MESS Report / After Monday's ocean bloodbath, Israel must work fast to prevent third intifada
If rumors are confirmed that Muslim leader Raed Salah is among casualties of Israel's raid on a Gaza aid convoy, the country's Arab population could explode.
By Amos HarelSome initial reactions to Monday's mid-ocean bloodbath.
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Gaza flotilla launched from Turkey. |
| Photo by: freegaza.org |
1. Assessing the damage: The exact casualty toll during Israel's interception of the aid convoy bound for Gaza is still unclear. Israel has yet to release official and detailed reports, but it is known that several IDF commandos were wounded, two of them seriously. Unofficial reports from outside Israel put the death toll at between 14 and 20, with dozens hurt. The nationalities of the casualties are not known. In the early afternoon rumors were officially put to rest confirming that Raed Salah, head of Israel's Islamic Movement's northern branch, was not among them.
The damage that Israel has caused itself internationally can hardly be exaggerated. A previous crisis with Turkey that erupted earlier this year after Israel humiliated Ankara's ambassador now looks like small change in comparison.
Even before then, relations with Turkey had deteriorated over Israel's Operation Cast Lead in Gaza and the generally anti-Israeli stance taken by Turkey's moderately Islamist government. The new crisis is likely to lead to a total break in ties.
The response from the European Union, whose citizens made up a large portion of the convoy's passenger list, appears to be little softer. Israel will present its case, show footage to prove that activists attacked its commandos with iron bars and knives - but all that will have little effect on the end result. The world will judge the incident as an excessive use of force with no clear justification.
Monday's events will also have consequences for the government's relationship with the Palestinians, and with the country's own Arab minority. Hamas will try to fan the flames to divert the debate away from the trap into which it has led the citizens of blockaded Gaza. It is not unlikely that there will be an escalation on Israel's Gaza border, as well as violent protests in the West Bank.
But the central story here is Israel's Arabs. If Salah is indeed among the casualties, the result could be a wave of riots led by Islamic Movement activists. Targeted provocations by Islamists and left-wing activists will now take on strategic significance. Under certain circumstances, and if both sides fail to take steps to calm the situation, this could even end in a third intifada, or Palestinian uprising. In military terms, this can be considered a "life-altering event."
2. The commandos are not to blame: There is no reason to level accusations at the troops themselves. A severely outnumbered commando lowered at the end of a rope onto the deck of a ship from a helicopter to finds himself attacked with knives has no option but to defend himself from what could be a lynch mob. If - despite all the briefings prior to the operation on the use of proportionate force - he opened fire, it is a fair indication that he had no other course of action.
But this shouldn't eclipse the point that the operation as a whole was a total failure. It failed to meet it declared goals - taking control of the convoy while minimizing the international fallout.
There are several elements that will need investigation:
Preparations for the operation - it seems the IDF had not anticipated the level of resistance it encountered; might it not perhaps have been preferable to go in with a larger force, rather than relying on small teams dropped from helicopters?
The use of intelligence: What did the army know in advance about weapons - clubs, knives or guns - held by the activists? What was the level of visual coverage of the ship during the operation?
In the next few days we will hear Israeli spokespeople bend over backwards to convince us that the navy had no choice, that the other side was to blame. Anyone who attacks a soldier with a knife can hardly be surprised to meet with a violent response - but Israel needs to examine its actions. "Don't fool yourselves," said one experienced army man on Monday morning. "When the spin dies down, we will have to take a deep look at the way the IDF operates. You can be sure that this sort of incident will be handled very differently in the future."
3. The heart of the matter - political decision-making: There will be a need for a detailed investigation into the all the decisions, by political and defense figures at every level, that led to Monday's incident. Starting with the decision by the previous government, under Ehud Olmert, to impose a failed blockade on Gaza (although that administration on one occasion did allow a protest boat through), through to the Netanyahu government's decision to enforce the siege with its raid on the "Freedom Flotilla," and including the involvement of politicians in planning the interception. In view of the long-term consequences, particularly on an international level, it seems there will be no alternative but to appoint an independent committee of inquiry. If in the next few hours we begin to hear conflicting versions of events beyond the official line that the government has so far sold to the media, we will have the best possible indication that politicians understand this.
4. PR failure: Israel knew in advance that it was headed for confrontation, both at sea and in the media. Pictures of armed commandos taking on protesters never play well internationally. The government formed a dual strategy: Jamming broadcast signals from the boats themselves and allowing select pool of local and international journalists, allowed to travel aboard one of the navy's missile boats on condition they did not transmit any footage before returning to shore. Even their cellular phones were confiscated.
The interim result, as of mid-morning Monday: Decisive victory for the Turks. The blackout did not work fully, with the result that bloody images were beamed across the world - no matter that they were only blurry footage from a mobile phone camera.
