ANALYSIS / Netanyahu has won, for now
After a year and a half of political stagnation and Israel's increasing international isolation, Netanyahu can claim his first diplomatic achievement - even if it is a modest one.
By Barak Ravid Tags: Israel news Middle East peace Benjamin Netanyahu Barack ObamaAfter a year and a half of political stagnation and Israel's increasing international isolation, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu can claim his first diplomatic achievement - even if it is a modest one.
Direct peace negotiations with the Palestinian Authority, which are set to re-launch on September 2 in Washington, will begin in accordance with the conditions on which Netanyahu insisted. However, the talks themselves will be Netanyahu's real challenge, when he will be required to make decisions regarding core issues.
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Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. |
| Photo by: Tomer Appelbaum |
Netanyahu's big achievement of the past few months has been his ability to re-direct American pressure: After more than a year of President Barack Obama leveraging heavy pressure on Netanyahu, the U.S. president has begun to apply pressure on Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas to submit to direct peace talks.
With the help of this pressure from Obama, who has been desperate to achieve a diplomatic victory in the Middle East, Netanyahu got his wish – an American declaration of direct talks with no preconditions. This declaration, as announced by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, put an end to the Palestinian demand that negotiations be conducted on the condition that a Palestinian state would be established with 1967 borders.
Senior officials in Jerusalem said Netanyahu had clarified to the Americans that his demand for negotiations without preconditions wasn’t only a political stance; it was also a political necessity that would enable him to keep his coalition government intact. Netanyahu had previously agreed with his partners on the right – Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman, as well as Minister Benny Begin and Vice Prime Minister Moshe Ya'alon – that negotiations would restart with no preconditions. Netanyahu even reiterated this stance in the decision from the forum of seven senior cabinet ministers earlier this week regarding the resumption of peace talks.
With the help of American pressure, Netanyahu also succeeded in rendering essentially meaningless the announcement Friday from the Quartet, which reaffirmed its support for the resolution of all final-status issues. The Palestinians had hoped the European Union, the UN and Russia would be able to hand them a victory by calling for a complete Israeli settlement freeze, but that also did not happen in the end.
The Americans vetoed that demand and clarified that such an announcement would back Netanyahu into a corner and torpedo the negotiations. In the end, the Quartet announcement turned into another international document that lacked bite.
Netanyahu agreed to compromise on one issue – the timetable for negotiations – which also gave the Palestinians something of an achievement. They had demanded a certain timetable in order to bridge their lack of trust regarding Netanyahu's intentions for the peace process. The Israeli premier, who for a year and a half has been trying to prove to the international community that he is a partner for peace, himself recently told the Council on Foreign Relations in New York that he believes peace can be achieved within one year. As such, Netanyahu had no problem compromising on the timetable.
Netanyahu's diplomatic victory, however, is a temporary one. U.S. envoy George Mitchell acquiesced to another of Netanyahu's requests – that talks take place with no American mediator in the room – but the administration plans to be especially active in the process. If Mitchell sees that talks stagnating or foot-dragging on Netanyahu's part, he won't hesitate to put American proposals on the table.
In addition, after the celebratory ceremony in Washington, when the essential and Sisyphean talks begin, Netanyahu will be forced to present his first stances on such issues as borders for a future Palestinian state, the status of Jerusalem and the future of the settlements. Until now, no Likud prime minister has conducted peace talks to reach a final-status agreement with the Palestinian Authority and has, therefore, never been required to seriously deal with these issues. When this moment arrives, the internal differences of opinion, in all their might, and the tension with the American administration will bubble up to the surface and may even intensify. That moment will be Netanyahu's true test.
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Obama and Netanyahu's assent to Bushehr - a slippery slope for Israel's security The Obama administration and Netanyahu government greeted the start-up of Iran's first nuclear reactor at Bushehr with extraordinary meekness, given the grim military and strategic hazards it represents for the region and Israel in particular. Yet nary a squeak of protest came from Washington or Jerusalem when Russian technicians began loading 162 rods of 82 tons of fuel into Iran's nuclear reactor - a process that will take two weeks - Saturday, Aug. 21 - notwithstanding US-led sanctions, Israel's military preparations and international diplomatic posturing. Indeed, the State Department said Saturday after the event that Iran's Bushehr nuclear plant has "no proliferation threat" - a statement that was completely beside the point. Then start all over again...My advice for what is worth,including by some concerned people
Is Obama the most gutless lying weakest President there has been of USA? How can a man of honour go back on his wprd and be manipulated by such an evil man as Netanyahu obviously is? His speeches were just hot air, fine words but for what. Like a fool I believed he was going to be a fair and honest broker. There is nothing to discuss. Israel must be forced to obey UN sanctions and return to the 1948 lines and allow all Palestinian refugees the right of return. If it means returning all the eastern europeons and Americans to their own country so be it.
one of the main reasons that one or both dont want peace is because that would effect military and humanitary aid . if israel had peace with its neighbors there would be no reason for us (usa) or europe to spend our capitol on eithere one of them.
