The probability of the latter is, in my opinion, about the same as the probability of Israel retaining illegal settlements and occupied East Jerusalem when a unilateral declaration goes through the UN. Percentage wise speaking those two are hovering around zero. As a result the likelihood of a far more stable ME, which is the only goal of the Obama administration in that region, is very close to one hundred percent.
4 UN peacekeepers injured in Sinai and taken to hospital in south Israel (Haaretz)
from the article: Expectations low as world powers begin nuclear talks with Iran