A renegade rabbi, an ultra-right party, and Kadima battle to pass the threshold
Haaretz poll finds that although Kadima and right-wing Otzma Leyisrael are likely to win Knesset seats, other parties such as Rabbi Amsalem's Am Shalem, the Greens, and Eretz Chadasha, are still far below the threshold.
Twenty days before the election for the 19th Knesset, the battle over which parties will cross the electoral threshold is wide open. Only Kadima and Otzma Leyisrael will pass the threshold and receive two seats each, according to a poll by Haaretz and the Dialog Institute published on Wednesday morning.
In recent weeks three parties in particular have wavered on the verge of the electoral threshold: Kadima, Rabbi Haim Amsalem’s Am Shalem party and Otzma Leyisrael, the party of Michael Ben Ari and Aryeh Eldad. The electoral threshold is the minimum proportion of the total votes cast that a party needs in order to get into the Knesset.
Am Shalem has dropped below the threshold with 1.3 percent, after the party received three seats in a Haaretz poll published on November 22. About two weeks earlier, Amsalem was shown winning four seats in various surveys carried out at the request of Channel 2, Channel 10 and the Knesset channel.
As for the other parties that are below the electoral threshold, Rabbi Amnon Yitzhak’s party Hakoah Lehashpia received 1.0 percent of the votes while the Greens receive 0.9 percent. Eldad Yaniv’s Eretz Chadasha, which is receiving broad coverage on the social networks, receives 0.7 percent and is far from the electoral threshold. The joint party of Green Leaf and the Liberals receives 0.6 percent.
The Hayisraelim party of David Kon, a television presenter on Channel 9, which according to a Yedioth Ahronoth poll last month passed the threshold, receives only 0.5 percent. Netzah, the Lithuanian Haredi party that split from United Torah Judaism, receives 0.3 percent, and Ahim Anahnu, Mitkademet-Liberalit-Demokratit and Da'am receive 0.2 percent each. Closing the list is the Hatikva Leshinuy party with 0.1 percent.
For those trying to decide whether to vote for other parties, a very interesting picture emerges from the data about the parties hovering around the electoral threshold. The respondents were asked whether they are certain of their vote, and if they replied that they aren’t, they were asked for what other party they would vote. The survey indicated that 62 percent of Kadima voters are trying to decide whether to vote for the party, with 25 percent of them also considering whether to vote for Likud, 6 percent for Labor and 6 percent for Tzipi Livni’s Hatnuah party.
It was also found that 58 percent of those voting for Am Shalem are still trying to decide, and that 29 percent are considering giving their vote to Shas and 29 percent to Habayit Hayehudi.
According to the survey, the Otzma Leyisrael party is the most stable in terms of “definite votes,” with only 10 percent trying to decide whether to vote for Naftali Bennett’s Habayit Hayehudi instead. It was also found that 25 percent of Eretz Chadasha voters are considering voting for Green Leaf and 50 percent of Ahim Anahnu voters are considering Eretz Chadasha.
The survey was conducted on December 31, 2012, by Dialog under the supervision of Prof. Camil Fuchs of Tel Aviv University and included 666 respondents. Among those who answered the phone, the percentage of response was 32 percent, while the random error rate for each individual question is 3.9 percent.