The real stage 1 is that Israel pursues a bad policy which is known to have failed already or that it is clearly a failure waiting to happen. After that comes the inevitable crisis (stage 2), which Benn calls stage 1. I will use Benn's examples for the pattern:--1. The "siege" on Gaza: Originally, the "siege" policy was motivated as the means to make the Gaza population unhappy with Hamas rule and induce them to overthrow it. It didn't work, and actually should not have been expected to work because historically, Arab masses do not overthrow rulers, Arab militaries do that, but in Gaza Hamas IS the military. The policy failed to achieve its goal, but was continued nevertheless under changing explanations (the latest was the Shalit excuse). The "flotilla" incident was just the inevitable crisis.--2. Continuing expansion of settlements. Clearly, a discussion on dividing a pizza cannot proceed while one side keeps eating the pizza. This is also why ending settlement construction was in stage 1 of the Bush "roadmap". If Israel is really interested in peace talks, a continuing construction will inevitably lead to a crisis.--3. Here is an example that is still waiting to happen, where a future crisis and reversal is inevitable. Israel keeps occupying the Golan. Annexation is against international law, and a war already happened (with Egypt and Syria) because of such a thing, so this will end one day, but only after an avoidable disaster.
U.S. to defend Syrian rebels with airpower, including from Assad (Reuters)