ANALYSIS: Al-Zarqawi's death more important than bin Laden's
Zarqawi's assassination is operationally significant because he is responsible for the most casualties.
By Yossi Melman and Haaretz CorrespondentWith respect to America's global war on terror, the assassination of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi Thursday is even more significant than the assassination of Osama bin Laden would be. Zarqawi is the terrorist responsible for the greatest number of casualties in recent years, and therefore, his liquidation has operational significance. Bin Laden's liquidation would have only moral significance.
The Americans, like Israel, know that cutting off "the head of the snake" will not end terrorism. Over the past decade, the United States has laid hands on several al-Qaida "operations officers" - Yousef Ramzi, Sheikh Khaled Mohammed, Hambali of Indonesia and others; but their places were quickly taken by others no less daring and determined.
Zarqawi headed only one of several radical Sunni organizations, and his assassination will not affect the activities of the others. In any case, the terror attacks that have occurred since September 11, 2001, have pointed to a growing "atomization" of Jihadist networks: Local cells are operating independently. They may draw inspiration from figures like bin Laden or Zarqawi, but they have no organizational connection.
This process of atomization will make it even more difficult for the Americans and others to acquire intelligence on such networks and foil their plans. All the experts say that even though Zarqawi's death was a blow to morale for global Jihad, the struggle in Iraq will continue as long as the coalition forces remain there.
Reuven Paz, an expert in radical Islam, noted that Zarqawi's status in Iraq might have been waning over the past year anyway, due to his decision to wage a sectarian war against the Shi'ites. This may also have been what enabled the Americans to obtain information about his whereabouts and thus carry out the liquidation. Paz now predicts revenge attacks in the name of bin Laden and his deputy, Ayman al-Zawahiri, who will want to prove that the death of one of their most prominent adherents has not put them out of operation.
Over the past two years, Zarqawi has become the leading symbol of the struggle in Iraq, in the eyes of both the Americans and millions of Muslim admirers. But more than being a symbol, he was the world's most effective active terrorist, thanks to his organizational abilities, his ability to recruit devoted followers, and, primarily, his cruelty, which gave him the image of someone who stood boldly against the U.S. occupation of Iraq and the West in general.
His status was also strengthened by the fact that Zawahiri and bin Laden have largely ceased operations, due to the determined U.S. pursuit, their distance from the main front, and also failing health perhaps. In effect, over the last two years, Zarqawi became a leader in his own right, and even challenged their leadership. For instance, he did not hesitate to carry out attacks against Shi'ites, despite their opposition.
There are even radical Islamist Web sites that viewed him as the "emir" of the entire Middle East. This was in part because of his efforts to extend the battle to other parts of the Middle East by setting up cells in Lebanon, Jordan, Syria, Sinai and - less successfully, thus far - the Palestinian Authority.
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The Iraqi press is "all Al-Zarqawi, all the time" today. The outstanding thing about the celebration is that it is universal. Shiite, Sunni, Kurds, they all seem delighted to have him gone. For that matter, so am I.
"you said Zarqawi was opposed by most the Sunni insurrection, my question is why?" - Omar He was murdering Iraqi's and they felt he was undermining their support. The Sunni insurrection, composed of over a dozen major organizations and dozens of smaller ones, has had several primary targets. 1. The US forces in Iraq. 2. The forces of the Shiite controlled government. 3. The infrastructure which that government needs. Al-Zarqawi's objective was to start a civil war which would totally destabilize Iraq and create a permissive environment for Al-Queada in Iraq. Thus Al-Zarqawi's focus was upon mass murder of Shiites in Baghdad and elsewhere. As the population of Baghdad is mixed, he was also murdering Sunni. Reports of fire-fights between Sunni insurgents and Al-Queada in Iraq have been common for a year. You must understand that there are a number of 'insurgencies' in Iraq. The only one which was not 'nationalistic' in nature was the foreigners of Al-Queada in Iraq.
"A major victory then for the Americans in Iraq." - Yoram A welcome tactical success. Not a victory. The 'glow' will ebb when the bombings continue. Al Queada in Iraq's brigades and cells are well compartmentalized and though one brigade has been badly damaged, the organization is alive and, alas, well.
This whole approach derives from a deeply patronising and completely inaccurate British colonial concept, namely, that 'the natives' are basically good-natured, placid people, except when stirred up by 'troublemakers'. Therefore one simply has to eliminate these latter, and 'the natives' will return to their natural acquiescent stance.
