John, Your analysis is correct except for one point. Hezbollah is emerging stronger in Lebanese politics than it was before the crisis because it is being perceived as the only force that is resisting the external attacker (Israel). Walid Jumblatt in a recent interview [ublished in the Wall Street Journal indicated that there are three ways to disarm Hezbollah 1) Occupy the all of Lebanon, put a multinational force to guard the entirety of the Lebanese-Syrian border, or regime change in Syria. He also went on to say that after the end of the conflict there is a real fear that those who supported Lebanese independence at the expense of Syria and were consequntly at odds with Hezbollah face possible reprisals and assasinations. Thus Lebanon has the real risk of becoming an Islamic "democracy" as a result of this conflict.
CNN Turk: Turkish planes hit PKK targets in southeastern Turkey, northern Iraq (Reuters)
from the article: ANALYSIS: The moment of truth for the Bush administration