On the Israeli side, there silence. Israeli writers aboard the navy boat are forbidden by the censor from reporting and as yet we haven't heard a thing from them. At around 10:00 A.M. the army spokesman made a preliminary broadcast. But the electronic media abhor a vacuum: If Israel does not move to fill it, the other side certainly will.
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Turkish Erdogan party is losing its majority position in Turkey. Opposition is bigger than it. This is why he resorted to all sorts of tricks more or less canning however, to somehow build important causes around his "ideas". This includes building ties with Iran and Syria, to promote so-called "dialogs" with the West of these terrorist states, attempting to piss into the West pocket with Iran nuke-swap deal and to claim it is raining; now organizing this Gaza-bound provocation. Hurrying, with not even a single second reserved for understanding of what actually had happened, they 1. Recall ambassador from Israel 2. Force his government-run air company to cut ties with Israeli El-Al 3. Call for UN Security Council urgent session where Turkey - so conveniently - has a rotating membership. All of the goons that attacked Israeli Navy solders were Turkish from IHH, a facade of different islamist outfits organized during Bosnia war to run jihad against Christian Bosnian population. They had weapons to do their job. Too bad - they failed in general; although several of our boys were wounded. Overall, great operation IDF. There are still some who do not cave into islamists tricks, unlike European soon-to-be-Khaliphat states.
Just look at the talkback comments, and it's clear that the anti-Israel crowd would love another intifada. In fact, the Palestinians could really use it too. After years of trying, Fatah and Hamas are not even talking to each other. Peace talks are stalemated mostly because of Fatah impotence. Israel can't make peace with the west bank only, so why not have another intifada to divert attention? It would obviously unite the Palestinians. Well, "unite" is stretching it a lot, but Fatah and Hamas would regain a common goal of wreaking havoc and trying to kill as many Israelis as possible. And no, Dino, your disinformation is weak because Palestinians never stick to attacking IDF soldiers in the west bank only - the Palestinians attack mostly civilians and mostly within the green line. Another intifada would help them. I wonder why more "peace activists" don't see that.
There is no way IDF claims about soldiers' injuries is credible unless they detail the injuries and show proof. And like in the Gaza massacre, were most IDF soldiers hurt by friendly fire?
This wasn't some policy on israel to attack the ship like the media is saying a soldier's gun was taken and then there was a discharge from the gun which lead to the chaos.
WIthout that it would have been far different. But because of that one thing this will be blown up. Last year a ship was stopped without any incident this wasn't a policy.
As a Turkish citizen, I feel sorry for the victims and it is a shame that the IDF did not respond in a more balanced way. As a Turkish citizen, I also condemn the organizers of this flotilla: They cannot just force a blockade. Each country has it own sensitivity and no country would allow any group of people trespassing its own boundary. This is an illegal move, say a cheap provocation. Victories based on demagogy (on both sides) are always short-lived; their consequences may well haunt us for quite some time. As the grand-son of a state-president who contributed for the recognition of Israel by Turkey, I am very worried about the future of the Turkish-Israeli relationships. Interestingly enough, the first ship to be targeted was the Turkish ship, ...at the time Turkey is trying to prevent further sanctions about Iran! A coincidence?
This has already started in 2006, and everybody knows it!
You Turkish prime minister is blowing cold and hot wins. He loves Iran, and Syria, even if they are all un-democratic! What is chocking me? More than 600.000 Kurds and 1.500.000 Armenians were killed by Turkey, until today and tomorrow everyday Kurds are killed by Turks, but Erdogoan is blind, never see it! So Mister Turkey, try to do peace with 20 millions Kurds of Turkey before showing off in the world! a.serhat@laposte.net
yesterday I told my wife that the ship was not for to help the Gaza people but only for media focus. They knew what Israel have to do and was prepared for it. Israel told the ship crew to give the supplies through land but the ship crew refused. Then they attack the Israeli soldiers and they wanted and want the whole world to blame Israel. Anything knew under the sky?
PLEASE. Why are you landing on a ship that you can just as easily divert using SHIPS - that's what they did previously when boats came. Furthermore, you can see from video that soldiers are shooting as they "rope" down onto the boats. What was the plan exactly - soldiers would suggest hundreds of people - jump off, lie on the ground, kneel? Frankly, I would stab and hit a soldier who was shooting at people around me - I think if a gunman was on my bus in Tel Aviv, I would hit him with whatever I had, not hug him or submit. Get a grip. Send police not the army for this sort of thing.
To board the ships at sea when noone was at risk for life or limb seemed heavy handed at best. If Fatah was in charge of Gaza a mechanism would be in place for a different type of Gaza transport system. This does not negate the actions of activists in trying to run a blockade of their shores as their real goal wad to open sea lanes to Gaza to allow more lethal weapons in to fire upon Israeli citizens.
