Analysis: Katyusha in Ashkelon / The other side is cautious too

The Katyusha rocket that hit the northern part of Ashkelon Thursday does not herald a new situation in the fighting on the Gaza border. Katyushas and even enhanced Qassam rockets have landed in Ashkelon before. The only difference is that this one landed a few hundred meters farther north.

But that, of course, is not the whole story. A rocket hitting Ashkelon's northern edge means that another several thousand people are suddenly in rocket range of Gaza. In financial terms, this is a significant change, if one assumes that Ashkelon will demand the same defensive package priced at NIS 310 million for the much smaller Sderot.

The Palestinians who launched Thursday's rocket know this very well. That was the message they intended to send Israel - that they are capable of hurting it. They also sought to respond to Israeli attacks that have killed dozens of Palestinians in the last month, most of them terrorists.

Though television cameras hastened to record the (justifiably) worried reactions of Ashkelon residents, the city fathers are trying to play down the incident and return to normalcy. But it is clear that the threat to Ashkelon is now greater than had previously been thought.

If they so desire, Palestinian groups are now capable of bombarding Ashkelon regularly, and with an ample number of rockets. They have enough Katyushas and enhanced Qassams, the rockets can be stored for relatively long periods, and the ruins of the former settlements in northern Gaza provide a launching ground from which the rockets can reach northern Ashkelon.

The only reason this has not yet happened is that Hamas does not want a major clash with Israel. Most rockets hitting Ashkelon are launched by Islamic Jihad, albeit with Hamas' consent. If Hamas decides to attack, it will not make do with a lone Katyusha.

Hamas is still mulling a short-term cease-fire with Israel. It seems that progress has recently occurred in the parties' indirect negotiations, and until such an agreement is reached (or definitively not reached), both Hamas and the Israel Defense Forces will keep the fighting on a relatively low flame.

Israel's response to Thursday's Katyusha attack was nothing out of the ordinary: It bombed a few Hamas and Islamic Jihad targets. It is far from declaring war on Gaza. The timing is poor - at the height of winter and on the eve of U.S. President George W. Bush's visit and publication of the Winograd Report on the Second Lebanon War. And in any case, Israeli leaders are doubtful that any real military gains can be made against Hamas right now.

But before complaining about Israel's lack of response to the rocket fire, it is worth remembering the following: The biggest price of the recent low-intensity warfare is being paid by the terrorists, who are being killed by the dozen. Thus it is not just Israel that is exercising restraint. So is Hamas.

	Sapper clearing Katyusha rocket that hit northern Ashkelon on Thursday. (Limor Edrey)