The Cuba Crisis was diffused because two state actors decided to deal. In the current situation we have multiple actors including non state actors (Hezbollah, Hamas, Settlers) that are not in communication. Consider the following scenario. An incident is ?staged? on the Lebanese border that initiates a limited retaliation by Israel. Hezbollah escalates and hits back forcing Israel to retaliate with more force. Further escalation leads to missiles on IAF airfields, Tel Aviv and Ben Gurion Airport. Israeli reaction gets Syria involved that attacks Dimona nuclear facility. Settlers, out of control, blow up Al Aksa and the Dome of the Rock. Jordan and Egypt annul peace accord and mobilise. In the panic, with missile reigning down on Tel Aviv, settlers instigate ethnic cleansing forcing Palestinians out the West Bank and into Jordan. IAF bombs Damascus, Iran attacks Israel, US attacks Iran, Iran closes Hormuz Strait, China starts shooting down US military satellites and paralyses operations by cyber attack. The world witnesses the second hostile nuclear event, etc. etc. Everyone looses, very similar to Europe 1914 but with more fire power and no central front line. Contingency plans anyone?
Israeli soldier lightly wounded after being hit by car south of Hebron (Haaretz)
from the article: Obama must stop demanding the impossible from Israel