flawed conclusions - Comment - Israel News | Haaretz Daily Newspaper
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    • zionist forever
    • 03.05.12 | 18:01 (IDT)

    Fact No 1 - Does is matter who is responsible for the coalition breaking down, isn't the only important thing now the coming election? Fact No 2 - If Bibi had gone full term he wouldn't have had to hold an election till 2013 and if he wants to get Obama to attack Iran then the last thing he would want to do is hold an election firstly because there is no guarantee he would win the election and if he lost he can't be sure the next government will not just accept the idea of a nuclear Iran and even if Bibi does win the election he doesn't know who his coalition partners will be and they not support his position on Iran. If he waits until after the US election he can keep putting the pressure on Obama because he knows the closer Obama gets to an election the weaker he gets so there is no logic in the idea that he is holding an election because of the US election. Fact No 3 - Who wins the US elections has no influence on who wins the Israeli elections and also lets not forget under the right wing George W Bush Israel had a right wing PM ( Sharon ) and then a centerist party ( Kadima ) a party that was very much elected on a sympathy vote for Sharon and Olmert was replaced by the right wing Bibi and Bush was replaced by the left wing Obama. Clinton left office nearly 16 years ago now and the pattern that existed with George H W Bush and his immidiate successor is broken, these are different times back in the 90s everybody was full of hope because we had just signed oslo and so the left were the natural choice for many also Labor hadn't imploded but then we had the intifada and the right gained power. Fact No 4 - Once again if Bibi wants to get Obama to attack Iran the last thing he is going to want to do is hold an election because he cannot control the outcome of the election and as long as he is PM during the run up to the US election he will have alot of influence, if he loses he may end up with somebody weak like Shelly Y who will say how high when Obama says jump and so nothing will be done to stop Iran so there is no logic in the idea that Bibi would want to hold an early election over Iran. If the election is in September and Bibi plans to do something about Iran he would probably go for June - July that way he still has time to get back to his campaigning and if he takes out Iran and he pulls it off ( provoke Iran into attacking Israel and force Oama to do the job because he is in just 6 months away from an election and he can't be seen to abandon Israel in its hour of need so close to an election so Bibi will force Obama into attacking Iran kicking and screaming, it would also be disasterous for Obama and cost him the election because attacking Iran is no popular amongst American voters so for Bibi its great Obama takes out Iran and Obama who Bibi hates loses the election so Bibi kills 2 birds with 1 stone but to do that he needs to remain in power so it would have been foolish to call an election if he wanted to deal with Iran. The Israel election is not a referendum on Iran because Iran is not the central issue of these elections. What the elections do is give the incoming PM a mandate to carry our operations like this because the elected government is responsible for making policies on defense matters not protestors in Tel Aviv.

    from the article: Israel's summer of discontent
    First published 01:27 19.07.12 | Last updated 01:27 19.07.12
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