MESS Report / No real threat of war despite Hezbollah's threats
There should be no confusion between the threat and the exercise that is carried out every year in May, and a threat of immediate war in the north.
By Amos HarelFor a country that at any given moment is being targeted by tens of thousands of missiles and rockets covering most of its territory, it seems there is no other way than to drill.
“Turning Point 4,” the national home front exercise that is to begin this morning and last all week, involves a certain amount of inconveniencing of civilians. Traffic jams are expected, especially on Wednesday morning when a siren will sound throughout the country, calling on everyone to take cover in shelters and other secure places. Nonetheless, it is advisable for anyone complaining to remember less-pleasant events, like the 4,200 rockets that struck northern Israel less than four years ago.
Our routines will be disrupted for a moment, and the public’s level of concern will rise, but these are minor worries compared to the main issue. The threat to Israel’s home front in recent years has been tangible and substantive.
When compared to the summer of 2006, Hezbollah’s rockets today are capable of striking central Israel and further south. Hamas, too, has acquired rockets that have ranges longer than 50 kilometers.
Even more important is the maturing of the enemy’s strategic insight. Hamas and Hezbollah, and even Syria and Iran, no longer seek Israel’s destruction or to occupy its territory. They are aiming for a war of attrition against Israel’s ability to resist.
As the central means for achieving this goal, they will target the home front with a massive bombardment, which they consider an appropriate way to balance Israel’s superiority in the air. Recent reports in the Arab media noted that Hezbollah acquired M-600 rockets, which are believed to be accurate enough to strike sensitive military and strategic installations. A response to all this requires preparation and drilling.
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A UN patrol in southern Lebanon, where Hezbollah clashed with Israel in 2006 |
| Photo by: (Archive) |
There should be no confusion between the threat and the exercise that is carried out every year in May, and a threat of immediate war in the north. The threat of war, which came up in January and March this year, actually appears to have diminished in recent weeks. The suspicions of Syria and Hezbollah about Israel’s intentions remain high, but neither side considers the other as having a real interest in a confrontation.
A war in the north could begin as a result of international pressure to put an end to the Iranian nuclear program, or because of a belated Hezbollah attempt to avenge the assassination of its master terrorist, Imad Mughniyeh.
At the moment, and taking into account that intelligence’s ability to predict the enemy’s plans is inherently limited, there does not appear to be a particularly high risk of war, despite Hezbollah’s recent threats.
Home Front Command has achieved great progress since the war in Lebanon. Intensive training has dealt with many of the problems of the Second Lebanon War. “Turning Point 4” should enable additional protective measures. But Israel’s preparations for the next war, which may certainly break out in the near future, still have troubling weaknesses. There are question marks over the Israel Defense Forces’ plans against massive missile barrages from Lebanon and perhaps Syria. Will this be enough to lift the threat on the home front?
Another critical gap is the lack of sufficient missile interception systems. Late last week, thanks to the endless generosity of the United States, Israel was promised $205 million to pay for the manufacturing of more Iron Dome missile defense batteries.
But a multilayered solution for intercepting missiles is not in the bag; far from it. We need more years to completely deploy the systems. This is the sort of gap that no exercise, however successful, can sufficiently cover.
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they have no motivation to lay down their arms.China wants to rule the world,as does Russia and Islam through their military/industrial proxy. Thank G-d, Israel wins with truth and justice.
The only threats Hezbollah's made in quite awhile are those of retaliation to Israeli aggression. Nothing like a little media fabrication to make an eyecatching headline.
The only reason why Israeli rulers have not waged a new war against Lebanon since 2006 is the damage feared from Hizbullah's rockets. Now they hope to thwart them with the Iron Dome system. Let us hope that they don't get the impression that they can!
a frightened population is easier to control and less likely to question the amount spent per annum on the military compared to say Social Services. Which is the true reason for this exercise. Computer sinulations and desk exercises of where to send search and rescue assets are more helpful than having crews running around from imaginary crater to imaginary crater. Their time would be better spent training to extract people from collapsed buildings and figuring out how certain buildings are going to collapse to reduce the time spent rescuing someone. But then that doesn't scare the local population does it?
i live in israel. I will be participating in this drill tomorrow. It is important for the population to know where the nearest bomb shelter is and how to get there in real time. If you do not see the value in such a drill you are blind my friend. reality of living in israel
All these high minded humanitarians... Where is Gilad Schalit? Why is there not a peep in the international community about his plight? What... when the guy's name Jewish he suppose to be kidnapped??? Is that "I understand your position with regards to Jewish question" round #2?
what happened to their diplomats in Israeli occupied Southern lebanon? Or is that different because they is not Jewish?
Those diplomats were killed by phalangists.
It seems that there will be some incident like 1939's on the Chekoslovakia border, the Maine in Havana harbour, the Pueblo in the Gulf of Tonkin, The Liberty in the Gulf of Suez, the Iranian civilian jet over the Persian Gulf, the South Korean ship just sunk by the USA, the need to reach them a lesson because they understand only force...... How many more times will that be needed, they never understand violence, they understand you just want to kill them. What is going to distract the world attention now? the 50 state flotilla to Gaza?
