People act as if 2006 was the first 'all out' conflict between Hezbollah and Israel. But there was also 1993 and 1996 (not to mention the whole 1982-2000 period) Each of those events had the same pattern,. An incident of some kind flares into an Israeli bombardment of Lebanon. HA responds with a rocket barrage on Israel. Israeli attempts to suppress the rocket fire through the air force or ground maneuvers are unsuccessful. Israel asks the US to negotiate a ceasefire. Rinse and repeat a few years later. Though each time the scale and intensity grew bigger worse, the pattern has always held. Ah! But next time will be different! This time we'll REALLY destroy their rockets! Whatever. What will happen is Israel's bombardment will be worse. HA's rocket fire will be much worse. The IAF will be great at destroying buildings but not missiles. Ground invasion will get bogged down. Reservists will stay mobilized indefinitely. People in Israel will be upset that life in wartime isn't as comfortable as it used to be. And then, you will ask the US to negotiate a ceasefire, the situation having changed little except for lots of dead people. Some people never learn.
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France will not take in more than 30,000 refugees, prime minister say (DPA)
from the article: Next Israel-Hezbollah war will be worse, says U.S. analyst