the cards have already been laid out. hezbollah will try to start a war to make any 'proper' outcome of the special tribunal for lebanon impossible. either this war will be started before the special tribunal releases its findings, or immediately after. this way, when the findings are released, lebanon will be reeling or in the midst of yet another conflict and in no condition to bear a confrontation within itself over the results of the tribunal. hezbollah believes it can survive yet another war with israel and emerge just as strong as before (it has experience to back it up), but is not sure it can survive being 'indicted' for hariri's murder. will israel be dragged into another war? only if it fails to appreciate fully what is going on in lebanon.
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from the article: U.S.: Iran's actions compromise Lebanon's sovereignty