It looks like Israel is interested in destracting attention from peace.
What threats has Hisbollah been making? We have seen all sorts of unsubstantiated claims by Israel, but no threats from HIsbollah. We see Israel practicing an attack upon Lebanon, but no Hisbollah mobilization. We see a paranoid nation ruled by men determined to start a war at the first chance they have. . . And we see a Lebanon which has no one trying to provoke a war. Anyone who REALLY care for Israel must be concerned that some Israelis want a war which will only benefit a few political extremist parties and harm the nation.
Thank you for opening your eyes
and other statements coming from Hizbullah officials
No, thank you for being so naive. It really serves well the multitude of people who comment on here. That Hesbollah has NOTHING to lose if they start another war, and Israel has EVERYTHING to lose, is beside the point, right? Or is that also mindless pandering? Some people on here are so utterly dimwitted to the security situation here in Israel that it is mindblowing. Hezbollah has been bringing in large-scale weapons for months, Israel holds preparations for if these missiles were to strike. How on earth does anyone with even half a brain not see Hezbollahs goal is to simply mess with Israel? For what other reason does it have to keep going on with threats of what happened in 2006?? What good does Israel have to attack Lebanon? One good reason is all I need, but I'll keep waiting because there are absolutely none.
let see how humane the Jews are?
The article says there is no threat of war but says toward the end "the next war may certainly break out in the near future." Is a war likely or not?
Peace is of course ideal...but with whom? Why is Hezbollah so interested in Israel anyway? Israel left Lebanon years ago so why the continued threat and rhetoric?
is it realistic to think peace is possible with Hezbollah continuing who refuses to acknowledge Israels right to exist?
true, but by virtue of Israel's vast love to steal land- Shiba'a
What about Palestinian right to exist on their homeland? What about Palestinian right to live in freedom? What about Palestinian right to go back to their homes? What about Palestinian right to live in peace? What about Palestinian right to live in a FREE-WALL environment? What about Palestinian right not to suffer War crimes? What about Palestinian right not to see their lands being stolen for settlements building? What about Palestinian children right to go freely to schools? What about Palestinian children right not to get burnt with white phosphorous in Gaza? And many more.... Any consideration? Ahh, by the way, Palestinians are Human beings too, are you aware of that???
tell me where UNIFIL is looking. Why Israel has to run around with news about scuds flowing to Hesbolla. Didn't your guys sign up to keep those out? Or may be you hope those scuds will invite a few Arab kid deaths, so that you can setup fundraiser to support their lost souls and chastise Israel in the next sequel of "Goldstone Opera"? You really think this is acceptable in the framework of international standards?
It is not realistic for us to expect them to acknowledge our right to exist while we ourselves refuse to acknowledge their own right to exist by claiming their land is ours by some divine right. The only way to achieve piece is to end the occupations first, and then over time earn the mutual respect of each others right to exist...not by beating it out of each other.
Israel exists when the Palestinians are allowed to exist in their own country...what's good for you is good for everyone else. That's the way of the world these days. No more special treatment for anyone.
you have THAT land.... in Jordan. The "problem" is you want Israel's land and you can hardly blame them if they don't want to give it to you.
It's not only how many rockets Hizbollah has but its the perception. Sincerity means a lot in these days and I can't see that in this text!
Hisbollah has a deterrent. Israel is far stronger, but will only pursue attacks upon Lebanon for partisan political gain, and thus will not seek to destroy Hisbollah for fear that the cost would be too high. Both sides are normally deterred. This spring Israel's ultra-right wing government has a problem with peace negotiations. This threat of peace can only be destroyed by a war. With an existential threat to the Likud and Yisrael Beiteinu - and PEACE is the ultimate existential threat to both - then Israel must have a war to preserve them. Nothing, absolutely NOTHING will save Likud and Yisrael Beiteinu so securely as dead Israelis. No dead Israelis means they have no reason to exist. Dead Israelis are security for Likud and Yisrael Beiteinu. Got it? So WHO gains security by ensuring Israelis are insecure?
When Hezbollah will attempt another adventure like the 2006 war. Or if Iran gets too cornered on its nuclear program and decides to use some distraction.
None at alllllll *sarcasm blaring*
Is to both prepare the relevant parties(the army,police, authorities), and to act as a deterrence. What are you crying about? It's a yearly drill. We're not testing 4,000 km missiles like Iran, we're preparing the army and the police to handle emergency situations and exercise children to reach the shelter quickly.
remember the kids the idf killed in gaza?.... you drilling to perfect a similar killing in s lebanon... again?
The real reason Israel does not seek peace is because it is better off Financially without it. 15 Billion a year goes to Israel where they can rebudget their money and spend it on a few new Apartment buildings in the settlements.
brilliant insight into Israeli manueverings
where do your numbers come from