and see.
They dont/wont/cant do any dirty work that requires any kind of risk. The only way is get America or some other foolish country to do it. why risk yourself when you can get someone else to??
Thank God, God is on our side.
it is obvious that who will fire the first shot. how ever all it's matters that who will fire the last shot
the days of your judgment are coming .we can proceed to do so with out green light .israel has no choice .but ????
Israel needs to defend itself and the whole region. Iran hangs its homosexual community, which is exactly what they would do to me if i lived there.
The enemies of Israel are far better armed today than during all the wars that they themselves started against the Jewish State - and lost. And isn't Israel any better than back then? I believe it will not be easy to attack Iran, but Israel will not think twice to avoid a second Holocaust and I believe that this war will bring peace faster than by diplomatic means.
To think only of an attack which will damage Iran's nuclear capabilities, and not think seriously about what will happen afterwards, is not a service to Israel. The US put Saddam Hussein's government out of business in a few weeks, but then what happened?
Forget sanctions, they won't stop the mullahs. They are motivated by the same antisemitic madness which caused the Nazis to divert valuable resources to murdering Europe's Jews, even as Germany was being invaded. The Iranian bomb would be an existential -- genocidal -- threat to Israel. Israel has to destroy Iran's nuke-making capability, no matter what, using *all means necessary*. We Israelis know we will have to pay a heavy price for this. As for the rest of the world... too bad. They had their chance.
and you think they just gonna stand there and watch you if thats what your thinking your wrong and its not just gonna be isreal and iran its the whole mid east and isreal gonna have to fight on more than one front and you talk about about war world 3 now and i donut think the rest of the world gonna let isreal do that and this time its not gonna be isreal way like always and dont forget that isreal has nuke so there is nothing wrong with the rest country's of the mild east to have it too what make you think that Egypt donut have nuke too isreal need to stop worrying about what other people have and you need to start thinking about peace a true peace and donut think about just occupation
Attackinig Iran will not be easy but the IDF will be prepared. There may be some unintended consequences, but all of the Arab leaders, except Syria, will cheer an Israeli attack....and so will the oppressed people of Iran.
you rely think Turky will cheer and who exactly controls those 'NATO" nukes in TURKY?
There is one thing and one thing only preventing peace between Israel and the Palestinians and Israel and Syria and that is the anti semitic third reich like country of Iran. Unless and until Iran is defanged there will never be peace in the Middle East, no matter how many concessions Israel makes. The only concession Iran wants is Israel's surrender. The world will be a far safer and better place once Iran's mullahs and military are dealt a very severe and punishing blow.
What exactly does the occupation of another people/land have to do with Iran. This is just one of many methods of deflection the gov of Israel employs. Iran uses the occupation as an excuse for hostilities. Stop the oppression of the Pals, take away the only reason Iran claims to hate the gov of Israel, then see what will happen. By your logic, Israel came into exsistence and begin to occupy Palestine to counter act the Iranian threat. You sound absolutely ridicoulous.
If you had a clue or fact, you'd know that dictatorships MANUFACTURE excuses. Israel could treat the pal arabs like gold and it would make NO difference. Turn off counterpunch and grow up - hopefully get some facts as well.
As long as Iran continues to sponsor Hiz and Hamas there will be no peace, because both their stated goals are the ethnic cleansing/genocide of Jews in Israel. There's no point in "being nice" to the Palestinians in order to prove that Hamas and Hiz and Iran are the monsters they are. Perhaps Mr. Confused, you're confused? For sure you are confusing appeasement with survival.
You are so unapologetically supportive of oppression that you failed to see waht i was saying, or maybe i wasnt clear enough. Take away the only excuse the evil regime in Iran has for it's transgressions against Israel, then no other excuse will matter. Iran and the Arab/Muslim world will have no choice, when a just peace agreement is reached, to make peace. Then no one can argue when Israel defends herself. It's about removing all the excuses to expose uncompromising, corrupt, oppressive regimes.
It will only further empower Ahmadinejad and his Mullah government. The best way to avoid an Iranian threat? End the occupation of the West Bank, give the Palestinians statehood within reasonable terms, and let the Iranian public do away with their dictator. Hitting them with missiles will unite the people under his policy of hatred, which is exactly what he wants -- a pre-emptive, unilateral strike against Iran will only make that government stronger.
