Analysis: Palestinian factions' rivalries may soon reemerge

Despite the fears of anarchy and chaos among the Palestinian leadership, it has conducted itself in a quiet and orderly fashion over the past few days. The various security services have also almost completely eschewed the violent struggles in which they were engaged until recently. Spokesmen for the Islamic and leftist opposition factions are being careful not to use provocative language against their rivals and to maintain the image of unity. Yasser Abed Rabbo, a member of the PLO's executive committee, said Thursday that all members of the leadership share a sense of responsibility and unity.

Nevertheless, it is clear that this is a temporary lull, and that differences of opinion and rivalries among factions and individuals are liable to reemerge quickly.

Senior Palestinian officials all agreed Thursday that they must not be drawn into disputes and quarrels at such a difficult moment. It is clear to everyone that Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen) will be Yasser Arafat's replacement in two of his principal roles: head of the PLO's executive committee and head of the Fatah movement. Arafat's third major role, head of the Palestinian Authority, will be filled for now by Prime Minister Ahmed Qureia (Abu Ala).

The Palestinian leadership wants Arafat's powers to be transferred exactly as specified in each organization's laws and regulations. For the most important role, head of the PLO, there is no problem: Abbas is secretary and deputy head of this organization, which is the Palestinians' most important political institution. The role of head of the PA also presents no special problems: Qureia is already de facto head of the government, which the Palestinian leadership views more as an executor of orders, responsible for supplying services to the population, than as a maker of political decisions.

Arafat's official replacement in the least important of the three bodies, Fatah's Central Committee (which is the equivalent of a Communist politburo) is Farouk Kaddoumi, head of the PLO's political department. Kaddoumi is also the only one of Fatah's five founding members (of whom Arafat was one) who is still alive. But since Kaddoumi opposed the Oslo Accord and refused to return to the territories after it was signed, Abbas has been serving as his replacement on Fatah's Central Committee, and he is the one who chaired the committee's recent meetings in Ramallah.

People who attended these meetings said that, despite the uncertainty, the proceedings were calm compared to those chaired by Arafat. One reason for this is that Abbas insisted that only committee members participate: He evicted all the advisers and cronies whom Arafat used to allow in.