Analysis: Israel monitoring Lebanese politics closely

The civilised nations, India among them, will annihilate the Iranian nuclear programme and military more generally before the year is out. This will have the salutary consequence, not only of eliminating the gathering threat that is Iran's own theocratic nuclearization, but also of forcing an immediate reassment of its situation upon Syria. The same, of course, then will be true of Hizbola. Expect a much more tranquil and civilised middle east by early 2008.

Yonatan I for one have faith in the first law of nature, and that is self preservation trumps all. One thing I believe that even you can agree with me is true history (not the history that is based upon what despots believe should have happened) is irrefutable that the Jews as a society overcame all efforts throughout to history by almost every nation or a religious theology such as the Crusaders at one time or another made an attempt to destroy them yet against all odds survived and flourish, that I attribute to their ability to as the saying goes ?roll with the punches? and place great emphasis upon education for their children. The level of illiteracy in many countries is staggering and becomes fertile grounds to attract violence prone persons to some cause or another by the promises of enrichment without working for it. We might not see at the moment the ?Knight in shining armor coming to the rescue? but believe me when a nation that has the knowledge that there I no substitute for victory, it is either prevail or perish, a ?Gibor Chayil? will be forthcoming and save the day.as has been proven time and time again Modern Israel, 1948, 1956, 1967, 1973, Iraq attempt in Ofrah, the intifada of 2000. all the afore mentioned should not conflict with your personal perception of your worth

I know yur intentions are good, but I simply don't see any deus ex machina" or "great white hero" on the horizon. And though my name may mean "YHWH has given", I by no means see myself as God's gift to this nation, and prefer to do what I do now. On this and on politicans in general, read the Parable of Jotham, Judges 9. BTW, Kefar-Sava is what it's called in the Talmud, and the way it appears at the local Post Office, even though everyone, me included, calls it Kfar-Saba.

the answer to "who may these be" if you read my opinion I did not name any single person or party all I wrote was that a poltical party hack that his main concern is his position is not capable of governing Israel in a time of crises. but nececity is the mother of invention so is a countries leadership. ie: Churchil in WW2, Dayan 1967, Rabin 1973. so (I will give you the source of you name) "Yo" referes to God, "Natan" is gave I can assure you that amoungst the Jewish Israeli population there are many that can fill that requirment, even if, as you claim that I am preaching from a safe distance what my posting intent was more in the form as a prayer then giving advice "from a safe distance" Shalom al kol Yisrael

Nathalie, I know you can't help being a paranoid "conspiracist" and that in your mindset the Jews and Israel pull the strings to all the world's events, including road accidents. But most people realise Israel got a bloody nose in Lebanon because Hizbollocks were hiding behalf human shields. Perhaps you would have preferred Israel to act like the Syrians and just raise entire cities to the ground, civilians and military alike - as Assad did with Hama? Why not take a break from the Jews this summer and focus your hostilities on some other ethnic group? I hear the Kurds are an easy target.

And who may these be, chaim? It's very easy for you to preach, sitting there safe and snug in Mimami Beach (where you probably eat the Early Bird Special), but I don't see any such leaders on the horizon on any political party, at least none with any practical experience in running a nation. We will have to make to do with the leaders we have for the nonce.

Will Lebanon be engulfed in a civil war all indicators are pointing that way can Israel remain neutral, if history is any indicator the losing side in that civil war will force Israel into the conflict in the hope of as the saying goes your enemy is my enemy so let us reunite and fight our common enemy Israel. The only hope that Israel might have to remain neutral and be spared involvement is to change the government and get rid of Olmart and company including the new Defense Minister who thinks he is still a brilliant military strategist, when all he knows is to abandon and retreat in the middle of the night. Israel needs now more then ever true heroic leaders, who they are or may be is up to the Israeli citizens and not political party hacks

We are still a long way from a shooting war. Israel would like to push the Siniora government into attacking Hizbollah in order to start a civil war, in the same way that Israel did with the Palestinians. Siniora seems pro-Israeli in any case. He did not call upon the Lebanese armed forces to lift a finger against Israel, even though Israel was making devestating attacks all over Lebanon. In classic Israeli style, since the IDF could not beat Hizbollah, Israel seeks another nation to do the dirty work.

I see you never post on Shabbes. Do you live in Meah Shearim, Bnei Brak, or perhaps in Brussels or Williamsburg? Are you a Satmar? Neturei Karta? Edoh Haredis? You know, of course, that this coming Shabbes we're reading two parshes, Matos and Maso'ey. Do you do shnayim miqroh ve-echod margum, or perhaps, being a woman, you are pohtour mi-mitzvos she-zman gromon?

I agree with you, GK; there is definitely something going on. I have my ideas on it: I suppose that so-called Israel will soon attack Lebanon and Syria, each in their turn, beginning July 15-20. In this context, one might note that the majority of Lebanese governmental officials have already left their country. As Iran and Syria have mutual defense agreements, that will give the USofA time to get their ducks in order to attack Iran in August-September. One might note that the entire Iraqi government will be on holiday (aka out of he country) for the entire month of August. One only has to watch the busy meetings of all and sundry in either so-called Israel or Washington, combined with Livni visiting each and every European capital in the last few weeks. For any GWB/Cheney watcher, it's clear that they will thus change the subject re their unpopular war in Iraq. A much wider war in the Middle East is right around the corner.

I hope it is not Amos Harel who is monitering lebanese politics for the israeli govnt. he is 2 simplistic in his analysis by labeling the opposition as pro syrian and the govnt anti-syrian. Israeli should know that biggest anti syrian occupation movement is general Aoun party and most 14th march politicians were vichy style collaborators with the syrian regime. Hariri and Joumblatt were H.Assad biggest allies and crushed Christian opposition to Syrian occupation.Siniora is islamizing and Christians are fed up and the people are fed up with highly corrupt Harri Joumblatt gang

Lebanon: There are a lot of uncertainty between now and the presidential election. HA is trying to create facts on the ground but making the ?other than Shia3a? leave Lebanon so the next election will get them more power. They will never be a majority but may get them more MPs. Unless it will backfire and the ?other than Shi3a? are sick of Hizb-Iran and will vote them out! Summary: ANY thing may ignite a war in the Region but the window will close by end of August! But you never know. The 1973 war started in October!

I sense that there is something cooking somewhere somehow! I don?t know what! Iran: Condelezza Rice is using the same tactics that was used on the Soviet Union on Iran. By the way, her specialty is the Soviet Union. The US wants to outspend Iran (Iran can barely have enough gas for its cars) and keep Iran on alert until it breaks down! Yes, Iran will have a nuclear bomb (Soviet Union had thousands of them) but will not dare use it because it knows that Iran will be a waste land for a million years! Syria: My feeling on Syria is that Bashar Asad pretending that he wants to create a front like the one that Hizbullah created in South Lebanon but he is bluffing! He knows that Israel will hit HIS palace and Asad family will be gone for ever! Israel: Barak is in control of the IDF and its military is itching for a rematch with Hizbullah and are ready to hit Syria if it interferes! Asad will never interfere. He just talks!