I despair of posts like yours. You may well disagree with Toynbee, but since he has been one of the most renowned historians of the last 100 years, authores one of the most noteworthy publications on the subject, and is known to literate persons throughout the English-speaking world, your statement that you have never heard of him speaks loudly of your exducation - loudly and unfavorably.
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Russia proposes March 1 ceasefire in Syria, Western official says (Reuters)
from the article: This is how we ruined Toynbee's theory