Toynbee was talking about civilizations, and the examples he gave referred to countries, with territories, laws, armies, and problems. The Jewish people might have had all that, except the territory. So, if we want to study Toynbee's apreciation about the Jewish people, the true object of the analysis should be the state of Israel itself, and not the Jews in history. And, in this perspective, we need to wait quite a long time before knowing the truth about Toynbee's diagnosis.
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U.S. regains Hellfire air-to-ground missile from Cuba (Reuters)
from the article: This is how we ruined Toynbee's theory