Iran is unlikely to make nukes in Iran anytime soon but could have N. Korea made then in exchange for fuel rods, oil and cash. Iran could currently build 12 to 18 uranium nukes but US claiming 2 or 3 based on 1945 design which used 2.5 critical masses to be safe since it was untested. Bombing is NOT
I don't see how it's possible for Iran and Israel to actually fight a land battle. They share no common border. Which country in between Iran and Israel would allow them to send troops through and do battle?
You make a fair point, but Israel can equally say they fought off three armies at the same time and defeated them in less than a week. But what you wont hear is that the Israeli army was supported and equipped by the amercians who had better tech. And at one point America almost directly engaged Syria thats why Syria had to back off. But Iran on the other hand has its own military industry and is a huge country and very capable. If Hezbollah who are like a fly on an elephant if likend to Iran can do this to Israel than I dont want to find out what Iran could do. That only means one thing? Israel plans to use nuclear weapons AGAINST IRAN. If this happens.... im speechless because that would be horrible and that is certainly something that could happen given the circumstances. Because you can better your bottom dollar Iran will respond. Then there will be NO OPTION NO IRAN AND NO ISRAEL either Why people cant see this is beyond me, why cant we just accept each other and live in peace. We in the UK certainly want nothing to do with this and I hope that our government stays out of it. This is shear madness at the highest level. Why Doesnt Israel see that if Iran disappears tommorow the people of Palestine will still be there and their condition will not be ignored. We will boycott Israeli products and Israel in its totality. It will never be recognised if it still exists by then that is. What the people at the top need to understand is that if you persist wiith these policies you will destroy yourselves. Their is a reason for you being where you are because sheep will always need a shepard. But what a shepard must understand is that the sheep doesnt need the shepard to live. It learns to live as it breaths and G-d gives it that ability. People can to live without the government but the government cannot live without the people. And that is what the people in power dont seem to understand is that they can destroy themsleves and take everything around us with them if they want. But in the end we the people of the world will find away of living our lives. So Mr Netanyahu and Mr Obama and your backers and all those people who are threatening to attack IRAN just for a moment PLEASE take a deep breath....and THINK and please find a way to make PEACE and soon.
Six days is all that needs to be said. Do some research son.
Does anyone pay attention to history at all? History shows us the six day war did not involve Iran. History shows us that every single country with nukes, except Israel, developed them because it was being threatened by a country with nukes (and Israel was being threatened even without the nukes, so the rule still holds). History shows that every single time a foreign country has violently interfered in Iran, the result has been greater control by hardline Islamists. Every. Single. Time. History shows us the six day war had the same effect in the participating Arab countries – less secularism, rise of Islamist policies. History shows that armies, invasions and military occupations breed terrorism. Is anyone, anyone at all, paying attention to these simple and easily observed facts? So, if anyone wants Israel to attack Iran then they also want Iran to develop a nuclear weapon and you want Iran more tightly under control of hardline Islamists. It’s just that simple – one cannot call for an invasion that has only one possible result and pretend one is calling for anything else, anything less than a nuclear armed, legitimately enraged Iranian population united under military Islamist rule that will – entirely correctly! – savage the aggressor that just killed a bunch of innocent people for a completely false pretence with no possibility of success.
goading Israel. You want to hit, hit.Don't play the brinkmanship once too often.Someone might get the wrong idea & start something foolish. Israel should act only as a last resort. And then: God have mercy on us. ! Allah u Rachamu !... Having said all the above,is there a possibility,even 1 in a 1000 that Iran has no intention of building the Bomb. The reasoning. Even if Israel is severely damaged in the initial blow, The ME & the world at large has come to know Israel's resolve,That she will inflict such a blow that neither,Iran,Syria,Lebanon/Hezbollah & Hamas will at any time in the future be able to wake up.Their Lands will have become smoldering ruins. Do you believe that the Iranians or the Arab countries don't know that ?
what do you think the world will do if you nuke iran, syria and lebanon? jump up and down i\with joy?, you see, your fault is this, you listen to politcians of those countries in support of israel, but the people are a different story, they will exact revenge on jews, think about it, really hard.
