Amos Harel / What North Korea's missile means for Israel and Iran

Although world intelligence agencies have assessed that North Korea's satellite launch on Sunday was a failure, it must still be seen as a bold provocation by Pyongyang, directed at the United States.

North Korea defied the Obama administration, while ignoring an explicit United Nations security council ban and Washington's preliminary warnings.

While the American president reacted acridly, he has not taken substantial action.

North Korea has endured sanctions for years - and yet it still launched the rocket on Sunday, so continuing its convoluted tango with the international community: one step forward, two backwards, repeat.

This is Barak Obama's first international test as U.S. president, one expected to take much of his time, despite the understandable priority he has given to battling the financial crisis both on the home-front and abroad.

Iran is sure to track U.S. behavior in the wake of this affair with special interest.

In a few months' time, Washington is expected to commence its diplomatic dialogue with Teheran, ultimately aiming to impede Iran's contentious nuclear program.

Obama has already committed to this dialogue, regardless of developments with North Korea. But if he is soft with Pyongyang - if the Iranians get the impression that the new president is not hard enough or experienced enough as a negotiator - Tehran could reach troubling conclusions.

A little less than a year ago, Israel harbored a false hope that the United States would bomb Iranian nuclear sites or even give Israel a green light to act in its stead.

That did not happen with the Bush administration. On George Bush's last visit to Israel in May, he even went so far as to clarify that the U.S. traffic light remains bright red.

A similar message, one may assume, was also passed on during talks between U.S. Joint Chief of Staff Admiral Mike Mullen and his counterpart Gabi Ashkenazi on the sidelines of last weekend's NATO conferrence.

Israel's defense establishment now estimates that the prospect of Obama agreeing to such an attack are even slimmer.

The North Korea-Iran tie is deeper. Dr. Ephraim Kam, deputy director of The Institute for National Security Studies, says that the Iranian missile program relies on Pyongyang technology and know-how.

When North Korea launches a rocket, one which could in the future carry a ton of explosives across 6,000 kilometers, it is assumed that Iran is just a few steps behind.

Tal Inbar, director of the space division of the The Fisher Brothers Institute for Air and Space Strategic Studies, explains that there is just one rocket technology being tested - not two.

The ability to launch a satellite, he says, is relevant to launching a long rage ballistic rocket. No country is successful in its first try, he adds, and some even fail the second time around.

	South Koreans watch footage of a North Korean 1998 missile launch, in Seoul railway station on Sunday.
	Photo by: (Reuters)