Analysis: Hamas will probably continue observing the calm
The PA's future depends on cooperation between Hamas and Abbas as well as the international financial aid.
By Arnon Regular, Haaretz CorrespondentFourteen months after the death of Yasser Arafat, the Fatah movement he had established has lost its 41-year-long supremacy over the Palestinian national movement.
According to current predictions, Hamas may hold 75-80 seats in the next parliament, and lead to the collapse of Fatah, which was immersed in internal struggles up until a short time before the elections, and did not notice that Hamas was overtaking it.
The Palestinian Authority is now facing a complex constitutional situation, whereby the elected Palestinian chairman, Mahmoud Abbas, who is also the chairman of the minority Fatah movement, could face a Hamas-led parliament which in turn would appoint a government which advocates significantly different policies to that of the chairman.
If both sides do not reach some form of cooperation agreement along mutual guidelines, a situation may arise in which the Hamas government would lead a certain policy, while Abbas, who determines the PA's foreign policy, would continue to negotiate with Israel and the international community, which refuses to hold talks with a Hamas-led government.
However, there are many people objecting to such a partnership, especially within the Fatah. They prefer to let Hamas wallow in the quagmire of government, in order to prove that the Hamas diplomatic and political plans are unachievable. In the meantime, political purging is expected within Fatah, and calls for the holding of a sixth general Fatah conference (the fifth was held in 1989) are expected to be heard. Barghouti declared several days ago that the conference would be held this summer, but in light of the election results, the conference would probably convene earlier.
Regarding the Hamas, it is still early to determine whether the organizations will turn into a political party following its election victory. Hamas is still committed officially to the truce (tahadiya), but in recent weeks Hamas leaders have made contradictory statements regarding the renewal of terror attacks and its armed struggle, and regarding recognizing Israel or negotiating with it. The contradictory statements reflect Hamas' internal dispute on the issue, but it seems that due to its desire to cooperate with Fatah and reach agreements with the international community to secure continued aid, it is reasonable to assume that the calm would continue in the near future.
A central point of contention in such an event would be the security forces, who are in theory subordinate to the government through the Interior Ministry, but in practice have been ruled directly by the PA chairman since the PA?s establishment.
Another possible situation is that Abbas would resign and new elections for PA chairman would take place within 60 days, during which the parliament chairman will temporarily replace the PA Chairman.
One of the most important factors affecting events in the Palestinian Authority are the positions of the international community and the Arab states following the Hamas victory. The central question is whether these countries would continue offering financial aid to the PA. The United States, for example, cannot have contacts with Hamas due to its laws which define Hamas as a terror group. The European Union will also have to find a formula under which it would be able to continue PA aid.
On the Palestinian domestic front, the central question relates to the ability of Fatah and Hamas to cooperate. Both parties have already expressed positive intentions to that end. It is of no coincidence that Marwan Barghouti, who heads the Fatah list, preferred to address the general voting public and not only Fatah supporters in his recent interviews - he may have anticipated the Fatah's defeat and preferred to present himself as a leader of all Palestinians . It is neither coincidental that Hamas members frequently used the word 'partnership? in their declarations Thursday morning.
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This story is by: Arnon Regular, Haaretz Correspondent
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I hope and pray the IDF continues assassinating Hamas leaders.
How long can these people not get it???
Elections in Palestine showed an outstanding political maturity by the Palestinian people and defied the stereotypes imposed on them by Israel and the U.S. The results of Hamas landslide are natural due to the extremely hard condition that the Palestinians must endure in their daily lives due to the illegal Israeli occupation and its social and economic implications. The Israeli occupation sponsored and supported by unlimited U.S military aid makes it impossible for the Palestinians to live with dignity and exercising their natural and human rights. There was no peace process in place due to the consistent Israeli policies of settlements and land grab through the building of the apartheid wall or illegal confiscations. Palestinians today have absolutely no guaranteed rights to their land, water or airspace in violation of international laws and the forth Geneva Conventions. The Palestinian leadership over the last three decades made many land and political concessions to Israel and several peace gestures and was awarded nothing but destruction of its facilities and the infrastructure of the Palestinian civil society. The world community for the sake of peace and justice should compel Israel to withdraw immediately all its troops and settlers from all occupied Palestinian land. Additionally, the world community should vigorously enforce the implementation of United Nations resolutions concerning the Palestinian refugees.
Anyone who thinks that Hamas will now have to act, or may indeed act, responsibly, is deluded. The same was said of Arafat when he was brought back from Tunis. It never happened. He stayed a terrorist. So will Hamas. The only "good" that may come of this is the good that Israel will have to make of it -- but it will cost in blood and wasted lives.
All this was forseeable, all this had happened, alas, forehand. It was Likud who put Arafat as a political sparring partner. It was Ha'Avoda who had to deal with that choice. It was Rabin who, alas, had paid the consequences and it was Barak who hightened the stake only harvesting wrath. It was Sharon, then, who pulled the right trigger- and he pulled it even twice when he shed from Likud. The harvest of all this is not dismay, nor is it deception. The harvest is sheer clarity. Sheer and crystal clarity. None of us, nor of the Palestinians exactly know what drove phantomatic Fatma Shuqueiri, a Jenin housewife. mother of four, to opt for Hamas, although all of us can be empathic enough to guess. A decade of Al-Fatah mafiosism had made her opt what she personally and erroneously thinks is an escape vote. We all have to deal with as we all have to deal with the national security urgencies springing from that issue. I would suggest hitting Sharon's road with more circumspection
This is the point. They write 3 or 4 articles, if Hamas wins big, if it is tied, if Fatah wins, if they cannot finish the elections...Anyway because of diversity, it's the best newspaper in the world. I would like to see Arab newspapers or at list Western ones having articles written by people who oppose radically in their point of view
He travelled the world feining peace and for this got billions of dollar$ and lots of power and perks. He made himself and his cronies rich, set his cover-up "wife" with millions for life, got to sleep in the White House 17 times, shook the hand of the Pope, got the red carpet treament all over Europe, set up an Israeli for an assasination, helped build the terror infrastructure inside Israel and got the Nobel Peace Prize. Fasten your seat belts for phase II. Bush & Rice, desperate to put a Hollywood spin on Palestinian "democracy" is begging Arafats stooge, Abbas, to stay in the game to keep up phase I. But phase II belongs to the Muslim Brotherhood and Iran.
