Quiet for the next few months - Comment - Israel News | Haaretz Daily Newspaper
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    • Tosefta
    • 19.08.07 | 16:19 (IDT)

    "Two friendly Arab countries have told Israel that Syria is not planning to attack in the COMING MONTHS." - Haaretz They are not lying, these two friendly countries, but don't count on quiet continuing for more than a year or two, no more. Israel is worried about an attack by Syria, and for a good reason. Israel remembers why and how the 1973 Yom Kippur war was launched by countries that Israel estimated had no military option. Sadat made a number of diplomatic attempts to get back the Sinai, but was rejected by Golda. He finally went to war, but with an unusual goal in mind: Just have a small gain and cause the status quo to crumble so that Israelis start thinking again. Sadat's goal was only to gain control over a narrow strip, up to 20 km wide, along the Canal. Such a strip was "covered" by anti-air missiles located west of the canal. An Israeli counteroffensive could be rebuffed by anti-tank missiles. This plan indeed worked for quiet a while. There is no reason why the Syrians should not be thinking along similar lines. Syria is getting it air defenses, which according to the Russians, can handle any Israeli plane. And it learned from Hizballah the effectiveness of anti-tank missiles. A surprise attack on the Golan can lead to quick victory, after which common sense will return to Israeli minds. Notice that Hizballah and Iran will also be there to offer military support. The time frame for this scenario is no more than two years. Israel is about to buy stealth fighter bombers which will be invisible to radar. In addition, Israel is quickly developing an anti-rocket system which will check the Hizballah threat. The sad thing of it all is that if Assad falls and a "democratic regime" (like in Iraq) replaces it, they will demand the Golan and the world will support them. Israel can come to its senses without a war, but this seems unlikely.

    from the article: Senior Arab officials tell Israel that Syria is not planning to attack
    First published 00:00 19.08.07 | Last updated 00:00 19.08.07
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