No israel, No Palestine. One State Solution is the best for all. One Man, One Vote, Equality for all inhabitants. Equal Pay for Equal Work, Equal Water Rights. No Apartheid, No Segregation...A Very True Secular Democrac Let us call it: “State of Holy Land”.
If Bib plays his role, he will not extend the Settlement freeze; Abbas will then happily walk out of the negotiations - mission accomplished for both sides. However Bibi may not want to take all the blame so what if he double crosses Abbas, and continues a settlement freeze; that will but Abbas in a difficult position - now it will be his responsibility to sabotage the talks. What will Abbas do now - stay tuned
Israel and especially zionists are on the wrong side of the tide. They are more and more isolated, more and more hated in the world except in the USA. Israel remains for a while, military, very powerful but imagine S-300 and/or S-400 in Lebanon and Syria. Except for their aerial superiority , Israel is nothing. Unable to win against a tiny militia like Hezbollah and even against a microscopic militia like Hamas. I suggest Israel to hurry up to make peace with Arabs otherwise Jews can emigrate to Western countries definitively. As soon as Israel loose his aerial superiority Israel will disappear from the map as Ahmadinedjad used to say.
If the PA has dropped the "pre-condition" demand, it is likely it was a result of a promise made by Obama to Abbas. Obama has to play both sides to get things rolling. At some point later on, he will have to stab one side (or both) in the back. That's when we will know who won.
If they sat down and Abbass puts forth his Pre-conditions.... they will not be accepted.
Is this not a precondition. That only shows that they are not serious about peace.
That agreement is the first thing Obama should go back on -when he makes his play. Netanyahu must understand that this is far too important to allow him to make secret offers, back-room deals, and threats against the Palestinian representative without a witness. Instead, this should be a completely open negotiation process so the world can witness it.
Netanyahu plays his game scene by scene, without much thought of future scenes. Towards the 2009 elections, Netanyahu presented a tough act: He refused to consider a Palestinian state, only an autonomy. He "won", became PM, but because of his position could not bring Kadima into the coalition. The coalition was so right wing that he got into a fight with the US (and Turkey too). Now he agrees to a Palestinian state, but no freezing settlement construction. Netanyahu "won" US acceptance of this, except that the Palestinians will walk out of the talks when the freeze ends. Then he may "win" again after a long time when talks will continue after some form of a freeze (which is a 'must', realistically). But the talks will not lead anywhere because the Likud and the coalition are too hard line. Perhaps the play will continue, perhaps it will end, but Netanyahu can't bring a peace agreement. Call it whatever you like, but I think we will get a unilaterally declared Palestinian state. At least Netanyahu would be able to say that he had no hand in this.
You lose all credibility by blaming Turkish Islamization on Bibi. We already have two Palestinian states. One in Gaza and the other created in East Palestine by the British pursuant to Article 25 of the Mandate for Palestine. Israel will not stand for Iran Hizballah and Hamas in their backyard. Mybe when ahmadinajad disappears and arafat's followers go back to tunisia thing could change!and
Because it is no only the PM but the public expects what he promised when on the STUMP. What does freezing me exactly? Building a few apartments needed for the population?Big deal! Of corse the building will continue,or else BB will be out on his ear.I know it.so do YOU! Also forget the unilateral Pal state.If that happens I assure you there would BE CIVIL WAR.Is that what you advocate?
Well it was, until I read about the American mediator. The whole point of Bibi's pointless peace talks was to take USA out of the room.
That is when Abbas will quit the talks and go home and declare a Palestinian state with universal approval. Or drop the two state fraud and demand their right as citizens of Israel. Either way---Netanyahu/Shamir/Begin/Gurion/Meir et al will have lost.
Now, when i have taken your house we can talk. What? Why don't you want to talk with me? I don't want to talk with you if your demand is that I should return your house, it's mine now! I read the book the Lord of the Rings that this house is mine, Tolkien is my god and if he say so it's the truth! Look at him!!! He doesn't want peace, he is claiming that the house given to me by Tolkien is stolen and by doing so he is provocing me and my family! I can't have any peace talks under such circumstances. First he must stop these unjustified demans and prove that he want peace!! - Any bells ringing?
