"Even if the Arrow only has a 50% chance of stopping all attacking missiles, or just a 30% chance, even that is of great value." - nacl Mr. Salt, (NaCl) you have it right. If Iran launched an attack with only a 30% probability of success - or for that matter, a 100% chance - it would suffer intense retaliation which would bring down the regime. "Does one expose one`s country to a 50% chance, or even just a one in ten chance, of ceasing to exist? " - nacl No sane individual would expose their nation to even a small chance of ceasing to exist. There is nothing we can do about insanity, but so far there has only been one (or possibly none) world leader with control of nuclear weapons who was insane. Best bet for keeping Iran from becoming a nuclear power: 1. Get Iraq back under the enhanced regimens of safeguards and inspections in force before the United States invented the current crisis. 2. Keep Iran under the normal IAEA regimen of inspections and safeguards.
Two mortar shells explode in Golan Heights, no casualties or damage reported (Haaretz)
from the article: An alibi for the Arrow