iran will wait until it has several bombs. it will never attack before it does. iran will also continue with its ballistic missile development/buildup. once iran has several bombs, the game for israel will be up. iran is not led by rational people. indeed, the only reasonable prediction about iran is the irrationality of the leadership. regards, cipora
In reading this article, I was reminded of all the stereotypes evident in how Israel portrays when dealing with regional nations. Here are some points that I hope you can take to heart: Israel must find a way to live peacefully with its Arab neighbors as well as regional nations. It is not a good excuse for Israelis to say that Arabs refuse to make peace. Remember that Israel is more advanced in its democracy, has stronger economic power than its neighbors, its population is more literate and is the only nuclear armed country of the region. This means that failure to make peace, is a failure of Israel and not the Arabs. It is often quite obvious from reading media reports coming out of Israel that the Jews there think the whole area (not just the \ pre 1967 Israel) is a lost property of Israel, entitling Jews to fight to regain control, citing biblical passages. As true as I believe the Torah is in this regard when it was written, it no longer applies. Take for example, the fact that many of the Jews of the old are today's Arabs (I knew Jews refuse to believe this, but just recall the fact that the closest language in this world to Hebrew is Arabic meaning that culturally speaking, Arabs are the closest thing to today's Jews). A lot of other Jews were either forced to convert to other religions or did so of their own accord. The other side of this equation is that if we were to base any one country or people to its historical rights to a certain region, then Iran would have to take back many of the previous Soviet Republics and even parts of Russia, Iraq, etc as they use to belong in the Persian empire. The Turks would claim the rest, the Italians would want the whole Europe back and the British are to come back and rule Israel and Palestine. Wake up! No body ever won anything with guns and bullets. The victory on the back of bloodshed and guns is perceived and not real, it certainly will not last long! If it did, Israel should be living in peace and harmony with its neighbors. Do not go looking for a fight for if you did, you had indeed strayed far from your religion. Thou Shalt Not Kill...
You talk as though you believe the Arabs are little children and that Israel needs to make special concessions to them. Get freakin' real. It is not Israel's fault that the Arabs are illiterate, their economies, other than oil, are non-existant and that they have no democratic governments. The making of peace happens two ways. The first is that both sides have to sincerely desire peace as in Israel and Egypt. The Arabs do not desire peace and quite frequently say so. The second way that peace is achieved is when an army completely annihilates its enemy.
During the Eid al Fitr celebration, Israel will surprise the world with a massive attack against many Iranian targets all over the vast space of taht country. Most of the Iranian military will be having a great meal with their families, so does many countries in that part of the world. Israel will be capable to destroy some targets, however the majority will remain intact due to Iranian self defenses. This attack will unleash Hizbullah with all what it has in capabilities. Israel will be stunned by the ferocity of the counterattack. Syria will bark but not bite, Turkey will issue warning to Israel to stop its attack on friendly countries but nothing else immediate. The U.N. 's Ban KI-moon will call for a U.N. S.C. Meeting to help stop the undeclared War that no one could stop. The U.S. having been told few minutes before the bombs fall on Iran will scramble to issue supportive statement to Israel. Well, WWIII have started. Iran will attempt to close the straight of Hormuz, will lay all kind of floating mines that will make passage very risky. Oil prices will hit the $ 350 mark, the dollar will collapse,same with stock markets world-wide. 55 muslim countries will call for an Islamic conference in Indonisia and call for the cessation of hostilities immediately. Iran will refuse calling instead all their resrves and dusting all their ballistic missles. To be continued.
I don't get the point. If the us doesnt want Israel to attack iran by not asking the us for their ok, i cant imagine it will happen. if you read the article, his theorie sounds like iran is 50 miles away from israel, so it takes israel 2 minutes to reach iran,and the us cant interrupt?! if the us is seriously considering an attack on iran, then i have a really hard time to imagine what could be either their short- and also their long-term plan in the whole middle east. So i believe Israels military-airports are constantly on the us realtime- radar. If the jets will start there its still time to convince the israelis to return. If the israelis will not return, the us will have to believe that the israeli government doesnt care about possibly high number of american deaths, and decide to confront them on the iraqi sky. If the whole operation could be done by isreali submarines in a very short time, i would believe that they might do it soon or late. But not with 100 warplanes flying from israel to iran without us- support.
