ANALYSIS: It's all a question of timing

Palestinian sources said Saturday that Corporal Gilad Shalit could very well be moved from the Gaza Strip to Egypt Sunday night. The sources based their remarks on statements by Palestinian figures, including Palestinian Authority Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh, according to which important developments relating to Shalit's release and the release of Palestinian security prisoners were expected within the next several hours.

The timing is connected to PA Chairman Mahmoud Abbas' trip to the United States Monday. Abbas is scheduled to meet with President George Bush on Monday. Abbas had wanted the national unity government in the PA to be in place prior to his visit. However, in light of U.S. reservations about the new government's platform - it falls short of explicitly recognizing Israel and the PA's previous agreement - Abbas and his aides decided not to present the Americans with a fait accompli and instead to convince them that the platform allows for diplomatic progress. Now the chairman is hoping to present Bush with one obvious achievement: the release of Gilad Shalit.

According to information leaked from the Egyptian-mediated, indirect negotiations between Hamas representatives located in Cairo and Israeli representative Ofer Dekel, former deputy head of the Shin Bet security service, the first stage of the agreement over Shalit's release ended with partial success. The court of the Ofer Military Base decided to release the Hamas ministers and legislators in custody in return for the transfer to Egypt of a letter written by Shalit. The next step is supposed to be the transfer of Shalit himself to Egypt and the release of the Hamas officials, in accordance with the decision tomorrow by the military court at Ofer. (The military judges are free to decide, but the military prosecution is following the directives of senior military officials and could ask for either the release or continued remand of the detainees.)

If this stage is successful, Shalit will be returned to Israel by the end of the week. At the same time Israel will release a few hundred Palestinian prisoners: women and minors charged with crimes other than murder. Ramadan begins this coming weekend, and for the Palestinians it is very important for the prisoners to be released before the month-long fast.

Palestinian sources say the Hamas-Israeli negotiators are also discussing the release, in time for the Id al-Fitr holiday that concludes the month of Ramadan, of Palestinian prisoners who have been in custody since before the 1993 Oslo Accords. The Palestinians are lobbying for the inclusion of Marwan Barghouti, Ahmad Sa'adat and Khosam Haddad in this release.