I am somewhat puzzled by the Israeli stance of ' no pre-conditions' . The Likud led government insist on retaining the whole of Jerusalem. The fact that the majority of the electorate support this does not make it logical. If there is ever to be peace ,I believe in Jerusalem being shared, with the Palestinian parliament being based there.. An open shared City would ensure the situation in Gaza could not happen in Jerusalem.
Why is the world trying to force Arabs to live under a Hamas or Fatah dictatorship. Israel Arabs get hysterical when Lieberman suggested that they live under the PA rulers. They want Israel! The Arabs of Jerusalem are flocking to the Jewish city afraid that the PA will grab them one day... Just because the Nobel Lauriates Rabin and Peres liberated Arafat from Tunisia, it does not mean that the Arabs of the former west bank of the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan should be imprisoned under Hamas or Fatah. The economy is booming the housing is spectacular and the quartet wants to end the good times...so nasty!
constantly demonstrate and boycut setters goods? and those eleated Israeli Arabs being constantly acuused of dislyalty to Israel by shin beit? You are living in a movie, welcome to reality.
You need the dose of reality. The boycott is an attempt to bring down the Israeli economy to the "advanced" levelof its neighbours. Instead of working to improve the situation of the Arabs it is so much easier and easier to sell on the street the concept of destroying what is not yours.
The west bank Arabs are living better than any other arab community in the world without OIL. go visit saudi arabia. other than the oil sheiks the country is in total poverty. go to egypt or syria....EU sponsored groups and people looking to delegitimize a Jewish state democratic state...
No Israeli Arabs seek to escape from Israel to live under Hamas or Fatah. Did you ever wonder why. Or are you too busy smoking??? LOL!!!
it is in irans interest for the talks to fail......so israel and iran are once again in the same camp....neither want peace....neiter respect human rights....both are tin pot countries
War will finish off one and then the other so forget it.
It is rather easy to say that Abbas is an illegal leader of the Pals, that nobody is bound by whatever agreement. Etcpp. And we dont have any outcome yet. How can you be shure that anything is allready regulated?
It was made at the expense of Iran becoming a nuclear power. But fair play his name is still on the door of the Prime Minister's Office. Which is all he cares about.
. Giving up land won't do the trick. We should have learned that after that disaster called the Gaza pull-out. Almost immediately it turned into a cess-pool for terrorists.
Israel got everything from the Gaza withdrawal that it asked of the Palestinian Authority. That was a Palestinian Authority that had no security forces to speak of. The current PA can and does do a lot more now and could do even more if the occupying authority allowed it to. But you seem to want them not to succeed. You are getting what you pay for.
Every one in our world knows that israeli leders don't want any kind of peace settelment in ME. The so called "jewish cleverness" will translate itself in blind stubidity .
Abbas is a coward. He caved in and gave Netanyahu everything he sought. Now the Palestinians get to watch as our leaders "talk" while Israel builds even more settlements on our lands and expels Arabs from E. Jerusalem. Even worse, there is no framework whatsoever so that when the talks fail as Bibi intends, he will not be accountable. Abbas is a fool and a coward for agreeing to this. Him and his cowardly administration must be replaced.
You must be reading news from another planet. Netanyahu did not get everything he wants but Abbas gets another photo op to claim victimhood. Meanwhile Abbas continues to celebrate the passing of murderers of innocent Israelis- some partner for peace!
If Netanyahu signs a peace agreement with the Palestinians, this agreement it will be stronger that if it was signed by Kadima or the Labour party because Netanayhu is the only one capable of creating unanimity around this agreement in Israel. If Israel signs a peace agreement with the Palestinians, he will become the one who brought peace to the Nation.
we won't have to wait long,will we,to find out?and we all know the outcome of this conference and all past and future ones.at least your heart is in the right place.
You must be kidding! From all Israel past and future leader you expect “Netanyahu” to bring peace to the nation. I don’t think so
1. Recognition of Israel as a Jewish State 2. United Jerusalem 3. Defensible Borders 4. Demilitarized state 5. Fourth generation Arabs remain in Arab countries
1. he will never recognize Israel as a Jewish state...etc.
... and that has not changed an iota...
Bibi must confront settlement freeze very soon. He should listen to Meridor. Lift freeze with respect to those settlements obviously to be retained in Israel and freeze all others.
The goal is to push for an ultimate deal that appeases the interest of both moderate arabs and conservative jews and agreeing on a path to quell any resistance from the religous fanatics on both sides...
