Mr. Strenger, you seem to be stronger on theory than on reality. The people who only do theories develop too much trust in them. This also explains your overly certain prediction that the peace talks are "sure" to fail. You must allow the possibility that some progress will be made. After all, Netanyahu himself is neither Ya'alon nor Arad. He is also more susceptible to pressure, from the US as well as Labor. But even if we ASSUME (as you should have done) that the talks fail, here is another scenario, based on some actual experience: The US and EU apply some financial and other sanctions on Israel, the Israelis wake up to the situation, Labor quits the government and it falls, and in the new elections Kadima wins. Such a scenario, more or less, took place with the Shamir government, and Rabin came to power. You can learn from the past even if you cannot predict the future with certainty.
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