As Israel has a technological army considered to be one of the best in the world and it's air force is also one of the very best. The 'almighty' Iranian meat army is rather poor and ill-equipped with most of their air crafts falling out of the sky due to technical difficulties. Israel has crushed Armies 6 times it's size while being invaded from opposite fronts in several wars, each time reaching their capitals with only the UN to stop them. Iran has only one advantage and that is the distance between us with their missile capacity. It seems that in the last 60 years Israel's enemies have produced a very interesting phenomenon where their brains attempts to protect them with denial, cutting them from reality in order to defend their ego and try to portray Israel as weak and that there were 'special circumstances' every time. Hamas received a great blow and now shivers every time a rocket gets out of Gaza once a month(instead of 30 times a week), Hezbollah's commanders are hiding in bunkers for over 4 years now and the northern border has never been so quiet before. The only reason both of these organizations aren't wiped but only heavily traumatized and bleeding like the standard Arab armies were (7 times) is because they fought gorilla tactics while hiding behind civilians. Indeed close to how the Vietnamese gorilla fighters fought the American army. Though Hezbollah and Hamas were cynically using civilians as shields, were still able to traumatize them so they wont threaten our families. If Iran wont give up their dreams of a nuclear bomb and Islamic supremacy, they'll suffer a great blow, both by Israel and by the rest of the civilized world. I hope in the future you'll be able to see beyond the wall of denial your brain has created to shield you.
Israel would be insane to risk starting a war without first destroying the ability of Hizbollah and Hamas to launch rockets at Israel. It was Israel's failure to crush Hisbollah in 2006 that caused the sudden shift by Bush from supporting to opposing an Israeli attack upon Iran.
overlooks the fact that the nuclear program is popular across the Iranian political and social spectrum (including Mousavi supporters). Would sanctions against the Israeli government over the size of the Israeli military encourage much of an upwelling of anti-government sentiment in Israel?
once again isreal shows determination and capablity to launch a devastating militry attack.attackIDF god is on your side
Israel is more then capable of hitting Iran with or without US assistance. If Iran continues to purse a bomb ( and it will), Israel will have no choice but to hit Iran. Similar to Iraq and Syria, Iran will be left with little to do.
Just as Iran can **hit** Israel. But that isn't the point, is it? There is simply no point **hitting** Iran if that blow doesn't achieve what you want it to achieve. The question is: Can Netanyahu take out Iran's nuclear project by unleashing the IDF? The answer is almost certainly going to be "No". He simply does not have enough planes.
M.A.D
in case of an attack israel can only loose - definetly the long term peace with all neighbors and the response might be surprising all. instead of such brainless actions israel shall faster seek for peace with their neighbors.
Your an Idiot
Has everyone forgotten that the USA has a X-Band radar in Israel. The Americans will know from the moment the aircraft are taxiing on the runway. Israel can no longer do anything without the USA knowing. Iran has placed a radars in Lebanon as well they would also know when the aircraft are airborne.
All the claims that America will collapse and Israel fall prey to a billion Hezbollah rockets are just daft. The Arabs of the Middle East do not like Iran; Iran is a Persian country, not Arab. They don't speak the same language and they follow a different strand of the same religion, something they've killed each other over for since the shia / sunni split occured.
JUST DO IT
Honestly they never say the judaism is bad. Their enmity with IOsrael comes from the fact that they have problem with US and Israel represents US in the region. I directly have heard many times from Iranian Official that Israel is an American state in the middle east to protect US oil resources. Try to see white white and blacl black, else you would not solve your problem. Attacking to Iraq has not insreased wetern security but has decreased.
Why have they allowed a Holocaust Denial Cartoon website to exist. Have you seen the images of the little Jews with their hats and their beards? When you have come back and tell us again that Antisemitism doesn't exist in Iran. BTW How many Jews have left there?
Why did you say there are?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Persian_Jews
There are approx 25,000 Jews in Iran, according to wiki..
Sean, A little more reading and a little less writing.
Israel and Iran are both run by just some brainless cowards!