...both sides don't really want peace, they're just looking for any change to their advantage, plus relief from external pressure to get off their asses and do something. In the past, I would agree. Today, I think Abbas is more reasonable, while Netanyahu is not interested because the Israeli public is secure. If there were bombers or any othedr credible threat to the Israeli public, a need for change or for peace would be there. Minus that, Netanyahu preaches peace and practices indifference. I do contest your equivalence of conservative Jews with Arab or other moderates. I think conservative Jews can be very extremist.
Talk as if he is seriously, until things get unpleasantly close to a resolution, then call home and have intelligence services or IDF create some incident they can easily escalate into a major security crisis. Terror incident, false-flag missile from southern Lebanon or Sinai, or anything big on the Iran front. Count on it, Bibi has backdoor plans to escape any diplomatic compromises or concessions. The only thing he is not clever enough to forestall, is new construction tenders on September 26.
At that exact moment, UN resolution authorizing troops to the 67 line with a unilateral declaration of independence.
Netanyahu is a weak prime minister with a shaky coalition. Abbas is even weaker, and he has no control over Palestinians in Gaza. Obama is a weak president fighting two wars and a weak economy. They'll meet in Washington to great fanfare and press while back home Hamas will lob a few more rockets and the Israelis will break ground for some more Jewish settlements. Neither side really wants peace. Obama is making a mistake to even bother to try on this.
Does it not bother the PM that Abbas has just praised as a "hero" a terrorist who died in exile in Jordan? I can believe that the evil Obama does not care, but I can't believe that Netanyahu is not concerned.
It's an internal PR matter: Abbas knows that the ...m-m-m.. bad man (so to say) is unable to strike from the other side anyway. The only important thing is what will be achieved during the negotiations.
Simple: for your logics, if the terrorist is on the wetern side of the apartheid wall, then he is a hero, if he is in the othar side, then he is not a freedom fighter but a terrorist
And since his game must be fairly obvious to everyone involved, one has to wonder if maybe Obama is giving him all the rope he needs to play out his little ruse - until after the November elections - at which time Bibi will have no doubt shown himself to be without substance, and with the elections over, Obama can press forward with more substantial moves towards the imposition of the goals set forth by the Quartet. I wouldn't exactly chalk this up as a win for Netanyahu just yet. With the upcoming elections essentially tying his hands for awhile, Obama's using the intervening time to call Bibi's bluff and - despite their almost given nature -to unveil Bibi's real intentions toward peace and a viable Palestinian state..
One party goes into negotiations continuing to demolish homes of the other's constituents. No Likud PM, least of all Netanyahu, intends to permit a viable Palestinian state. It is the cruel cynicism of settlement expansion and of the collective punishment in Gaza that are "delegitimizing" Israel, but keeping his coalition intact and himself PM is all that concerns Netanyahu, a moral midget when Israel desperately needs a statesman.
Don't let them steam roll you, Netanyahu. The American people love the Jews and Israel. Praying for you and your great nation!
American people - including myself and my well educated friends with deep pockets (Jewish, Christian and Muslim) -- are increasingly seeing Israel as the only aggressor in the Middle East. We're looking (and praying) for justice for the Palestinian people. Amen.
The only way hat great nation can survive is by accepting a viable Palestinian State, living in peace, side by side with Israel. Otherwise, Israel wil be a single state, with plenty of palestinian people, and then you will have to pray more.
Some TB's believe that criticizing Israel is equivalent to hating Jews. False. It is the policies of the Israeli government that we are objecting to. Many more people across the world are coming to abhor Israel's policies and are now less afraid to say so. Israel's big brother, the US, has always protected it from such criticism, enabling Israel to behave like an aggressive spoiled child with no restraints. It is this aggressiveness and lack of respect for the rule of law that are objected to, not the Jewish people. Why is that so difficult to understand?
100% predictable. Negotiations ongoing since Oslo abruptly halted with election of inept boob Obama and his subsequent failed "freeze" invention (16 years of talks did not require any "freeze" - the PLO figured Obama would get them something for nothing, while they continued terrorist rocket attacks on Israel (gee, no "freeze" on rockets, Obama forgot about demanding that). So after Congress and the American people jerked his chain HARD, the bungling Obama team issues yet another "Sorry, we screwed up", and declares a "victory". The US voters won't buy it in November, and Israel isn't going to go for any "peace deal" that required trusting Obama. Watch.
I seem to recall that there is a construction freeze in the West Bank excluding Jerusalem. Do you think Obama could have said to Bibi on Jan. 20, 2009, go Tatilah, and begin where Olmurt left off? Obama had to get Bibi's attention, and he applied the screws to do so.
