ANALYSIS / Shalit video means a deal with Hamas is a question of when, not if
Video was a clear tie-breaker for Hamas, who are reaping the rewards on the Palestinian street.
By Avi Issacharoff Tags: Shalit video Hamas Gaza Israel newsThousands more words will be written in an attempt to analyze the video in which Gilad Shalit was seen by the Israeli public for the first time since he was abducted by Hamas in a cross-border raid on June 25th, 2006, but only two words are necessary: he's healthy.
It's difficult to say what his emotional state is and how his captors are treating him, but he appears well-shaven, clean-cut, and well put-together.
More than anything else, it appears that the video was intended not only to give testimony to Shalit's condition, being that Israeli security services were already aware that he is in good physical condition.
The video will pave Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's road to a painful and difficult prisoner exchange with Hamas for Shalit, a deal that will include the release of some of the most dangerous prisoners in Israel's hands.
Even before the release of the video, it was difficult for Netanyahu to hear public voices saying that Israel is not allowed to pay a hefty price for Shalit's freedom. The Israeli media was part and parcel of this campaign. Nonetheless, at the moment, after the release of the video, it's possible to declare that no public leader will not take measures to scuttle a deal at any price for Shalit.
Netanyahu, who Shalit mentioned by name in the video, can be pleased by the video. He won't find dissenters in the government or the media to a plan to release hundreds of terrorists for Shalit.
The same goes for Hamas. The organization understood that in order to encourage Israeli support for a deal and to raise the pressure on Jerusalem, they would need to change the nature of negotiations with Israel. The video, which gave a clear sign of life, presents a clear tie-breaker between Israel and Hamas. For now on, the question is not if, but when a deal for Shalit will take place.
It's difficult to imagine that any official in the Israeli security services will entertain the idea of proposing a military action to free Shalit. The action would not only endanger the life of Shalit, but also the career of any leader who approves the operation.
The Israeli public will demand to see Shalit as soon as possible at home with his family, who will be leading a public protest outside the home of Netanyahu in Jerusalem.
Hamas can also chalk up another victory. All through the Palestinian territories Friday, the talk was of Israel's release of 19 prisoners, 18 to the West Bank and one to Gaza, with the 20th prisoner set to be released on Sunday.
Even Fatah and Islamic Jihad officials have admitted Hamas has achieved a great public relations victory with the Palestinian people as a result of the prisoner release.
Even though the Palestinian Authority has attempted to downplay the Hamas achievement, the entire Palestinian street knows who is responsible for Friday's victory. A Fatah official said clearly on Friday that "the only way to bring the release of prisoners is through force. We have already learned that negotiations with you Israelis do not bring results."
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How can you say he looks healthy? He is very thin and withering away. The fact that he was clean shaven and his hair cut nicely means NOTHING! Even the worst murderer is given a shave and haircut, a decent suit to put on for his day in court in order to present himself in the best possible light. How do we really know how he is being treated? We don't! And given the group that's holding him we better get back home sooner rather than later.
You guys have bright ideas that have nothing to do with reality. Israel is a democracy. Hamas is a terrorist organization opposed to the occupation. They have different constituencies, and different goals. Israel likes to maintain the idea that it will do what it has to do in order to rescue or redeem any citizen, and especially any soldier. Hamas's only hope for freedom is to make the occupation so costly to Israel that it gives up and goes home. Israel has overwhelming force, and Hamas is very weak. Thus Israel is able to arrest many Palestinians and Hamas has few chances, and far fewer successes, in taking hostages. Thus Israel has many bargaining chips and Hamas has one. . . So each tries to do the best deal it can. The problem for Israel's leaders is that no matter what they do, redeem or forsake, the political cost will be high. Whereas Hamas need only hold until Israel gives in.
The swap should be for 100% of Israelis under captivity for 100% of Palestinians under captivity. That is "equal" according to the subjective metric I put weight behind, and would not leave persons behind to serve as incentive for further action to get them back. Do you want a one-sided justice, where Pals, innocent and guilty, get locked up but not the many Israeli killers of the other side in your midst, or do you want to take measures to end the reasons for continued hostility between your two peoples? A stupid question really, because we both know that Israelis do want to continue the subjugation of the Palestinians for its benefits, with all that that entails but the repercussions.
The only way to negotiate is on a one-for-one basis. If the Palestinians claim about "disproportionality" they can't then demand thousands for one.
For the thousandth time Haaretz pronounces a deal for Gilad Shalit is at hand. Yeah, sure.
You occupy our country, you torment our people, and you are trying to destroy our present and future. Hence, we have a duty to fight you. If you think this is terror, be it. But we will continue to fight you until you leave us alone. We will not wait until you give us freedom. Freedom is obtained by force, not given as a charity.
that's why we israelis are such morons, because we keep playing this revolving prison door game. if there was capital punishment for the worst of these murderous terrorists there would be no bargaining chips and no motivation to abduct soldiers/civilians. when will we wake up out of this haze???? planning, executing and then taking full pride in the park hotel bombing (just as one of many examples) seems as good a case for the death penalty as any. yet the architect of this mass murder will likely soon go free thanks to our laughable system.
Israel will set terrorist free anyway. Israel is setting that precedent anyway. Israel is dealing indirectly with Hamas. These were the things Israel didn't want. It is doing them nevertheless. And the fact it is doing them nevertheless now, not more three years ago, makes it ever more a incomprehensible: Gilad and his fanmily have suffered more than anybody can imagine. Hamas has been granted the "victory" it wants. And terrorists with blood on their hands will be set free. Why this ordeal? It should have been done before, when the damage to Gilad and to Israel wasn't as terrible in the personal, political and security aspects. This has been insensitive subbornness and lack of insight.
Hanye and his treating physician.