ANALYSIS: The moment of truth for the Bush administration
For how long can the U.S. toe a line it sees as justified, but whose positive results are slow to appear?
By Shmuel RosnerFor more than a year now Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has been working on her image around the world. A year's worth of effort, and some worthy achievements, and then in two weeks of crisis everything is ruined.
The Europeans, the ambassadors the United Nations, the leaders of Arab states, all those who saw in Rice a stabilizing factor, calculated and reasonable in the Bush administration, are reevaluating their stance toward her. For Rice, this is a personal blow, and also a professional obstacle. Her prestige is an important tool of the trade, and with its absence she will find it difficult to mark successes in the future.
Rice will return to Washington on Monday, frustrated and bruised from two weeks of an exhausting trek that has come to an end on a bitter note. She will sit in meetings with her team in order to think about the crisis anew. Her first mission will be to ensure that the State Department and the White House are broadcasting on the same wavelength.
For the first time during the talks between the Americans and their Israeli counterparts, there is some tension. Israel is not delivering the goods: a quick and convincing victory over Hezbollah, and in its actions Israel is making it more difficult for the Americans to block the international tide in favor of a cease-fire. As such, in different parts of the Bush administration there is a growing realization that the time is approaching when it will be necessary to "cut and bolt with whatever is at hand," as one Washington source said Sunday. Perhaps this will be sooner than Israel expects.
Still, the White House is not the State Department. It is less sensitive to the cries from Europe and a lot more attuned to the domestic political scene, where Israel has the advantage for the time being.
The war in Lebanon is creating a warm political consensus. Senator Chuck Schumer (Democrat, NY), normally one of the administration's most vociferous critics, said Sunday that "he has no criticism of the president on this issue."
The crisis in Lebanon, according to the senior analyst Stewart Rothenberg, who visited Israel several times prior to the war, "could help President Bush" and the Republicans by placing the terror issue on center stage. As the days go by, the Democrates will try to find a solution to the crisis that would enable them to return to the issues that are less convenient for the administration.
Rice, the only member of the administration that enjoys a higher than 50 percent approval rating in the U.S., will be a prime target. She will walk a tight rope at the UN and attempt to avoid appearing to be undermining relations between the U.S. and its closest allies.
The administration is faced with a tough decision that is likely to be reached Monday or Tuesday: how much longer will the administration be willing to toe a line that it considers justified, but whose positive outcomes are slow to manifest themselves? A senior diplomat said Sunday that this will depend on the degree to which the U.S. "trusts in Israel's ability to win the battle."
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Rice will soon resign like Col. Powell. That is if she is smart and can not hide the lies of the Bush administration. She can get out while she can. Unless she is hungry for her position and does not care about anyone except herself. I call on Israel to show compassion and mercy. Israel can come out victoreous and is able to surprise the whole world with a 180 degree turn. The Arab/Muslim world will welcome with open hands. Picture this, an Israeli soldier walking in Qana, holding a lebanese kid who lost his parents in the recent bombing, asking for peace and wanting to live in Qana. Will it ever happen? Only the Jewish can make this happen. As I mentioned before, possesions stay, we do not.
The truth will reveal itself and the righteous one will prevail. Keep in mind, it is not who wins the war or the battle, it is the one who affects the minds of the people. So far, Sayed Hassan Nasrallah has won the minds of the people and Israel's Army has smeared the faces of the Jewish people with shame and embarrasment. From today till the end of time, good will always win over evil. You have to decide who is the evil and who is the good. But be careful, you have to be well informed, study the history, evaluate the facts, learn the intentions of your leaders, and finally question your government and even your religion.
Who is demolishing civilian villages? Who is destroying an entire country's infrastructure? who is killing children on daily basis? They speak of smart bombs. They should call it "childrens' daily special", produced in the US, prepared in Israel and fried in Lebanon. Have you not learned yet that no power in this world will be able to destroy the will of the people.
