In this missile age, the only real deterrent is not anti-missiles, but the ability to destroy the launch sites and those who command them. The leaders of Hezbo, Syria, and Iran must know that they will be the targets of a massive retaliatory strike. First, anti-missiles are far from fool proof. They can and do miss their targets on a frequent basis. In a best case scenario, with an anti-missile for every missile, only half of them will reach their targets. Of the half that reach their target, some of these missiles will not be annihilated but instead be knocked off course and still explode on impact. Of these deflected missiles which hit the ground and don't explode you will still have potentially hundred of pounds of metal causing considerable kinetic damage on impact. Second, a deluge of missiles (hundreds in the air at one time) will overwhelm the radar and detection systems used by the anti-missiles. The detection system will also have problems distinguishing larger payload missiles from smaller ones in a deluge attack. A coordinated missile attack (which is exactly what Hezbo and Syrian are training to accomplish) will result in a higher percentage of missiles reaching their targets and more large warhead missiles also impacting. Third, anti-missile systems are still vital because they offer the best chance to protect Israel's air bases. If the air bases are knocked out then Israel loses its' best means of counter-attack and retaliation against the missile launch sites and command centers. The priority for anti-missile batteries must therefore be to protect the IDF first and civilians second. The bitter reality is that with existing air raid shelters civilian losses will be higher than in any other war and are likely to surpass all the other wars combined. Top priority for civilian defense must be more and stronger shelters. Finally, if a missile war erupts a significant part of the IAF must be allocated to the destruction of command and control structures, especially leadership bunkers. This will seriously degrade the ability to stop the initial waves of attacks but have the greatest long term capability of stopping the launches. Only by killing those who give the orders can Israel ever hope to stop the barrage.
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from the article: Missile defense systems won't protect Israel