In 1990 US intelligence concluded incorrectly that Iraq was not close to acquiring The Bomb, and in 2003 they believed the reverse, that Iraq may have an advanced nuclear program, which also proved false, albeit have the opposite viewpoint. These so-called intelligence experts don't have any direct access to the Iranian nuclear program, which means they're just guessing, like everyone else. Past intelligence estimates have been driven by little more than political expediency, and its entirely possible that this latest assessment is intended to dampen the sense of urgency, and provide the US military with a ready excuse to avoid confrontation with Iran, which is something they are obviously seeking to avoid.
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Assailant attempts to shoot prominent Turkish journalist on trial for spying charges (Reuters)
from the article: U.S.: Iran halted nuclear weapons development in 2003