There are a few more critical assumptions to add to yours. 1- Iran assumes the US will not attack Iran because Iran will attack Israel with missles. 2 Even if the US decides to invade Iran, the iranian government is betting it can arm the Iraqi resistsnce to the point where they can be as potent as Hizbouallah in Lebanon. Not to mention Iran's ability to move the Iraqi shities against the US. 3- Thirdly, Iran is also betting on the Western fear that any attack on Iran will trigger an Iranian retallition against Western oil interets in the region that can cripple the flow of oil and undermine major world economies. As you can see, Iran has a few powerful cards to play.
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from the article: ANALYSIS: Iran likely to push the boundaries of nuclear issue