Mr. Rosner, answer this question. Why is it that anytime a president in the US or a prime minister in Israel wants to gain approval and acceptance, more kids have to be mutilated? This same scenario in the Middle East is making people angry and creating a time bomb that will only affect Israel primarily and the United States secondarily. I ask the people of Israel to fight against this war and send a message of peace to the rest of the world. No, I do not want to walk on this earth hating every Jewish person I see or meet. It is not fair. I have many Jewish friends who would stand against these atrocities commited by president Bush and prime minister Olmert. The kids of Lebanon will never forget. Another huge scar on the face of every Lebanese citizen, especially the faces of Hizbollah's kids. Way to go Olmert and go to hell Bush.
Any diplomacy with Syria will have to include some discussions of the Israeli-occupied Shebaa Farms and Golan Heights. A quick peaceful solution would ultimately be withdrawal of Israel from these Arab lands but now that is not going to happen - this is after all the 'promised land' for the Jews.
The birth pangs of the so called New Middle east are there for all to see in the cries of the hapless children in Lebanon. Condi has proved to be Midwife from Hell. Ms Rice has been a failure as national security adviser and a disaster as Secratary Of State. May God help USA
There will be a winner and a loser in this long term struggle. It`s really that simple. Pick your side. --- I pick justice. Bye-bye Israel.
Well done Olmert! Muslims all over the world are tramoling yours and Goerge Bush`s effigies tonight, and trampling on the Israel and American flags. --- Not only Muslims. Christians and Jews are outraged. In Los Angeles there were protest demonstrations held every day last week, and the same are planned for this week. Israeli and American Jews held three anti-Israel demonstrations outside the Israeli Consulate, opposed one day by a lone zionist pathetically waving his disgusting Israeli rag. Come on out LA Zionists.. Wednesday 12-1PM at the Israeli Consulate on Wilshire Boulevard.
Israel has no choice but to respond to terrorist actions. It isn't about winning. It's about survival and we can't forget this. When have these terrorists ever lived up to any agreements they've made? Israel has no choice but to respond and preferably in an unpredictable manner. There will be future problems, but deterrence will be best if Israel's future reactions are not always predictably restrained and measured.
I don't think Israel understands how tired many Palestinians, Arabs and Muslims are of the Israel-Palestine War. Though I suspect some of those who claim peace with the Pals is impossible understand it all too well and are terrified of it. The price of peace is the evacuation of the settlements unless changes are made to the Green Line by mutual consent. To ask the Palestinians to accept less than the 22% of the land under dispute is to rub their noses in the fact that most of the land they want and also have a legitimate claim to will remain Israeli. A peace settlement on this basis acknowledges that Arabs lost ground in Palestine by choosing war over peace in 1948,1967, and 1973 and seems the fairest compromise possible between these 2 immovable forces of Jewish will and Muslim will.
"I`d be happy to see them disappear, but it`s mostly innocent civilians who are disappearing from us," - Mike Mike, Israel under Olmert and the United States under Bush are not Israel under Ben Gurion and the United States under Eisenhower. Killing the bad guys is hard, killing civilians easy. What matters to both Olmert and Bush is killing. So, do you do the bad guys, or do you kill the easy ones?
"What would you have done that Rice didn`t do ?" - Steve An impossible question to answer. I am a decent person. I never would have been part of the Bush junta. I am an honest person. I never would have stated my goal as peace and done every thing I could to prevent it. How can a decent honest person possibly answer to the question what they would have done in the place of a degenerate and murderous criminal? They never would be in that position in the first place.
Mark from Tennesee, I do not want Israel Eliminated. I want Israel to stop doing harm to itself. You clearly have no comprehension of reality. The reality is that the situation less than three weeks ago was that Israel had been attacked by Hizbollah and had a right to defend itself. Even Saudi Arabia took that position. In the ensuing time the Olmert Government has so viscously attacked innocent Lebanese that the world has forgot Hizbollah started the slaughter. The monster responsible for the destruction of Israel's good name is not Mark Lincoln, it is Ehud Olmert.
This is the time for the US to completely cut off all aid and help to all in the middle east and let them bloody each other until they are ready to practice a lost art of forgiveness and compassion for others. You cannot help those who will not help themselves. Figure it out and give us a call when your ready to talk.