Hey there Mark, i bet the weather in Sugar Land is hotter than Houston? Scorching summer days. Anyways i just had a question, you said Zarqawi was opposed by most the Sunni insurrection, my question is why?
US has actually given a favor to Al Qaida. Zarqawi was a renegade in Al Qaida for a quite sometimes. Al Zawahiri (second in command of Al Qaeda) had reminded Zarqawi last year, that he had gone too far in Iraq, for undiscriminate killing of civilians. I think he had being sold out by Al Qaeda, and US had eaten that bait.
"Iran is against Al-Qaida" and therefore Iran couldn't have been against Zerqawi.. And we're told Zerqawi was Al-Qaida.Lincoln alone knows better. "Zerqawi was opposed by Shiites " And I thought Iran was Shiite .Again Lincoln kbows. Quite besides the fact that in order to preserve nukes Iran could betray much more important goons than Zerqawi,him being a friend or a foe.
Because those who are killing today could be killed tomorrow. Do not forget that they are like you and me human beings. If you are strong today at the point of justifiying other's killing, you have to remember that 60 years ago some people were justifiying too their killings. The killing is coward and ...easy. Changing the mind of people, convincing is more difficult. Do forget that when people feel like slaves in their own country they will take revenge one day or another. They are human beings. They have a long memory. They know what history is. And what history will be. I'm not defending anyone. The nazis were arrogants. Where are they today?
Gentlemen: I have observed the many comments abt the "elimination" of al-zarquari in Iraq and also within the Middle East. The few comments that I have is that terrorism in the Middle East will not decrease. I can forsee that the minority of "educated" arabs want NOTHING TO DO with the"Palestinian state because they see little opportunity 4 that "independent" state 2 survive! The question(s) are the Palestinians willing or able 2 support an independent state with minimal bases- That is an interesting question-- How can any independent state survive with a minimal economic and a political base too? Part of the answer is access 2 education-and remove the bias from the schools and "religion" for all. That might enable some 2 reach the goal of education!!!
Absolute, you have the most mindless conspiracy based mind outside the Arab world. Iran is in tight with the Shiite government of Iraq. Iran is an enemy of Al-Queda. The information appears to have come from Jordan, or perhaps someone close to Zarawi. The guy was opposed not only by the Coalition, but most of the Sunni insurrection and all of the Shiite militias. Bush submitted to his total failure to sell not only the world, but even the officer corps of the US on his idiotic dream of a war against Iran. The crisis he fomented will be resolved by a return to the status quo anti - the enhanced IAEA safeguards and inspections prevailing last December and a face-saving degree of enrichment by Iran.
Right on the money, US is caving in to Iran and Bush hopes another president after him will deal wiht Iran, SO THEY STRIKE A DEAL and al-Zarqawi is a scape-gote for a larger capitulation.
The mistake was creating a cult of personality about Al-Zarqawi. His death is a major blow to both morale and perception of the future success of the insurgency. A major victory then for the Americans in Iraq.
enrichment? Because the propsals to Iran are nothing else than giving this country an opportunity to solve technical problems still hampering the full scale nuke development and getting "incentives" at the same time.
It is great that the US whacked al-Zarqawi. Looks like a solidly conducted intelligence operation followed by a well organized military action worked to everyone's satisfaction. More important in many ways were the series of over a dozen raids on Al-Quaeda in Iraq cells which yielded a great deal of information. Now, all celebration aside. Al-Queada style organizations are highly compartmentalized, with independent cells capable of independent action. It is hard to say exactly what percent of the organization was compromised last night. Somewhere between 7 and 10 percent is a solid guess based upon reported arrests and estimates of the organizations size. Clearly it was still capable of significant actions in Baghdad in response. The greatest mistake anyone can make at this point is to raise expectations that this is a knock out blow. It isn't, and it can't be. At least it shows that finally the US is catching on to the nature of asymmetrical warfare.
It's like you all are living in another world or maybe you are all paid by the Hasbara Department for promote Israel no matter what. al-Zarqawi wasn't responsible for even 1% of what the US claimed he was. It was the US way of promoting Al-Qaida to come to Iraq and not attack US interest or citizens elsewhere. Thus the US created al-Zarqawi. They started up by calling him a "one legged Palestinian" and then all of a sudden got a bright idea. Let's make him into a "major Al-Qaida leader" and blame it all on him. The fact is that the insurgency has been over for month and a civil war is rageing. His death doesn't matter one bit, but to his family.Sunni clans are fighting the "Shiite police and security services". It's Iraqi against Iraqi and the US don't know where to turn. Bigger than Ossama, get real.