To board the ships at sea when noone was at risk for life or limb seemed heavy handed at best. If Fatah was in charge of Gaza a mechanism would be in place for a different type of Gaza transport system. This does not negate the actions of activists in trying to run a blockade of their shores as their real goal wad to open sea lanes to Gaza to allow more lethal weapons in to fire upon Israeli citizens.
But shouldn't Israel also be working fast to prevent a war with Turkey? After all, that was a Turkish ship, and that ship was in international waters when the IDF stormed it and opened fire. That's a act of war, and if the position had been reversed there is no doubt - none at all - that Israel would go to war with any nation that sent its soldiers to board an Israeli-flagged ship in international waters.
An army boarding civilian ships in international waters will always be viewed as brutal attackers ... The hasbara to explain away this incident simply does not exist!
Of course the troops share responsibility...they should have refused deployment. If you walk into a room of civilians carrying weapons you think everyone is going to say hello?, please come in...
The Gaza siege will be lifted by the end of this week. Or Israel will be faced with engaging Turkish warships escorting the second wave of this aid flotilla.
haaretz cry babies as usual
These activists were sucked into a propaganda coup. Be under no doubt that it will be used to stir up the most violent response. They were warned numerous of times that the flotilla would not be allowed to enter Gaza via the sea. I listened to the early breaking news on the BBC and the report was totally biased in favour of these activists. Not one consideration given to a possible violent reaction from those on board the aid ship. How Israel responds will be interesting, hopefully by video proof that the activists were culpable.
I'm shocked and disappointed with the analysis of Monday's bloodbath. How, after mentioning international laws and calling this situation a bloodbath can you then say that the soldiers cannot be blamed. Surely their numbers are not important. What is relevant is that the ship was waving a white flag, and had sent repeated messages that they are unarmed and want peace. This sort of acceptance of brutal violence is shocking. Shame on you.
If rumors are confirmed that Muslim leader Raed Salah is among casualties of Israel's raid on a Gaza aid convoy, the countries Arab population could explode...... well the 'blockade' is in place to stop members of the arab population exploding... mainly in the usual suicidal fashion. The world and media is against israel regardless of israeli action. just look at hiati blood libels for a most recent example. Israel needed to create a strong deterrent to stop these anti israeli protesters. shame it wasnt galloway that took a bullet.
This article starts by saying that details are not known and then goes on to state that the commandos were attacked... Getting ahead of oneself. Clever accusation by Israel that their troops were shot at... Was it with a gun taken from a commando?
Israel took firm action against a hostile provocation, despite being aware of the near-cerrtainty of negative diplomatic fallout. Hostile players who'd like to make political capital ouf of this will have to take it into account and be deterred, whether they say so or not. One only regrets the casualties among our forces and among flotilla passengers who really thought their action had to do with peacemaking.
Israel took firm action against a hostile provocation, despite being aware of the near-cerrtainty of negative diplomatic fallout. Hostile players who'd like to make political capital ouf of this will have to take it into account and be deterred, whether they say so or not. One only regrets the casualties among our forces and among flotilla passengers who really thought their action had to do with peacemaking.
This piece seems to say, "we know they're out to tar Israeli actions, so let's not take any action for them to negatively portray." Taking these boats was the right thing to do. If the rabble aboard offered violent resistance (and it seems they did), they deserve the punishment they got.
Any threats, provocations et.c and ALL NATO countries are obliged to come to Turkeys aid.
is somewhat refuted by the fact that the IDF always does all it can to prevent the rest of the world from seeing footage of what it actually is doing.
First, we'll see how the claims hold up -- typical through-the-looking-glass claim of Israel that its attacking commandos were victims. But even assuming that's true, those who fight off Somali pirates trying to board their ships are heroic. Those who do the same to Israeli pirates are a "lynch mob"
Don't rule it out, because this action on the high seas does rather appear to be an act of war against Turkey......
The poor Israeli soldiers acting like Somali pirates boarding a civilian ship in international waters... and she is, predictably, accusing the Turkish/Europeans of illegal actions against the moral army...... The Israeli are so stupid? They expect to be believed? Obama, over to you!
Also: That the international community dos not recognise israels blockade as legal (or moral) then the act of preventing a breach of said blockade is equally illigal (and immoral). Therfore if the activists used knives and bats and even automatic weapons they were acting is self defense against an act of piracy!!
Yes, under the current government of idiots like Netanyahu and Lieberman, Israel has become an idiot, rushing into every obvious propaganda trap andcausing itself as much damage as it can. Why didn't Israeli boats simply block the path of the flotilla, instead of creating a situation that virtually demanded resistance, which in turn virtually guaranteed violence and exactly the headlines Israel's enemies wanted? Idiocy.
I guess you liked olmert's two failed wars.
Go look it up december 30, 2008 during the gaza war a boat was rammed and almost sank. That was before bibi and lieberman were in power. The leftists are flexing their muscles now with a leftist in the white house.