Will Hamas dismantle the other terrorist organizations?
Perhaps it is a blessing in disguise. Hamas is in a better position than Fatah to make concessions to Israel because Hamas' anti-Israel creditials cannot be challenged by fellow Palestinians. Any concession Hamas makes will be supported by the Pals. Sort of like in America how it took a hawk like Nixon to sign the SALT agreement with Russia and also to travel to China. If a Democrat did that, people would have accused him of being soft on Communism.
I know they declared a truce in March last year but so what, they continued their attacks and murdered a good number of Israelis. What do they call a truce? Israel didn't committed itself to a truce. It was Hamas who did but, I said, they continued to murder people. And Hamas hunted terrorists down. So what's the point?
All the pundits and "experts" tried to read all kinds of things into what happened. In the end, all their analysis was a waste of time and the killer went free. The Palestinians will be taken over by Hamas just like Germany was romped by the Nazis. The Palestinians, craving discipline, law & order, nationalism, and economic hope will celebrate in the begining. But when the Muslim Brotherhood and the Ayatollas call the shots it will be too late to reverse the fascist military state. Israel must prepare for war. A war that will be launched from civilian enclaves. This time the world sees the true, ski masked, face of the Palestinians instead of the smiling mask of Arafat and Abbas.
I just hope that our leaders will not find a new formula to justify negotations with a terrorist group that have an agenda that call for full extermination of Israel a jews, as always they found. Seems that for our politicians, citizens are not more that disposable items...I will never agree to talks with a terrorist group, not matter what.
Do you get your news from the spineless news reporters from Europe who are invited down by the PA and are all on PA's payroll?? Kim UP THE WALL is doing a great job and has told more truths regarding ME than Reuters, AP and the rest of them all together............
Kim.. you reaaally need to get ur facts straight right about now. Hamas has flawlessly observed a 12-month truce with Israel.. with only Two attacks on Israeli territories, both of which were in response to israeli incursions against hamas. I guess Israel has the right to violate the ceasefire because hamas militants are members of a terrorist organizations, and the mini-satans enlisted in the IDF are not reprehensible for their violations. Truth is, Israel has violated the truce far too many times.. and whether it wants to accept it or not... its counterpart...is Hamas.
A Blessing in disguise: Much has been made of the apparent Hamas victory over Fattah. The rise of Hamas to power maybe a blessing in disguise for Israel. Hamas was running a popularity contest with Fattah all these years, while pretending to resist the occupation. The organization engaged in terror activities only to discredit Fattah. Hamas fired Kassams toward Israel knowing too well that these projectiles amounted to little more than fire crackers, with the sole purpose of drawing fire from Israel. Hamas succeeded in portraying the PA as a dysfunctional aging body. Hamas pattern of Jekyll and Hide convinced the Palestinians of the PA?s impotence and its inability to protect against Israeli attacks. This is the way Hamas has played a dirty game in building its constituency. Now the show is over. Hamas, in charge, can no longer blame Fattah or anyone else. According to this theory, we will see a significant decrease in terror attacks. Now that Hamas has to face the music of the real world we may even see a new moderation in its posture. I would not be surprised if Hamas renounced terror and recognized the right of Israel to exist. Didn?t the PLO change its charter and embrace peace negotiations with Israel?
From what I have read about the electoral campaign, Hamas statements are not contradictory. They will use their political position and also terrorism.
Thank you Israel and the U.S. of Arrogance for empowering Hamas. Now DEAL with it. If Israel truly gave a damn about its own people, not so much Palestinians because the world knows Israelis don't give a damn what happens to the Palestinians, they would have taken steps to strengthen Abu Mazen in every way possible and not have allowed this to happen. A win for Hamas means Palestinians got sick and tired of PA's corruption. I am sorry to say that neither the Bush Administration nor the Israelis did much to help Abu Mazen in this case. This gives the Israelis and the Americans the perfect excuse to not want negotiate with Hamas. We will be hearing "Hamas must renounce violence and recognize the state of Israel," forever. George Bush is incapable of forming a more intelligent sentence. Maybe now the Israelis will wake up to the realization that something needs to be done and this means dealing with Hamas, whether the Israelis or Americans like it or not.
?Hamas is still committed officially to the truce (tahadiya),? Hamas has not respected the truce they declared. They have not stopped attacking Israel. And since the declaration they have committed several terror attacks and murdered Israelis.
Now that Hamas has an address, they are probably more willing to moderate their agenda and come to a diplomatic agreement with Israel. After gaining popular support they will want to keep the international aid coming. If not Israel has the means at hand to re-occupy what they recently left and the clock will be turned back to Arafat time.
The Europeans don?t need to find a formula. They have it: not to deal with terrorist organizations. So they only thing they have to do is stop financing the PA. And this is the compromise the EU officially declared. I, a European citizen, don?t want my taxes to finance terrorism.
what does it take to write an analysis column in haaretz? haven't we just yesterday read a few brilliant analyses which were proven absolutely wrong in a matter of less than 24 hours?