Zvi Bar'el

Apparently, the Palestinians are a nation endowed with a very short memory. The demolition of houses did not prevent the first intifada, nor the second, nor the plethora of murderous terror attacks that occurred between the two.

Apparently, the recognition that it is impossible to remove Arafat from the political arena without also removing him from this world is penetrating even the minds of the decision makers in Israel.

Even when the character of the activity is similar, the agenda of the PA and the Islamic organizations is different. The effect of viewing them as part of the same entity and placing all the responsibility on Arafat - even for the attacks carried out by Hamas and Islamic Jihad - has been to give these two organizations a senior status in the conduct of any political process.

Turkey does not recognize minority groups, and any act or statement that is liable to put a dent in those regulations constitutes a criminal offense punishable by a lengthy prison term.

Real-estate nationalism in this country has found itself a tattered target: The Bedouin in the Negev are again invading state lands (Israel Harel, "Democracy is (not above) existence," Ha'aretz, July 11). They are seizing every square inch of land they can get their hands on, they are plundering the state's land reserves and they have the effrontery, these cheats, to return to land for which they have already been compensated in the past.

The existence of Arafat ensures there will be no change in Israeli policy. All that's left to do is to wish the Palestinian leader good health and continued political stability. Without him we may yet have to figure out how to resolve the conflict.

Egyptian President Mubarak doesn't have to speak his mind about the plan outlined by U.S. President Bush in his policy speech last week. His press has already done it for him and, chorus-like, supports the plan "with reservations."

"Suicide terror does not endanger only Israel," says an Egyptian journalist, "but also Egypt and the Arab states. What will we do if it turns out that they succeed in changing Israel's policy?"

A managed threat is a comfortable situation for a superpower that is not interested in utilizing its global deterrent power in the form of military or diplomatic pressure to resolve a crisis. A managed threat, as distinct from a crisis, does not erode the superpower's prestige.

The reason a fence is needed between Israel and Palestine is that an independent state, based on one nation and aspiring to cultural hegemony - more or less - needs a border.

The Iranian Shihab missile threat comes wrapped with a fundamentalist religious state, some of whose leaders believe that Israel has no right to exist. And as in any crime story, there is a weapon and there are motives, so now is the time for all good people to be afraid.

A permanent temporary situation is beginning to take root in the region: a terrorist attack here and there, the reconquest of the territories and, above all, policy idleness.

The illustrious Egyptian soccer team Zamalek recently suffered a colossal defeat at the hands (or rather, feet) of the rival Egyptian team, Alahli, 6:1. The Palestinian problem? The Saudi initiative? The Jenin massacre? These are the catastrophes of others, kid's stuff compared to Zamalek.

The demand for reforms within the Palestinian Authority will lead to a new, strengthened Palestinian leader at the end of the elections: Yasser Arafat. No government in the world will then be able to question the validity of his status.

Supporting Sharon's demand for democratization in order to rule out totally the possibility that a democratic Palestinian state will be established is too convenient by half. No one disputes the fact that for Sharon it makes no difference whether a tsar or a youth council rules the Palestinian Authority.

Yasser Arafat went free on Thursday and left the Palestinians in Israel's hands. Because, with the whole army in the territories, it is no longer possible to distinguish who is really imposing a closure on whom.

The Israeli union of performing artists (EMI), the court for offenses against state security in Turkey and the association of journalists and writers in Egypt could have signed a twin-brains agreement.

The Saudi, Egyptian and Jordanian leaders find themselves genuinely threatened, worried about their own survival, and horrified that the boiling Arab street might force them to take actions contrary to their national interests.

Since the launch of the recent, massive wave of terrorist incidents, Palestinian Authority Chairman Yasser Arafat has been urged to denounce terror attacks and clearly declare his intentions in Arabic.

For the Europeans, the present situation as an opportunity to end the American monopoly on the Middle East conflict. In the blackest scenario, the European countries could decide that if the Americans can impose sanctions on European countries that do business with Iran, then why can't they impose sanctions on American companies that do business with Israel.

"The tanks deal is an open wound," said the deputy chairman of Turkey's Islamist Justice and Development Party, Abdullah Gul. He was referring to Ankara's decision to have tanks upgraded in Israel in a $700 million deal.

Arab leaders who spoke at length at the Arab League summit last week about the suffering of the Palestinian people devoted little or no time in their speeches to the process in which Yasser Arafat is fading away as a leader.

Every colonialist is certain that he knows something that his predecessor did not know, or at least that the enemy he is facing is "something else": weaker, stupider or fragmented to the point of self-liquidation. The Israeli perception of the Palestinians is no different: it holds that more war will bring more victories.

Once, Hezbollah could dictate ideology to the Lebanese government, which was forced to give it a free hand. Now it is a dangerous burden, which, with one incautious step, could topple the revitalized Lebanese economy and cause more than $3 billion in lost revenue for the Syrians.

Ut looks as if Israel keeps Arafat from attending the Arab summit meeting, his empty chair will oblige the participants to make some sort of political gesture toward the PA- further compensation for the political, in addition to the human, suffering the Palestinians are enduring.