Fake "indirect" negotiations Obama invented to save face yielded nothing, since PLO only presented demands, not response to Israeli positions. And the Arab world did not respond to "10-month freeze" that Obama publically promised Bibi - destroying Obanma's credibility. There will be no extension beyond Sept. 26th and if Abbas walks, so what? Israel has still not been paid anything for its past 10-month freeze concession. Obama needs to get Israel something MAJOR back for it, or ZERO point working with him. And he already double-crossed Israel on Iran.
Why? He will have had to have had courses in negotiation techniques. Right?
...means Israel can hide from the world its true positions and blame Abbas for the failure of the talks, again.
and I don't think either of them hides it very well. So what. They will have to live with each other anyway.
Bibi got no preconditions. Abbas is not bound to keep Bibi's secrets if he sees Netanyahu lying or wiggling. Things Bibi wants secret can have a way of becoming public if necessary to keep him honest. There will be records. Nobody can keep all that stuff in their head. And keeping track of lies is the hardest thing to do. I makes for inconsistency.
in supporting Abbas. In fact it can be argued a palestinian State will be established with only the agreement of Egypt and Jordan.
witnessed by another morally corrupt Clinton.
Nethanyahu, I think you have done a good job especially when hostility from other countries surrounds you. Do what you have to do to protect Isreal and God will take care of the rest.Stay on track and don't waver.
As long as Lieberman's party keeps cementing the coalition the PM can stand firm without a necessity to be afraid of a backstab. G-d bless.
He has succeeded in . . . . Oh, I get it. Netanyahu has succeeded in convincing the United States that his personal political survival is the only important thing.
For Iran to have nuke. Since Israel can resist any military threat for now, Turkey and Iran together must put military plus nuke pressure on Israel. This is the only way to convince Israel to make peace. Israel is the biggest threat to the world peace. They don't understand civilize way, they need to be spanked.
Yes, let's make Iran the policeman of the middle east..
Hamas and Fatah will both fight with Israel And in the event that the Jews are expelled they will fight with each other. Either way. That would guarantee eternal war. Well done for solving the mid east crisis! FOOL!!!!
Come on Israel doesn't want peace only wasting time
Everybody always wants peace. The question is the terms. Netanyahu wants peace with settlements and Jerusalem. Beiteinu wants peace without Palestinians. Hamas wants peace without Israel. Fatah/Arab Gulf wants peace with American oil/defense contracts. It's called negotiations because different factions want different things. The question is, in whose interest is the kind of peace that will be negotiated here.
has Bibi right where he wants him. After giving Bibi everything he's asked for, they'll get him in a room and demand that he make real decisions for peace. Failure to deliver will put the Israelis at terrible disadvantage internationally, internally, and with Americans, who are still wondering why we spend so much money over there.
Obama now as everyone except Netanyahu signed on to the Modified Saudi Plan, with Israel agreement from 2yrs ago. Obama alone controls the US vote in UNSC with all other current members backing him on this.
Netanyahu does not want peace, he wants time to keep his coalition together and himself in power.
It sounds as if you are disappointed at Netanyahu'e "victory". However victory will only come when there is peace, something the majority of Israeli's want.
There will be no actual direct talks. Palestinian pre-conditions will be offered up by the US as "bridging proposals", continuing indirect talks where Palestinians hide behind Clinton's skirt & demand Israeli capitulation. These will evolve into American imposed, Palestinian dictated terms of surrender. Bibi must find a way to stall until Obama is gone to avoid dismemberment of the contiguous Jewish state in order to create a contiguous Palestinian state. The sensible way forward is a three state solution of Hamastan in Gaza, Fatahland in the West Bank plus a walled and defensible Israel.
to resist Obama pressure, will not divide Jerusalem and will not trade in Israeli security to a meaningless piece of paper with Abbas signature.
one state for two people. The Palestinians should immediately announce they no longer want a state (quasi state) of their own and start a civil unarmed movement demanding full Israeli citizenship with equal rights and obligations. They have a much better chance at that...
They have no chance of the above.
this was tried between 1922 - 1948 and it did not work.
The dominant political opinion of Israel today is the one represented by Netanyahu and Lieberman. That is "One Nation, One People, One Leader!"
There will be one state. All new citizens will qualify based on allegiance to the Jewish Democratic State. Every state establishes its standards for new citizens, e,g. the USA, Switzerland, and Saudi Arabia. There is no contradiction between a Jewish state and a democratic state. Provided the civil and religious rights of all citizens are protected.ious rights of all minorities are protected. Of course,