Yes I think your reasoning is probably wrong. In 2006 the start of the conflict was caused by Hezbollah killing 8 soldiers and kidnapping a further two. This event was actually preceded by Hezbollah rocketing with Katushyas of several Israeli villages (so don't talk about the current situation being worse than then). If Israel had done nothing in response then I believe that Hezbollah would have ratcheted up these kind of attacks to levels way in excess of what has happened recently. I think that Hezbollah is just dipping its toes in the water at the moment to see how far it can go before getting a response from Israel. This will be a mistake for Hezbollah as I believe that Israeli intelligence will have improved since 2006 and in any future conflict Israel will target more of Hezollah infrastructure than military hardware.
Law expanding definition of terrorist activity passes first Knesset reading (Haaretz)
from the article: Lebanon army dismantles 4 rockets aimed at Israel