This is utter nonsense. Right after the kidnapping people inside Lebanon were already fearing the Israeli response. You can see this for yourself if go back to the July 12 entry of weblogs kept by Lebanese on the Internet. Maybe Nasrallah wasn't sure whether he had provoked Israel strongly enough this time but at least he knew he was taking a great risk of plunging Lebanon into war, or at least south Lebanon. Here are the reasons why he knew this: 1- Sooner or later, Israel ALWAYS strikes back fiercely. At the moment of the kidnapping, Israel had been excercising restraint for already 6 years; Nasrallah knew the time of restraint would be over some day. 2- Nasrallah knew the Israeli response to the kidnapping of ONE Israeli soldier 2 weeks earlier in Gaza. 3- Olmert still had to prove himself a worthy successor of Sharon. 4- Already on the first day of the war, Hezbollah fired missiles on Haifa, showing off their new weaponry instead of trying to de-escalate.
EU's Tusk warns Turkey to cut refugee flow (Reuters)