As much as i don't like Moshe Arens he's most likely right. As a secular Leb, the reason for my pessimism is based on the fact that the current and overthrown dictators of the middle east never allowed any organized oppostion parties to exist. The only parties that exist and not by choice of the current dictators are islamist based cause they organize out of the mosques and no dictator will dare challenge them directly until now. The West and Isreal openly support these current revolutions for short term gains in a attempt to isolate iran but in reality are only planting the seeds of future conflict. I see nothing but pain and suffering in the middle east for another generation to come.
Report: Iran's Culture Ministry refuses to allow Barenboim to perform in Tehran (DPA)
from the article: Arab Spring will just bring upon Islamist dictatorships