It is a moment of truth for the Bush Administration, and I'm somewhat disappointed with Secretary Rice's underestimation of the tragic developments of the initial conflict two weeks ago at the border between Israel and Lebanon. Look what has manifested?
every decision for this senator is based on how it will affact israel .. that children killer is more worry about the well being of the israeli solders than our 130,000 american troops in Iraq . we lost more US troops in iraq in the last 3 weeks than israeli troops ..because of the war in lebanon .. the iraquis are making us pay the price for israel atrocity . this gentelman should be voted out ,he is bad for america ..too much of a kiss ass.
The Bush administration has sped up the process of Islamist successes in the world. The Saudi Kingdom, Egypt and other gulf states' regimes' future is very bleak. I give the Saudi royal family 10 years at the most before there is an Islamist takeover of that country. It won't matter how much military equipment they get from the US, the people will overthrow these dictatorships sooner or later. People will support the Islamists over the current dictators.
this is inhuman
I'd be happy to see them disappear, but it's mostly innocent civilians who are disappearing from us, at Israel's hands, in a war of choice, to blur the fact that Israel isn't ready to pay the price of peace, which is the evacuation of Ariel, etc.
The world outrage over Qana seems somewhat hypocritical since we hear little outrage over Hezbollah rocketing of civilians in Israel, suicide bombings of buses and restaurants over and over. The arabs are only outraged when it hits them like in the Jordanian wedding and of course a Danish cartoon. Israel is making a mistake with this cease fire.There is no pacifying the howling mob.
John, Your analysis is correct except for one point. Hezbollah is emerging stronger in Lebanese politics than it was before the crisis because it is being perceived as the only force that is resisting the external attacker (Israel). Walid Jumblatt in a recent interview [ublished in the Wall Street Journal indicated that there are three ways to disarm Hezbollah 1) Occupy the all of Lebanon, put a multinational force to guard the entirety of the Lebanese-Syrian border, or regime change in Syria. He also went on to say that after the end of the conflict there is a real fear that those who supported Lebanese independence at the expense of Syria and were consequntly at odds with Hezbollah face possible reprisals and assasinations. Thus Lebanon has the real risk of becoming an Islamic "democracy" as a result of this conflict.
Meni,you hit the nail right on the head, and if anyone is Nieve to believe differenty, they need to rethink what Hezbollah stands for.
What would you have done that Rice didn't do ?
no one under the sun could make the lebanese kneel , and I don't want any lebanese to distroy isreal . all I want good future for every child in lebanon and isreal . stop stop the war machine otherwise all be crying
Hiz is dedicated to the destruction of the Jewish state with no compromise. There will be a winner and a loser in this long term struggle. It's really that simple. Pick your side.
No, it has to do with prejudice, racism, hatred of "the other." Having grown up with prejudices inculcated by previous generations, I recognize when behavior that is admired in one group of people is deplored in another group, when behavior that is excused or overlooked in one group of people is condemned in another. And that is what is happening here.
Quite right. Muslim reactions to Jewish "massacres" are historic, even to the point of creating them when none exist (Jenin). But as far as over 5000 muslims slaughtering each other in Iraq each month or their barbaric behavior in Darfur, or the murder and maiming of Indians, Spanish, British, American, Australian, or Russian civillians....well that is ok. Because we are all kafirs, infidels, that must be slaughtered and offered up as human sacrifices to their blood thirsty god. If we are lucky we will be dhimmis in their fantasy Islamic caliphate that rules the world. Just one problem. Will the Sunnis or Shias rule it. That's what this war in Lebanon is really about.
what really annoys me from time to time is that in the responses to a critical comment about the israelian military way of doing things I often find the mentioning of one of the other human catastrophies caused by men, as if a new sin wouldn't be a new sin wouldn't be one sin more. human catastrophies caused by men reveling in the worst that is undoubtedly genotypically existent in humankind as a whole while not necessarily in everyone or any group at any time at a constant level phenotypically. if you don't grant others the ability to change you make it harder for them to evolve and expand the time you have problems with them.
