(1) Israeli deterrence and Iran as a peaceful nation - Comment - Israel News | Haaretz Daily Newspaper
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    • Raanalya
    • 11.09.06 | 03:23 (IDT)

    Even if one takes Pedatzur hypothesis at face value, it all hinges on Israel's ability to maintain MAD deterrence which is quite challenging for the following reasons: 1) It's not clear whether the Israeli arsenal is functional at all and whether Israel has the logistic ability to mobilize and operate it after being hit. The last war in Lebanon would no doubt encourage Iran et al. to assume that there is a good chance that Israel's nuclear power has been exaggerated. In particular, if nuclear response if not completely automatic, then Iranians well may assume Israel is going to have cold feet when it comes to the moment of truth, or be held back by the US. 2) The Dolphin nuclear subs are too few and perhaps too fragile to be counted on for second strike capabilities. These war machines are so complex and fragile, almost always 50% of your firepower has to be off service, in maintenance. (to be continued ...)

    from the article: Let them have nukes
    First published 00:00 07.09.06 | Last updated 00:00 07.09.06
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