Iran has overplayed its hand and now realizes it has made itself an explicit US nuclear target. It has nothing in its defense umbrella right now to deter a major conventional attack, much less a sophisticated strike. Khamenei is a more cautious man than the cartoon Ahmedinejad. Obama's nuclear posture announcement surprised Khamenei and those around him. If you analyze this as a strategic game, nuclear pursuit just made Iran more vulnerable. If it tests a nuclear device, it now must weigh the possibility of nuclear retaliation from America if it responds to a pre-emotive strike from Israel.
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Border Police detain Palestinian carrying knife near Tomb of the Patriarchs in Hebron (Haaretz)
from the article: U.S. Defense Secretary: A nuclear Iran is not inevitable