In 1905, the Swedish intelligence where "100% sure" that a Norwegian referendum about independence would result in a yes to stay with Sweden. Then the people voted like 2 miljon for independence and 3-400 hundred(!) to stay in union with Sweden. That might have been the least competent prediciton in modern time...
Sinai bomb attack could have targeted peacekeepers, official says (AP)
from the article: The Egyptian masses won't play ally to Israel