ANALYSIS / General elections are Gilad Shalit's greatest hope

There has been some behind-the-scenes movement in recent weeks in the negotiations over Gilad Shalit's release, and Israel is now awaiting Hamas' response to its latest proposal. Surprisingly, it seems that the upcoming Knesset elections have provided the main spur for greater flexibility in Israel's stance.

This is primarily because Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, who must make the final decision, is not running for reelection. Instead, he is busy trying to create a legacy that will not only cause him to be remembered in the history books, but might also provide a springboard for his eventual return to politics.

Even if Olmert succeeds in emerging unscathed from the numerous police investigations against him - a necessary precursor to a political comeback - he will still be haunted by the two major failures of his term as premier: the Second Lebanon War and Shalit's abduction. Admittedly, the Israeli public has a short memory, and the Winograd Committee's final report on the war somewhat blurred his responsibility for it. But as long as Shalit remains in Gaza, that account will remain open against Olmert. And should Shalit die, or should contact with him be severed, that would prove a serious obstacle to an Olmert comeback.

Neither of Olmert's likely successors, Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni and opposition leader Benjamin Netanyahu, have said much about the Shalit deal publicly, and when they are forced to speak, they confine themselves to vague generalities. Nevertheless, it seems likely that each would rather have Shalit brought home before he or she takes office. Netanyahu even hinted as much in his speech to the Knesset on October 27.

Would Netanyahu go so far as to give the government a "safety net" should it choose to free hundreds of murderers in exchange for Shalit? That would contradict all of the Likud leader's past declarations on the subject. Yet at the same time, there is a significant benefit for Netanyahu in having Olmert, rather than him, be the one who actually makes this concession.

Defense Minister Ehud Barak's position on the matter also carries weight. In closed forums, Barak has recently been increasingly outspoken about the need for "painful concessions" to get Shalit back, and he has said that the current combination of an impending election and relative quiet on the Gaza border provide the best possible opportunity for concluding a deal. Should Barak and Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff Gabi Ashkenazi go public with such sentiments, that might help to counter the Shin Bet security service's opposition to the deal.