That is an interesting point of view. I have not seen or read any complain from Muslim countries or Europeans regarding the massacre in Sudan from Muslim militias against non-Muslim population. A couple of months ago a Christian convert was almost killed because some silly reasons.. Pretty much every day dozen of civilians are killed in Iraq by Muslim bombers and I still do not see any rally asking or demanding a stop.... Muslim declared a week ago a Holy war in Somalia?. It seems that human life in some countries are important only depending if they are Muslim or are being killed by non-Muslim
the attack in qana poses a major setback to israel because it will trigger arab unity or even international interventions.
thats what people said after israel withdrew in 2000. hezbollah found an excuse. they will find another. only solution is to fight them. people don't understand that israel is under attack and that 'cut and run' is bogus - it is israel being attacked so you can't cut and run from that. if israel stops shooting, hizbollah won't until they are dead.
Well done Olmert! Muslims all over the world are tramoling yours and Goerge Bush's effigies tonight, and trampling on the Israel and American flags. It wil be veryinterestign to see what you guys can do with another 6 months in power!
There will be no all out attack with groundtroups on Lebanon and tens of thousands of troups unless Israel wants to create a new Afghanistan from which groups will arise that will look Hizbollah look like the school choir-boy. Hizbollah again defeated the Israeli army in Lebanon. Just make peace with Lebanon and get out of Shaba. Israel should try it. Who knows, it might like it? Hizbollah will turn into just a political party (it didn't exist before 1982 and was founded because of the Israeli invasion) and the border will turn quiet.
Saudi just jerked Bush's oil chain. He will come to the heel of his master. The US suddenly changed from cease fire in weeks, to days, to truce now. The dummycrats may be terrified of Bush, but the King of Saudi Arabia knows how to handle him.
Iran really needed all that ammo and funding of Hezbollah to go toward protecting Iran against a pre-emptive strike by Israel, because they fear Israel.. all the strong rhetoric about Israel proves this very fear... now with the Hezbollah ammo and funding deminishing how can Iran be protected now? They cannot... now their own fears will consume them where they stand. Good work, Iran, you did it to yourselves!
It does not sound strange. No sooner than this war broke out and the neocons were talking up using as part of a combined campaign with the US attacking Iran. That the hawks had been smarting over the decision to not attack Iran and to try diplomacy for a change (and thus an shift in influence from Rummy to Condi) has been no secret to anyone watching the emissions from the cesspool on the Potomac.
The threat of military option is a tool of diplomacy. But when this didn't worked and the war started the diplomacy is over.However the USA should renounce to push the diplomatic option now on Israel- Lebanon conflict and restart and readdress the standard diplomatic process toward Syria. Use the military threat option directly toghether with the sunny side incentive. Israel will do the job. Without Syria and Hezbolah, Iran has no deterence.
If Bush and Condi push Israel to cease firing before victory is achieved then how will these two continue to resist domestic opposition to the Iraq war by folks like Murtha? Forcing Israel to surrender to Hizbulla will result in America slithering out of Iraq in defeat. The decline of the West accelerates. Haaretz censors: You may be wondering why I continue to post under this name even though you have discarded every one of my messages this week - it is because I do not believe in surrendering to the enemy, what do you believe? What are you afraid of?
Just as the US cabinet is divided so is the IDF, there are those that may actually work behind the back of the US president and undermind Condoleezza's effort. It may sound strange but Condoleezza is on her way out. It has been carefully orchestrated. Rummy & Cheney have their friends in Israel and they took care of Condi for them, she is in the way.
Rice has totally botched Mission Impossible. The Bush regime has produced another monumental and self-destroying fiasco. After spending a week using all her - and her boss's - might to prevent a cease fire Condi has been Knocked Out for the ten count by a one-two from the Lebanese Government and the IAF. The Lebanese peace plan sounds quite reasonable to an outraged world, and the IAF managed to deliver an attrocity at just the wrong moement. It's the end of the road.
The only way to crush Hezbollah once and for all is by ground troops operation which Israel is not willing to do for fear of losing troops and/or not be able to finish the job. Air strikes kill civilians and will not finish Hezbollah, as soon as the air strikes stop and cease fire been arranged, Hezbollah will regroup and stay as strong as before inside the Lebanese govenment.